The (Lonely) Reds and Competitive Balance
2010 Reds Spring Training: No. 5 Starting Pitchers
By Ashland A-Team for RedLetterDaze.com If you want to know reason numero uno why it’s so exciting to be a Reds fan these days, look no farther than the men on the mound each day. With a starting rotation that perfectly balances young and old one through four and a plethora of viable options battling it out for the fifth spot–not to mention a technically sound pitching coach–some baseball experts are predicting the Reds will make a playoff run on the strength of their staff. With that said, and as we continue our spring training “Competition Series,” let’s look at the options for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. (note: for those who, like me, are a bit statistically challenged, look here for a detailed look at Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP) The Youngsters LH Travis Wood 2009 Stats (AA): 9-3, 1.21 ERA/2.75 FIP in 119 innings 2009 Stats (AAA): 4-2, 3.14 ERA/4.00 FIP in 48 innings * The Case For: He may not be getting the most attention, but make no mistake: Travis Wood is the most decorated of the young pitchers in camp this year. His 2009 campaign won him the Reds’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award and the MiLB.com AA Pitcher of the Year awards. After an offseason of working with Cliff Lee, Wood came into camp armed with a new cut fastball. Of all the young Reds talent, he seems the best equipped to not only make the jump to the big leagues, but to stick it out all season. * The Case Against: Is 48 AAA innings enough? And does he have more talent than Chapman or Leake, or more experience than Maloney? LH Matt Maloney 2009 Stats (AAA): 9-9, 3.08 ERA/3.10 FIP in 143 innings 2009 Stats: 2-4, 4.87 ERA/5.41 FIP in 40.2 innings * The Case For: In September, Reds fans got a glimpse of what Matt Maloney is capable of in the majors–a 2-1 record, 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in three starts. In those 17 innings, Maloney did everything and more than the Reds could ask out of the fifth spot. Couple that effort with the fact that he has nothing left to prove in the minors, and it would appear that he’s in the driver’s seat for this job. * The Case Against: 65.6 percent. That’s the percentage of batted balls that were in the air against Maloney in 2009, which simply makes him a terrible fit for Great American Ball Park, where he owns a 5.96 ERA in four starts. Fluke or expectation for such an extreme flyball pitcher in the Reds’ home park? LH Aroldis Chapman 2008-2009 Stats (Cuban League): 11-4, 4.03 ERA/130 K in 118 innings * The Case For: Aside from his electric stuff and phenomenal talent, the best argument for Chapman going north (or, rather, northeast) with the club is this: Cuban defectors Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras had, arguably, their best seasons in their debuts as the league adjusted to them. No one has seen Chapman other than grainy Youtube clips and international competitions, and with his improved mechanics, it’s easy to envision a scenario where he blows through the league his first time around on talent and mystery alone. This could certainly bode well for the team’s 2010 playoff hopes. *The Case Against: Forget his contract. Forget his age. Before you crown the Reds Central Champs with Chapman leading the way, remember his career high season in innings is 118. That means if he’s with the team all season, chances are solid he’ll best that mark by 50-60 innings, enough to give Tom Verducci a heart attack. RH Mike Leake 2009 Stats (ASU): 16-1, 1.71 ERA in 142 innings * The Case For: You may have heard of some young fellow named Steven Strasburg. I hear he’s a fairly solid prospect. Well, Leake pitched more innings (142 to 109), in a tougher conference (Pac-10 vs. Mountain West) with a proximate ERA (1.71 to 1.32) last year. It’s officially okay to get excited about Mike Leake, folks. Get real excited. * The Case Against: Zero. That’s the number of minor league innings Leake has logged. If the Reds had no other options, that might not be such a huge deal. As it is, though, that number sticks out like a sore thumb. The Veterans RH Micah Owings 2009 Stats: 7-12, 5.34 ERA/5.67 FIP in 119 innings * The Case For: Owings enjoyed his best year, in 2008, with Bryan Price as his pitching coach. The talent is undeniably there and if he can * The Case Against: Simply put, Owings is built for the bullpen. His ERA was better (3.06 to 5.74), albeit in a small sample (17 innings), and teams thrived on seeing him once and figuring him out. The first time through the order, hitters didn’t fare so well (.227/.330/.330), but the second time? .321/.415/.571. Yikes. RH Justin Lehr 2009 Stats (AAA, Philly):5-2, 4.75 ERA/4.95 FIP in 41 innings 2009 Stats (AAA, Cincy):8-1, 2.51 ERA/3.13 FIP 75 innings 2009 Stats: 5-3, 5.37 ERA/6.30 FIP in 65 innings * The Case For: A feel-good story last summer, King Lehr is the anti-Maloney. While his FIP leads you to believe he was somewhat lucky, in truth, a career 43 percent groundball percentage makes him tailor-made for GABP. He also got stronger late in games last year (opponents hit a paltry .167/.247/.333 against him the third time through the order), and you’ve got an argument that Lehr is the most likely candidate to provide 180 solid innings in 2010. * The Case Against: He’s 32 and been a journeyman the past six seasons. The Reds wonder how much of his success in the bigs was lack of batter familiarity. Lehr’s best attributes, leadership and clubhouse presence, were on display as he helped teach Homer Bailey the splitter that helped him thrive in 2009. That presence is invaluable at AAA, where he’d be working alongside a rotation with talent that rivals the big club. RH Kip Wells 2009 Stats (Washington/Cincinnati): 2-5, 5.33 ERA/4.84 FIP in 70.2 innings (7 starts) * The Case For: While the overall stats are nothing to write home about, Wells’ numbers as a starter for the Reds (2-2, 4.78 ERA in 7 starts) weren’t terrible, and further, they were misleading. Three of his seven outings were quality starts and only once did he pitch the team out of a game. If you like Lehr’s pitching style, consider this: Wells’ career groundball percentage is 49.3, which is, again, perfect for Cincinnati. * The Case Against: We have over a decade of evidence that Wells isn’t very good–67-99 career record with an ERA/FIP of 4.71/4.65. RH Mike Lincoln 2009 Stats: 1-1, 8.22 ERA/9.27 FIP in 23 innings * The Case For: Lincoln is owed $2 million in 2009, and as a starter, perhaps the Reds get some value for him. After all, a quick glance at the bullpen tells you that there’s simply no room for Lincoln there. After all, when Lincoln was used as a middle reliever pitching in one inning or less in 2009, he gave up 19 runs in just 12 innings. So, if there’s a long shot that the team can get value for that sunk money, there’s a reason to at least check. * The Case Against: In 2000, Mike Lincoln was primarily a starter. He went 3-10, with and ERA/FIP of 6.84/5.36 in 76 innings. Enough said. My Take: While it’s easy to get excited about the Reds long term, the question has to be asked: What about April 2010? What about May? June? In my mind, after looking objectively at each candidate, the best scenario for the Reds is to call up Chapman in May or June and unleash his 100 mph fastball on the league. If that happens, get ready for Hideo Nomo comparisons, who came up unknown for the Dodgers in 1995, won 13 games and helped them to the playoffs. Until then, though, I’m absolutely shocked to report that the best option to tread water is . . . Kip Wells. If he pitches to his career numbers, he’ll fit well with the Reds’ infield, give the team a quality start about half the time, and keep the team in the game in the vast majority of his outings. For two months or so, which is all he would be needed if the Reds call Chapman up in June, he won’t kill the team, and should be a better option than Lehr, Maloney or Owings. Now it’s your turn–what do YOU think?
bring that ERA down to around 5.00, with his bat (career .300/.331/.547 with 8 HR in 170 ABs), it may be worth giving him one more shot.
2010 Reds Spring Training: The Starting Catcher
By GrizzlyFox for RedLetterDaze.com There’s going to be a lot of debate this spring about who should be the Reds’ starting catcher, veteran Ramon Hernandez or second-year defensive whiz Ryan Hanigan. We all know the score: Hernandez will likely be the starter because of his offense, $3 million paycheck and manager Dusty Baker’s penchant for veterans. But Hanigan gets plenty of voices because of his terrific defense and .361 on-base percentage. Who should get the nod? That’s why this segment of RLD’s spring training “Competition Series” takes a closer look at each player. There are compelling arguments for each side. In fact, after looking over the stats, you might argue it all comes down to the opponent’s starting pitcher, who that day’s Reds starter prefers behind the plate, and perhaps the most debatable measure of all, the intangible. Many things in baseball don’t show up in stats and perhaps that is more so at catcher than any other position. Here’s the breakdown of the team’s catching competition. By the end, you still might be challenged to pick the starter: The Counting Stats Hanigan: .263/.361/.331 OPS of .692 with 10 extra-base hits, 22 runs and 11 RBI in 251 at-bats. Hernandez: .258/.336/.362 OPS of .699 with 19 extra-base hits, 25 runs and 37 RBI in 287 at-bats. With men on base–Hanigan: .184/.296/.194 for an OPS of .490; Hernandez: .310/.414/.451 for an OPS of .866. However, Hanigan hit .160/.264/.226 for a .491 OPS over his last 106 at-bats. Some blame this on a neck injury, others blame it on an increase in fastballs seen. The guy is an above-average hitter when it comes to off-speed pitches, but the numbers show that he’s atrocious against fastballs, and it seemed like he saw many more of those in the second half. OBI Percentage–The percentage of guys a player drives in other than himself that are on base when he comes up. For players with over 200 ABs in the NL, Ramon Hernandez was No. 36, knocking in 16.1 percent of the runners that were on base when he came up. Out of 181 qualifying players, Hanigan ranked No. 181, knocking in a paltry 5.1 percent of the runners that were on base when he batted. Fun Stat Time Years from now we’ll make some oblique reference to the 2009 team, go to Baseball Reference.com on our tablet computer and see these harsh realities of OBI percentage: No. 163, Jerry Hairston No. 175, Adam Rosales No. 177, Chris Dickerson No. 178, Paul Janish No. 179, Willy Taveras No. 181, Ryan Hanigan The Reds invested 1,587 at-bats in five of the worst seven players in the NL when it came to knocking guys in, and 1,927 at-bats in six of the worst 22. Luckily, three of those guys are gone with none as projected starters. Defensive Measures Some say Hanigan was among the best in the NL last year based on wild pitches, runners caught stealing, passed balls, runners prevented from attempting steals, etc.. If any of you understand that enough to make a more educated statement then I did, go for it. For now, suffice to say he’s fairly good from that standpoint. Hernandez came to the Reds from the Orioles with a reputation for being lax on blocking pitches, erratic playcalling and pitchers not wanting him behind the plate. Thus, Mr. R’s moniker of calling him a “dog,” which has somehow morphed into a nickname of affection. Dusty Baker was right last spring when he said Hernandez was playing for his career and we saw very little of his old reputation. In fact, he was a consummate teammate, mentoring the Hispanic players, playing first base nicely in Joey Votto’s absence and taking a leadership role in the clubhouse. But physically, defensively, the numbers don’t lie. When Hernandez was behind the plate, the team had a 4.45 ERA and 23-30 record; Hanigan was at 4.29 and 34-38. As for picking off baserunners, Hanigan threw out 21 of 49 (43 percent) potential base stealers, Hernandez 18 of 51 (35 percent). The league average on catcher ERA was 4.53, so they did very well behind the plate. What should really scare Reds fans is this indisputable fact: Corky Miller was sensational. He threw out 35 percent of base stealers (4-for-11) and had a 3.29 ERA in 164 innings. Corky is back with the Reds on a minor league deal. Value Stats Value Above Replacement Player, or VORP, does not consider defense. But even with Hanigan’s offensive issues, he rated 5.1 runs above replacement, Hernandez 2.4. As for Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, which again only considers offense for catchers, Hanigan was at .9 and Ramon Hernandez was at .4, The next time someone tells you WAR is the end-all, be-all in evaluating a player, pop in tapes from the 2009 Cincinnati Reds’ season. Show them all of Hanigan’s at-bats and then show them all of Hernandez’ at-bats. Ask them which player they think was more valuable offensively. This is where “clutchiness” comes into play. Subjective Look Remember SoccerDad’s posts about catching techniques last year and Hanigan’s problems? He seemed to have trouble framing pitches and would not give pitchers a set target until he saw fit. I remember one at-bat where he gave a pitcher five different looks in five pitches. Sometimes you see the inside of the glove, sometimes you see the back of the glove, sometimes he flips it when the pitcher is in mid-motion, etc. The point is he’s never giving the pitcher the same target and he was almost always moving it around during the windup. Pitchers need an established target and Hanigan was never stationary. As for Hernandez, he turns 34 in May and is coming off knee surgery that shortened his 2009 to just 81 games. It’s probably not realistic to expect him to catch 120-140 games. In fact, if we look at this competition logically, it seems the Reds have Starter 1-A and Starter 1-B, with Starter 1-A getting around 100 starts because of differing skill sets. My Take For me, just about everything points to Hanigan being the overall more competent catcher. But Hanigan is so bad at the things that he is bad at that it is just not possible for me to say he should be the everyday guy. I’d go with Hernandez to open the season and give Hanigan his starts, but with no expectation that he does even as good as his year-end numbers last year. If he indeed proves the second half of last year was caused by his injury or fatigue and starts hitting better with men on base, he’ll gradually get more playing time with eyes on him being the starter in 2011. But when you hit .160 over your last 100 at-bats and get absolutely dominated all season long with runners on base, you don’t get much leeway in my book–or the manager’s.
2010 Reds Spring Training: Utility Infield Competition
Now that Jonny Gomes has been signed and the 40-man roster appears set for spring training, we can turn our attention to the competitions taking place in Goodyear. The first spring game is March 5 against the Indians, so we can now start reviewing and analyzing the players (and their positions) who will be vying to come north for Opening Day. Today, we look at the utility infield situation. On the surface, the competition looks rather cut-and-dried. But upclose, this could be a very intense battle for a place on the team. If we figure 11 pitchers, two catchers and the four starting infielders, that leaves either five or six outfielders and two or three utility infielders. If they take 12 pitchers north, that means even deeper competition for one of the prized utility spots. Here’s what we know: * Barring injury, Aaron Miles makes the team because of his $2.7 million salary. He’s coming off a horrible, injury-plagued year with the Cubs. But in the three prior seasons with the Cardinals, he averaged 443 plate appearances and .290 batting average per season. He puts the ball in play. The metrics don’t like him, and his best position is second base, where the Reds have a far superior player. But as a versatile position player who can hit off the bench, he’s a good but expensive fit. Unquestionably, the Reds “might” get equal or better production from a cheaper option, such as Drew Sutton. But in order to get rid of Willy Taveras, the Reds had to take Miles’ salary. It’s that simple. No use bemoaning Miles’s roster spot very much–at least, not yet. * With Gomes signed, there’s almost nothing rookie Todd Frazier can do to make the team. The Reds want him to play everyday and he’s slotted to be the third baseman at Louisville. Things could get interesting if Frazier outperforms OF Wladimir Balentien as a right-handed bat option or Scott Rolen gets hurt. But logically, you have to expect the team’s No. 1 prospect is going to the minors for AAA at-bats, just as 2b Chris Valaika and SS Zack Cozart will play everyday for the Bats instead of sitting on the bench for the Reds. * After Miles, here’s who is fighting for a roster spot: Paul Janish–The obvious and sentimental choice, given his amazing defense at shortstop and the fact starting SS Orlando Cabrera, a two-time former Gold Glover, is 1,000 years old and coming off his worst defensive season of his career. If Janish could have hit .240-.250 while playing the last two months of 2009, perhaps O-Cab is never signed. But there is absolutely nothing in Janish’s minor- or major-league hitting profiles that suggest he’ll ever hit enough to warrant an everyday slot. The question thus becomes: Do the Reds use the last spot on the 25-man for a defensive-only player? O-Cab routinely plays 150 games a year. And those who want to berate his defensive metrics last year never consider the awful condition of the Oakland infield year-in and year-out. Or, how, once O-Cab was traded to Minnesota, his metrics improved . . . for an aging infielder on artificial turf. Meaning, will O-Cab be that bad at GABP for the Reds needing to carry Janish? Drew Sutton–It’s easy to summarily dismiss the switch-hitting Sutton from the mix, given he’s almost 27 and has 76 not-so-impressive PAs in the majors. But what the Reds see is an athletic 6-foot-3 player with gap power and some lift on the ball who doesn’t strike out much while taking his share of walks (.378 minors OBP). The Reds gave Sutton time in the outfield (39 innings) late last year and he’s tall enough, steady enough, to fill in at first base. Of all the competition among middle infielders, Sutton is where eyes should be focused. His natural position is second base but he played surprisingly well at shortstop (16.9 UZR/150) in 28 innings. He had an excellent September and, most of all, he’s a natural No. 2 hitter. For those days when O-Cab needs a rest, you know Dusty Baker’s tendencies. Sutton can slide right into the slot, offensively and defensively. Should Paul Janish be worried about Drew Sutton? Miguel Cairo–One of the most baffling offseason moves. Even with the harmless invite to camp as a non-roster player, what could Cairo, age 35, and having drifted between the minors, majors and DL the past four seasons, possibly offer a team like the Reds with young infield prospects beating on the door. In three of the past four years, Cairo has appeared in just 99 MLB games. He doesn’t hit, he doesn’t get on base, he doesn’t really play shortstop. Barring an injury to one or two competitors, there’s almost no chance he makes the team and there’s no need for him at Louisville. So it’s anyone’s guess why he’s in Goodyear, just as it’s anyone’s guess what might happen if he has a really good spring. Remember McDonald, Darnell. Chris Burke–Dusty Baker caused an eyebrow to raise the other day when he sang Burke’s praises. Approaching 30, Burke, a first-round pick of the Astros in 2001, had his best years with them, notably 2006. But in the past two years, he has bounced between the minors and majors with the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Padres. In his last 651 PAs, he’s hit just .210-9-45. How is he a fit for the Reds? Burke is a Louisville native and the signing and invite to camp seems to be courtesy. Likely to be veteran roster fill with the Bats. Wilkin Castillo–Released from the 40-man this offseason after coming off shoulder surgery, the Reds took a good gamble he wouldn’t be claimed on waivers and signed him to a minors deal. The front office loves Castillo, who was acquired in the Adam Dunn trade to Arizona in 2008, because he’s athletic, quick and can also catch and play outfield. He’s also a switch-hitter. The problem: At age 25 and six minors seasons, Castillo carries a .275/.316 line. Chances are he’s at Louisville in a very similar role he has played thus far in his career, but the easy lure of a third catcher is never far from the mind of an MLB
manager. Castillo does so many things that you can see the temptation to keep him. If has a great spring, does he force hands? It wouldn’t be a complete shock.
Peter Bjarkman Q&A: Part 3 . . . A Closer Look at Aroldis Chapman, the Pitcher
Last in a series The biggest move of the Reds’ offseason was signing a raw, hard-throwing, left-handed pitcher out of Cuba named Aroldis Chapman, a 21-year-old defector who was given $30.25 million over 10 years. Chapman is anything but a finished product; in fact, you might say he’s a bit of an underachiever to this point of his young career. In four years in the Cuban League, Chapman had only one winning season, a 3.72 ERA, just one shutout but 379 strikeouts in 341 innings. There’s also the issue of 210 walks. But Reds fans saw the shocking acquisition against bigger, richer teams as a sign that ownership is committed to rebuilding a storied franchise that has nine consecutive losing seasons. Chapman may–or may not–be ready to contribute in Cincinnati this year, but that hasn’t curbed the public’s curiosity about his promise. To better understand Chapman, Red Letter Daze turned to the foremost authority on Cuban baseball, American author and journalist Peter Bjarkman of Lafayette, Ind. Bjarkman has written more than 30 books, including many on Latin American baseball and Cuban themes. He is a regular contributor to BaseballdeCuba.com and his work is seen anywhere from Baseball America to the independent Havana Times. With over four dozen trips to Cuba, plus covering many of its national team’s worldwide tournaments, no one knows the island’s post-revolution baseball like Bjarkman. In part 1 of this series, Bjarkman and I set the groundwork for where Chapman comes from by discussing the structure and history of Cuban baseball, along with Bjarkman’s work as an American journalist chronicling Cuba’s pastime. In part 2, we discussed the country’s fertile baseball talent and Chapman’s place among that field. Here, in part 3, the series finale, Bjarkman (photo below) gives us an upclose look at Chapman’s Cuban baseball career and what his talent may portend in the major leagues, and the Reds: RLD: In the immediate aftermath of Chapman defecting while the team was in Rotterdam, what was the buzz around the Cuban team and the media covering the World Port Tournament? Bjarkman: There was of course a buzz among the Dutch press, but the Cubans had no press at the tournament, since Cuban media does not travel with the B-level squads. Back on the island there was no coverage of the incident at all, partly because that tournament (being the B squad) didn’t get much coverage and also because the Cuban media simply ignores defecting athletes and never writers about them. There was a good deal of chatter around the island by word of mouth, of course, as the informal grapevine is extensive. Among players and team officials there wasn’t much detectable stir. I think officials expected he might try to leave a second time and his being included on that roster might have been a kind of test to see whether he was worth any future investment, so to speak. I do think that some of the other young pitchers on the squad (guys like Freddy Asiel Alvarez, Miguel Alfredo González, and especially southpaw Maikel Folch) might have secretly been somewhat relieved, since the removal of a promising lefty increased their own chances for a coveted World Cup roster spot in September. Since the team played well in the aftermath and won the tournament, there certainly didn’t seem to be much noticeable impact in the Cuban camp. RLD: If you only had one Cuban pitcher to sign, and that pitcher was Chapman, is he a good risk? Bjarkman: Is he a good risk in the abstract? Certainly, because he can throw 100 mph. But if you are comparing the risk to the $30 million he received, or to Stephen Strasburg, the No. 1 overall pick of the Nationals in last year’s draft, then no. I don’t think you want to risk that kind of money on any pitcher who hasn’t thrown a single inning in professional baseball and who could blow his arm out tomorrow. If I had one Cuban pitcher to sign it would NOT be Chapman. It would be Yunieski Maya, who may be a few years older (27) but who has all the pitches and makeup of a big-league starter and could move into the Reds starting rotation tomorrow. The real winner in all this will be the team that grabs Maya, who is now in the Dominican Republic and carries a much lower price tag. RLD: If Chapman were available in the June amateur draft, money aside, where would he be drafted? Bjarkman: I am not a good person to ask this question since I focus on Cuban baseball and do not study the MLB prospects avai Strasburg was certainly a much bigger prospect–from what I have briefly seen of him in Haarlem, Beijing, and this year a couple of times on television. But I don’t know where Chapman would rank because I don’t know the other talent there this year. That would be a question for MLB scouts or the draft experts at Baseball America. RLD: At this stage of his development, where should Chapman start his career–big leagues or what level of the minors, A, AA, AAA? Bjarkman: I certainly wouldn’t rush him to the majors. He needs to build confidence and learn to get professional hitters out in the minors. He also needs to make a huge cultural transition. Therefore I might start him at AA. He would likely overmatch Class A hitters and thus wouldn’t learn as much there. And his confidence might be quickly shattered against everyday big league lineups. RLD: What will be THE most difficult adjustments to U.S. baseball and life for Chapman? Bjarkman: I know the kid as a performer on the field and not as a personality off the field. The obvious adjustment will be facing so many quality and intelligent hitters in the upper levels of pro baseball. In Cuban league play, he would face lineups that might have two, three or four AAA-level or big-league hitters at the most–but not an entire eight-man batting order of that kind of hitter. He could coast a lot on the island. But as far as personal or psychological adjustments, that it not a call I can make. RLD: Are you aware of any previously unmentioned physical issue with Chapman? Bjarkman: There are no injury problems that I know of. He didn’t spend any time on the sidelines with injuries during the last three Cuban League seasons. I don’t think that is a concern. He struggled at times with control, and with confidence and concentration, but not with arm problems. RLD: Speaking of control, tell us a little about his pitching. Bjarkman: There are several observations that can be made: Chapman did not display much notable improvement between his 2007 World Cup debut in Taiwan and his 2009 final National Series season on the island–in his command of pitches, in the control of his lethal fastball, or in his ability to understand and outfox opposition batters. I saw him come badly unglued when he couldn’t find the strike zone in early innings against a mediocre Puerto Rico club in the Huelga Tournament, a Havana trial for the 2008 Olympic roster. He also struggled with his composure when he began to lose his command of pitches against Japan in the crucial WBC matchup at San Diego in March 2009. RLD: Aren’t these the areas where pitching “maturity” seems to be lacking, as we’ve heard from scouts? Bjarkman: Yes, that is what I see as his drawbacks. But of course he is young, and he does, indeed, have loads of natural tools to work with. RLD: Chapman seemed to be regressing as a player. Is that true? Bjarkman: Once touted on the island as a can’t-miss star of the future, Chapman’s status had dipped considerably the past several seasons, despite twice leading the National Series in strikeouts. Perhaps there was too much early hype in Cuba–as there is now so much early hype about him in MLB circles–and he simply didn’t measure up to the overblown expectations. The low point came when he pitched poorly in the José Huelga Tournament in Havana a year ago June and was cut from the Beijing Olympic squad. He had another shot in the March World Baseball Classic and performed adequately but was hardly as dominating in his two outings against Australia and Japan as his press clippings suggested he might be. Chapman was then relegated to the second level Cuban squad for the June 2009 World Port Tournament and was expected to compete with a couple of other young aces–Freddy Asiel Alvarez and Miguel Alfredo González–for a September World Cup slot. But he never availed himself of the opportunity and instead fled the Cuban contingent on the eve of that Rotterdam tournament. For whatever reason, he believed (or someone convinced him to believe) that the time was right to make the break, perhaps before his star dipped even further in Cuba. RLD: In looking back, do you think its possible Chapman’s struggles on the mound the past year or so had something to do with pressing, knowing he was going to defect, and trying to impress “outside interests?” Bjarkman: Don’t misread my earlier comments here. He didn’t actually “struggle” in the Cuba League, but only failed to improve very rapidly on his early potential. He did have something of an off-year as the No. 2 Holguín starte RLD: We know about Chapman’s fastball and that he had location issues. What was your impression of his slider and changeup, which the Reds say have shown terrific potential based on a couple of mechanical adjustments they made recently? Bjarkman: I thought he had a pretty good changeup and maybe a better slider, but he didn’t tend to use them much when I saw him, mainly because he had trouble locating his pitches. He could blow away the majority of hitters in the Cuban League and thus threw the fastball most of the time. If Reds coaches have seen great potential with the adjustments they have gotten him to make, that doesn’t surprise me. He will have to learn quickly that he won’t overwhelm many top big league batter with a straight high-90s fastball as his only weapon. RLD: The Reds sent Chapman to Florida and Arizona just after his signing so he could work with their coaches. He was said to have made immediate improvement with just a couple of adjustments on grips and arm slots. So how much of his declining performance in Cuba do you think was physical talent and how much was mental or emotional? Bjarkman: Again, he didn’t really decline, he just didn’t leap forward. That said, I don’t think there was ever any lack of physical talent, just a limited knowledge of pitching strategy and technique. The adjustments you speak of here are not really “physical talent” which I take to mean arm strength and arm speed. Nor are they emotional issues. Now if by “mental” we mean a deeper understanding of the science of pitching, well then, yes, that is where the earlier shortcomings have been. You can have the best coaches in the world but you won’t improve without the ability to grasp and apply what you are being taught. I am not saying he won’t do that, just that he hasn’t appeared to do it well in the past. RLD: Chapman didn’t start pitching until he was 15. That’s late by American standards. Would you say what he’s going through now at almost 22 are typical growing pangs and a learning curve? Bjarkman: I think that is a stretch. Look, he pitched four full seasons in the Cuban “majors” under good coaching and he also had a couple of stints in tough international tournaments. Those were the experiences over the past half-dozen years where he has had plenty of chances to grow and mature as a pitcher. Had he been pitching in youth ball a couple of extra years when he was 12-14, would that have made much difference in where he is today? I doubt it. Also remember that most Little Leaguers in the US (even those on elite traveling squads) who are good athletes are playing football in the fall and basketball in the winter and also doing a million other things with their time. If Chapman hasn’t developed as some thought he should after he impressed in Taiwan in 2007, I doubt it is because he wasn’t pitching when he was 12. RLD: Would you be shocked if Chapman pitched in the big leagues this year? Bjarkman: No, of course not. I don’t think he should be rushed up there before he is ready, but with the money the Reds have invested, plus the pressures on management to improve the ballclub, Chapman might well get pushed up the ladder very fast. I would be more than mildly surprised to see him make a big impact in Cincinnati. But anyone who excels in the Cuban League definitely has big-league potential. It is just a matter of time and adjustments. I think the window might be a little wider than some hope, but there is definitely a lot of big-league potential in the kid. RLD: And finally, if Chapman harnesses his talent, gets good coaching and matures, would you be surprised if he became a top-of-the-rotation Major League pitcher? Bjarkman: No, again I think the potential is definitely there. Let’s end on this important note. I have never contended that Chapman was not a potential big leaguer. I have long argued–well before others discovered this fact at the 2006 inaugural World Baseball Classic–that most Cuban national team members are quality big leaguers. What I have tried to point out is only that Chapman was not the best pitcher in Cuba in recent years, and certainly not the “hottest” talent ever to come off the island–as some in the U.S. media quickly dubbed him. I believe there are a dozen or more pitchers in the Cuban League right now who are as good or better. Chapman is a work in progress. But the sky could well be the limit. –30– Editor’s Note: Many thanks and gratitude to Bjarkman for his insight, time and expertise in this series. Almost 8,000 words and more than 23 hours of writing and editing comprised the three parts of the Q&A . . . and we still left material on the cutting board. Unlike any other site on the Internet, Red Letter Daze brought you a look at Chapman by someone who understands the pitcher’s culture and background, and has seen him pitch in island and international competitions. Along the way, we got a fascinating lesson in Latin American baseball and an introduction of Cuban players through Bjarkman, BaseballdeCuba.com and Pete’s web site. –30–
lable in the amateur draft. The only time I see some of the top U.S. prospects is when they play on the USA national team, like Strasburg two summers ago at the Haarlem Baseball Week. So I can’t make this judgment:
r in 2008, but rebounded to lead the league in strikeouts in 2009. Of course he might well have been experiencing some internal turmoil if he was thinking about leaving home, but that is only speculation. When it comes to “impressing outside interests” then you might have expected even a higher level of motivation and also of performance. I don’t know why he didn’t show better in Holguín, where he was solid but not exactly spectacular. I don’t know that anyone else does either.
Peter Bjarkman Q&A: Part 1. . . Cuban Baseball Author, Expert Discusses Aroldis Chapman, Baseball on the Island and More
First in a series When the Reds surprisingly won the bidding for 21-year-old Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman earlier this month, a wave of excitement rushed over a fan base lulled to sleep by an offseason of team inactivity. The Reds gave the raw, developing fireballer $30.25 million over 10 years and spoke of him hopefully making an impact sooner rather than later. But long before the Reds signed Chapman, and immediately after, there have been many questions about his potential, makeup and true value. He defected from Cuba last summer with nowhere near the history or success of more experienced Cuban stars. In so many ways, Chapman and the culture of Cuban baseball is a mystery to most American baseball talent evaluators–and fans. So Red Letter Daze turned to the foremost authority on Cuban baseball, American author and journalist Peter Bjarkman of Lafayette, Ind. Bjarkman has written more than 30 books, including many on Latin American baseball and Cuban themes. He is a regular contributor to BaseballdeCuba.com and his work is seen anywhere from Baseball America to the independent Havana Times. With over four dozen trips to Cuba, plus covering many of its national team’s worldwide tournaments, no one knows the island’s post-revolution baseball like Bjarkman. So, in this first of a three-part series, Peter and I discuss the basics of Cuban baseball up close: RLD: How did you come about your love and passion for baseball in Cuba? Bjarkman: I had already published several books on major league baseball by the mid-1990s after leaving a long academic career (in 1987)) as, first, a high school teacher and, later, a college English/linguistics professor. One of those books was an academic history of baseball in Latin America, and that particular volume motivated my colleague, Mark Rucker, to contact me on the eve of the 1996 Atlanta Olympics about the possibilities of traveling to Cuba with him to research a pictorial record of baseball on the island. I jumped at the chance, and Mark and I launched our project, which resulted in a coffee table volume published in 1999, by following the Cuban national team to the Atlanta Games. We subsequently made our first trip to the island in February 1997. I now have over 50 visits. All this came at a time when the 1994 Major League Baseball work stoppage had pretty much soured me on the MLB product. Discovering the Cuban version of the game up-close and personal in 1997, as well as first seeing Olympic-style IBAF-sponsored tournament play a year earlier, opened whole new vistas for me. RLD: How are you able to travel back and forth to Cuba? Bjarkman: I have long held a series of OFAC-issued (U.S. Treasury Department) travel permits as a legitimate researcher. All my trips to Cuba have been legal. That hasn’t always made getting back and forth to the island easy, given the absence of U.S.-Cuba commercial air flights, but that has all been part of the adventure. I currently visit Cuba either twice or three times annually for usually about 10 days at a time. I have visited all provinces and major cities, as well as all the Cuban ballparks, with the exception of the off-the-coast region of Isla de la Juventud. My home base in Cuba, however, is the capital city of Havana, where most of my closest friends and contacts live. RLD: Explain the Cuban League structure to readers. Bjarkman: The Cuban League consists of 16 clubs divided into two regional divisions–Occidental or Western league, and Oriental or Eastern league. Fourteen of those ballclubs represent the 14 Cuban provinces; an additional two are located in the city of Havana. All players must compete on the roster of their native province; players are not bought or sold or traded, and they never change ballclubs. This does lead to some competitive imbalance and the same five or six clubs usually dominate the Cuban postseason. But the plus side is that competition is truly between individual cities or regions and thus fan and player loyalties are fierce. Fans can assume that the favorites they adopt will play for their hometown club until they retire. And players are competing for the honor of their hometown and not for whatever company team happens to be signing their paycheck at the moment. RLD: As we have seen from other Latin American and winter league baseball, the relationships between players and fans are extremely familiar and personal. Bjarkman: Right. Imagine a competition between the Red Sox and Yankees in which all the Sox were Boston kids and all the Yankees were Bronx natives. It would not be just one company’s rented Dominicans beating another company’s rented Asians or rented Californians. Cuban baseball has a whole different patriotic and non-commercial flavor that is very much to my liking. RLD: What is the most striking contrast of Cuban baseball? Bjarkman: This might be only meaningful to the fans of my generation (I am in my late 60s), but imagine returning to the cozy and intimate ballparks of the 1950s–primitive scoreboards, no rock music, seats close to the field for a couple of bucks, yet top-level talent on the field and an atmosphere free of anything but the game itself. That is Cuban League baseball as it still exists today. RLD: Most U.S. fans might be surprised, but Cubans do have their games on TV, right? Bjarkman: Oh, yes. Even watching televised games in Cuba is a rare treat. Announcers stick to bare-bones analysis, there are no commercial pitches, only a couple of camera angles reveal the game as it might be viewed from a perch behind home plate, and between innings the camera remains in the broadcast booth for a brief analysis/recap of the previous action. Anyone who wants to see what I am describing–that is, to get a true taste of Cuban League games–can visit our website at www.BaseballdeCuba.com and access nightly feeds of live broadcasts from the island. And you don’t need to understand the Spanish language to capture a sense of what Cuban baseball actually feels like. RLD: How are you so free to write about Cuban baseball as an American citizen and journalist? Bjarkman: In the same way that any local member of the Cincinnati sports media is free to write about the Cincinnati Reds. Most of my writing is done here in the USA, where I write principally (though not exclusively) in English rather than Spanish, and mostly for the North American-based www.BaseballdeCuba.com website, which is founded and maintained by my colleague, Ray Otero. But I have also written for a couple of Cuba-based media outlets such as the Prensa Latina English-language website (Latin America’s version of UPI), where I am accepted and recognized as a balanced and authoritative voice analyzing the Cuban League scene. I have been fortunate over the years to have built up relationships and trust with Cuban media, Cuban ballplayers and Cuban baseball officials. That trust and acceptance has been earned by persistence and hard work over more than a decade. RLD: Aren’t the Cubans suspicious of American journalists wanting access to stadiums and ballplayers? Bjarkman: Yes, and justifiably so. Often player agents and pro scouts have disguised their true identities in order to entice players into leaving the island, an activity that violates Cuban law. Also, many journalists have arrived on the doorstep of the Cuban Sports Ministry (INDER) wanting to write stories they swear will be balanced. Some have subsequently been given considerable access but published work in the states that openly slams Cuban baseball as a “slavery system,” or offers no honest portrait of some of the upsides of Cuban baseball, or worse yet, contains numerous distortions and fabrications invented to enhance some particular journalistic motive. I have built trust on the island by going back time and again, by never hiding my work from Cuban fans or baseball officials, and especially by being around the Cuban national team on the road in Europe and elsewhere overseas so regularly over the last decade. RLD: How long did it take you to build trust with INDER? Bjarkman: Certainly, it took quite a while. I have been making either one or two trips annually to other corners of the globe to watch the national team play–this year to the World Baseball Classic in Mexico and San Diego, and the World Cup in Italy, Spain a One big breakthrough came somewhat accidentally in March 2006, when I published several periodical pieces in Spanish on the eve of the first WBC, all predicting that Cuba would likely reach the finals. When that actually happened, I was seen by many in the Cuban media and in the league front offices as doing them a great service by explaining to the outside world and naysayers just how good their national sport actually is. That scored a lot of points for me on the island. RLD: Is there a common misconception about Cuba? Bjarkman: Yes, there is a different notion of social freedom and social responsibility in Cuba, but Americans should understand that Cuba is not a country where open speech and open travel is banned or shunned. In recent years I have been invited on several occasions to appear on television in Havana and have been asked in live interviews to comment on Cuba’s baseball versus the professional version, and also to comment on the careers of players who have left the country for the majors. The latter issue is not harped upon by the Cuban media but it is no longer taboo, either. RLD: There is a huge difference between social and political freedom of speech and that of baseball or sports. Bjarkman: This is not the time or place for that debate, but as an American journalist, I have appeared on Cuban radio broadcasts of numerous international tournament games being beamed back to the island from Europe. There is now an open dialogue about the current status of Cuban baseball on Havana radio and TV sportstalk shows, which often rather pointedly criticize the way league officials are running things. Cuban fans love to debate their baseball and many passionate criticisms reach the airwaves. The latest hot debate is the recent introduction of graphite bats, which have increased home run numbers. So writing and speaking about baseball in Cuba is not that difficult–even for an American. RLD: Just after the Chapman (above) signing, you wrote an article that was reprinted in the Havana Timesand sparked some controversy in Cincinnati. Some fans and members of the local media felt the story had a state-run influence. So, without us getting into specifics of the media controversy because it’s not germane to our subject, was any editing done by the Havana Times from your original submission to give the story a pro-Cuban slant? If so, can you point out any specifics? Bjarkman: The piece, like many others I have done for HT, was picked up with my permission from the original article published on my own Cuban League website. There was no editing done. Occasionally in the past, my HT pieces have been edited slightly to shorten them or to make them better fit the HT web format. But content has never been changed or given a different slant. RLD: Having the word “defector” in quotes throws off a lot of readers. Bjarkman: Regarding the use of “defector” in quotes, that may be a red flag for some U.S. readers and so be it. The term defector, itself, is a red flag for me, and that is why I choose to put it in quotes–simply to show I am using the term that everyone else is using but one I don’t agree with. I disagree with its use with ballplayers because it is a term usually reserved for individuals departing their homeland (or some organization they belong to) for “political” or philosophical reasons. I don’t believe–at least, in the huge majority of cases–the Cuban ballplayers leave for any reasons other than to advance their careers economically and improve their lives materially. That may be fine, but their departures are not personal blows consciously being struck at the Cuban government. When a Japanese player leaves the Tokyo Giants for a more lucrative contract with an MLB club, no one refers to him in print as a Japanese “defector” do they? Yes, I know that in the case of the Cubans they are not free to return to their country, so their situation is a bit different. But “defector” is a term than confuses their motives. But anyway, I am the one who chooses to put the term in quotation mar RLD: Now, Pete, the natural follow-up to that answer is all other foreign players are not renouncing citizenship and thus play in the U.S. with a work visa. Bjarkman: I once thought of using the term “deserters” instead, but that would be going too far in the other direction, and then everyone really would think I had some overt political agenda. I guess the thing that frustrates me the most is that it seems about the only time the North American media wants to write anything about Cuban baseball is when they have a story about “defection.” But there is so much more to focus on such as the remarkable event of Alexei Bell hitting two grand slams in the very first inning of the current season, in his first two at-bats of the year. There are some great baseball stories every week in Cuba and they rarely have anything to do with politics. RLD: Of course, you understand the topic of interest to the American fan is how a Cuban player such as Aroldis Chapman can impact his team and sport in the U.S. But let’s not veer off. People see the words “Havana Times” and make an assumption it’s a state-run media organization. It is not, correct? Bjarkman: Regarding the nature of HT, no it is not in any way affiliated with, sanctioned by, or run by the Cuban government or any other state government or corporate group. The journal was originally launched by a non-Cuban living in Havana, but the current editor of HT is actually operating the journal from a location outside of Cuba. You will also notice that one thing HT stresses is the view of many young, under-30 Cubans living on the island. I will not speak for the HT staff about their mission since they state that clearly in their own publication. If readers don’t want to believe the publication’s own statement of their mission then I don’t see why they would put any more faith in my own assessment. But I do think if anyone reads the publication they will see that it does provide an “open-minded” view. Yes, they are opinionated at times but what journal isn’t? HT is often critical of the problems in Cuba, but the fact that they also see some goodness as well as some negatives in the island’s society and its economic system might just be worth listening to. RLD: I was offered a chance to travel with the Orioles for their series in Cuba in 1999. My company wouldn’t pay for the trip so I declined. I have regretted it each time I hear of that series. My friends and peers who made the trip still gush over the experience. Bjarkman: I don’t know a single American who has traveled in Cuba who does not come home with a somewhat different–often drastically different–view of that nation, a perspective that contradicts the image usually offered in our mainstream media. Next: Aroldis Chapman and the Cuban baseball talent. –30– 
nd Holland. I have had to constantly be vigilant of my own image in the Cuban baseball community in order to be seen as an objective journalist and a historian bent on thoroughly revealing the fuller story of their national game to a North American audience.
ks, not any of my editors.
As Jocketty Sends Differing Messages, Reds Fans Need Some Reality
One week Uncle Walt says payroll might have
to be pared. Another week, after a widely negative fan base reaction, he tweets
a far different song. In interviews with the local Cincinnati media Monday,
Jocketty said:
“All
of that stuff was speculation by a number of different writers,” he told
Mark Sheldon of Reds.com. “They see that our attendance numbers are down
and that must mean our payroll will go down. We were grouped in with clubs that
are reducing payroll but we’re not in that position and hopefully won’t
be.”
Uncle Walt
told Ed Price of AOLFanhouse.com last week at the GM meetings: “We’re
going to probably have less to spend this year than we have in the
past. It just depends on how [ticket] sales go this offseason.”
So, which is
it, Walt?
The
Reds’ payroll last season was $73.5 million. With the Dog Hernandez signing on Monday for $3 million, the Reds have nine players totaling $64.75 mil in 2010. They were projected to be $16
million in the red after a dismal attendance decline in 2009, but they stand to
get about $9-10 mil for revenue sharing, MLB TV and Internet monies. Now take
the high number–$7 million in the red. They trim 10 percent–as widely discussed
in the front office–off payroll and whatcha got? The ballpark of break-even.
Somewhere
between last week and this week, ownership (Bob Castellini and the minority
owners) has come to some reality that the pulse of the fan base shows the Reds
simply cannot afford that 10 percent cut in payroll. Uncle Walt even said
Monday, when asked about possibly non-tendering arbitration-eligibles Laynce Nix and
Jonny Gomes, “We’re flexible.”
Since
when?
The Reds’ fan base might accept/understand payroll sitting still
from 2009. But if ownership expects season-ticket renewals and, most of all,
corporate sponsorships, to remain, say, even to last year with a 10 percent payroll reduction, they are
badly mistaken. Look at the Reds’ blogosphere.
But Reds fans need to understand they are not getting more payroll over 2009. They’re not getting a big-ticket free agent. The Reds not contenders in 2010 without more payroll unless they can stay close, get
lucky, stay healthy and everything falls their way. Fans can’t seem to grasp
this reality. They are wanting the impossible payroll or the fleecing trade.
They still don’t accept the damage done by the Schott and Lindner ownerships to
the farm system, which is just starting to come back to life.
Fans want
a quick-fix to winning now. There is no quick-fix. There has never been a quick-fix in pro sports. Until fans show up at GABP
and get behind the young, exciting talent that is trickling into the major
league product, the market will remain Cincinnati, not St. Louis. If only Reds fans
would see this exciting young talent–the organization’s best in over 20
years–as a draw instead of waiting for results.
For the first time in years,
Reds fans have something tangible they can put their hands around with Joey
Votto, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, Todd
Frazier, Juan Francisco, Yonder Alonso and Travis Wood.
Honest
to god, I don’t understand the fan-base mentality of win-first, see-ya-later.
A Beautiful, but Oh-So-Flawed New Reds Artwork
8 Things the Reds Must Address This Offseason
The day after the World Series is a magical time for the 29 teams that aren’t hungover this morning. The offseason officially begins, which means tomorrow the PIrates and Royals are officially eliminated from the 2010 race, as someone hilariously posted at MLBTradeRumors.com. Players can now start filing for free agency and some will have their 2010 options decided. Teams have a 15-day window to negotiate with their own free agents. Players can begin negotiating with all other teams Nov. 20. The general managers meetings are Nov. 9-11 and that’s usually where groundwork for trades is laid out. The Winter Meetings are in Indianapolis Dec. 7-11. Here are other important offseason dates: * Dec. 1–Last date for a team to offer salary arbitration to their ranked free agents in order to be eligible for compensation if the player signs elsewhere. * Dec. 7–Last date for the player to accept or decline arbitration. * Dec. 8–Deadline for outrighting players off the 40-man roster prior to the Rule V draft. * Dec. 10–Rule V draft. * Dec. 12–Deadline for offering players contracts for 2010 or they become free agents. * Jan. 5-15–Salary arbitration filing period. * Jan. 19–Team and players exchange arbitration figures. * Feb. 1-21–Arbitration hearings. Depending on which way the wind is blowing, the Reds will either have a lot of work to do this offseason or not very much. But here’s the core of business they have at hand: 1. 40-Man Roster Decisions Here’s a look at the Reds’ roster the day after the World Series. Now here’s a look at prospects–thanks to Doug Gray at Reds MinorLeagues.com–that need to be protected and might be attractive to other teams in the Rule V draft. By Doug’s count, the Reds have 11 minor-leaguers they need to protect. I say nine, but that’s here nor there. The point is they need to clear off substantial 40-man space. That shouldn’t be too hard–Kip Wells, Kevin Barker, Darnell McDonald, Corky Miller, Craig Tatum and Justin Lehr are easy drops and can likely be re-signed to minor league deals. That’s six. Interesting decisions will need to be made with oft-injured Daryl Thompson, and an organizational decision between utility infielders Drew Sutton and Adam Rosales. That could get the open roster spots to eight, leading to the next big item. . . . 2. Gomes and Nix Arbitration Decisions Both are eligible for arbitration and both could be non-tendered a contract and made free agents, opening two more roster spots. Gomes figures to get somewhere around $2-$3 million at the table and Nix would likely come in at about $1.3 mil. Obviously, both figures can be negotiated down with the players. Question is: Can the Reds afford these guys, or can they afford to let them go? Gomes added a lot of energy and power to the team and he’s likely to get some serious looks from other teams, especially as a DH in the American League. What should the Reds do? What does Gomes want to do? My guess is the brass will wait to hear Gomes’ salary figure, see if it’s manageable, then make a decision. My feeling? He’s gone and Nix is non-tendered but offered a minor-league deal. But what do you think the Reds should do about these guys? 3. The Dog Hernandez Question No matter your opinion of catcher Ryan Hanigan offensively or defensively, the fact remains he wore down physically, he slumped badly once he went through the league twice and the pitching staff responded more positively to veteran Corky Miller. We can all agree that Hanigan is on the roster and at worst an 80-game receiver. There’s no way to shake his 11 RBI in almost 300 plate appearances. But the Reds have a catching issue with Dog Hernandez’s contract situation. Not in the name of Harry Wright will they pick up Dog’s $8.5 million option for 2010. There is a $1 million buyout. The Reds are expected to try and re-sign him at a more reasonable salary. But how much is considered “reasonable?” You figure since he missed two months from knee surgery that his market is slim. More recently we’ve heard murmurs that Dog might have a marketplace, with the Mets and Giants prominently mentioned. The Reds have until Nov. 15 to figure out what it will take to whistle the Dog home. But if he’s like any normal dog (or free agent), he’s going to sniff around the neighborhood a while. The Reds definitely need a backup plan for a second, reliable, 80-game or better catcher. Here’s a look at the trade market for catchers and the free agent possibilities. But as much as I have railed on Dog since his Baltimore disaster, he’s the Reds’ best option and he showed a lot when he played first base in Votto’s absence. He helps their offense in the 7-hole and perhaps makes the next question moot. Offer him a back-loaded two years at $8 million. 4. The Shortstop Question You just don’t get the feeling they are comfortable with Paul Janish’s bat as the everyday shortstop, but what are the options? Would minor-leaguer Zack Cozart, widely considered the shortstop of the future, be given a legit shot in spring training? Would the Braves swap Yunel Escobar for Brandon Phillips? Would they take a shot at Orlando Cabrera now that the Twins have acquired J.J. Hardy from the Brewers? Those are the type of questions being raised when it comes to improving the offense at shortstop. Free agent Marco Scutaro of the Blue Jays is an intriguing, if perfect fit. He’s a leadoff hitter who posted a .379 OBP this year while committing just 10 errors in 143 games. The Reds would not lose their first-round pick to sign him because they draft at No. 12 and the first 15 are protected. But Scutaro is 34, a late-bloomer coming off his best big-league season while playing defense at home on AstroTurf, and he’s wanting a multiyear deal and a ton of money. He’ll get it. The Reds have no money whatsoever, so they’ll have no Scutaro. 5. Cutting Payroll This one is almost an annual recital and you normally wouldn’t give it much more than a one-eyed look between napping. But with the Reds’ heavy financial losses in 2009 and cutting the payroll about 10 percent to around $67 million, attention immediately turns to one of the big contract players: * P Coco Cordero (2 years, $24 million due with $12 mil option in 2012 or $1 mil buyout); * P Aaron Harang (1 year, $12.25 mil due with $12.75 mil option in 2011 or $2 mil buyout); * P Bronson Arroyo (1 year, $11 million due with $11 mil option for 2011 or $2 mil buyout); * 2b Brandon Phillips (2 years, $17.75 million due with $12 mil option for 2012 or $1 mil buyout) Obviously everyone says Cordero should be the one to go but the Reds would have to eat substantial money for someone to take him. Ownership has not been willing to do That turns attention to Phillips and his friendlier contract. He would also bring major league-ready talent in return. Problem is, the Reds suffer from such poor public perception these days that dealing one of their most popular and charitable players would send the worst of signals to the fan base. Or, would the base understand the economics of the situation and be on-board for a Phillips deal if the talent return was equitable? Either way, the Reds need some payroll breathing room–especially since relievers Nick Masset and Jared Burton are arb-eligible as Super 2 status–so it will be interesting to see what they try to do with the big contracts. 6. Scrap-Heap Shopping Mercy, we get really tired of this approach by the Reds. But Uncle Walt has already said they won’t be very active in free agent shopping, so that leaves pickings from what is expected to be a large crop of non-tendered players, which is how they snagged Jonny Gomes . . . and Willy Taveras. Look for more of the typical non-roster invites to spring training with an eye on non-tendered pitchers. How much impact will the hiring of new pitching coach Bryan Price have in attracting rehab projects such as former Giants lefty Noah Lowery or former Orioles lefty Rich Hill? The Reds badly need starting pitching depth and finding an experienced left-hander would be all for the better. The only transaction fun we might have all winter is watching the non-tendered list. 7. Willy Taveras Contrary to popular sentiment, releasing or trading Taveras is not the cure-all for this team in 2010, so the offseason priority of removing him is minimized. Obviously the Reds will try to trade Taveras and his $4 million salary before DFAing him and eating the cake. Yes, he sucked last year. Yes, he can only play center field. Yes, he’s the cause of world hunger. A veritable d-bag. But if the Reds don’t re-sign Gomes and Nix, and with Chris Dickerson being injury-prone and knuckleheaded, and Drew Stubbs having less than two months’ experience . . . suddenly there’s a potential outfield shortage. No question Taveras doesn’t fit into the roster construction, but since he’s being paid so much money don’t be surprised if the Taveras situation isn’t addressed until spring training. Right now he has no market; a good spring could change the impression of 2009. 8. The Blockbuster Trade Uncle Walt had a great tendency to trade prospects for an established veteran when he was GM with the Cardinals. With much less payroll flexibility with the Reds, especially this year, Jocketty has done a wonderful imitation of a pigeon squatting on a statue. The Scott Rolen deal was forced by Castellini, and the Griffey and Gonzalez trades were initiated by the other teams. Jocketty was silent when the team badly needed a roster boost in early June. If not for Taveras’ quad injury in August we wouldn’t have seen Stubbs until September. Basically, Uncle Walt hasn’t done much of anything since taking over except for happy hours–and statue hunting. And yet, we can’t fully rule out the possibility of a big deal this winter, where contracts and talent even out. With whom and for what? That’s the question. The Reds have $57 million tied up in five players. They still need a middle-of-the-order bat and offensive upgrades at shortstop and catcher. Will they do anything? Or will 2010 come and go with pretty much status quo? When If 2010 passes without a run for the playoffs, look at how much money was tied up and lost in the Big Five contracts over three seasons with nothing to show. –30–
that in prior situations. Arroyo has obvious value and would also bring a decent player or two in return. But they can’t afford to lose pitching with Voltron out for most of the year.
mlblogsgoredlegs
Recent Comments