March 2010

The (Lonely) Reds and Competitive Balance

A popular topic from time-to-time is how baseball’s labor system affects small-market teams like the Reds. There are cries for a salary cap, like in the NFL, and that commissioner Bud Selig is a sorry, no-account fleabag because he doesn’t force this system onto the game so poor, lonely, playoff-starved teams like the Reds have a better chance at competing.
Of course, these same people also think Selig has unilateral power to circumvent federal collective bargaining. Laws, what laws?
Anyway, the point is this week’s Baseball America features a wonderfully detailed article by Maury Brown of the web site the Business of Baseball about the impact of MLB’s revenue sharing. Baseball had a record $6.6 billion in revenues in 2009. A ******** $433 million moved from high-revenue clubs to the low-revenue teams, such as the Reds. 
We don’t know how much each team received individually but we do know from last season that Reds owner Bob Castellini told his staff in a conference call just before the June draft that the team was projecting to lose $15 million. Based on the way the Reds restructured contracts, made trades and went about payroll business last offseason, money was, indeed, very tight.
The argument about competitive balance can get pretty heated. On one hand, the national media (for the most part) likes to point out that from 2000-2009, eight different teams won the World Series and 23 of 30 teams went to the playoffs. Only the Orioles, Expos/Nationals, Blue Jays, Rangers, Pirates, Royals and, yes, the Reds, didn’t make a postseason appearance. 
On the other hand, the different number of teams winning a World Series doesn’t say boo about true competitive balance top to bottom. One out of 30 teams winning a championship aren’t great odds. So, when you take out Oakland and Minnesota, well-run organizations with small-market revenues, it has been very difficult for teams in the bottom half of payroll to reach the playoffs. The top nine in payroll each year (or 30 percent of MLB) made the playoffs 58 percent of the time. As Brown writes, “depending on your point of view, the system works or is woefully inadequate.”
The reason this is a topic now is because labor strife looms at the end of the 2011 season. We’ve already heard shots fired in the near-distance by some owners about the need for a salary cap–an issue that was directly responsible for the 1994-’95 strike that canceled the ’94 World Series. Remember the anger, the bitterness? A good portion of Cincinnati was still vehement in its disgust 8-10 years later. Well, labor is going to be a growing topic again this season and if teams like the Reds don’t compete again, we’re going to hear about competitive balance much louder closer to home.
Not the subject you want to think about with a new season starting? Understood. But keep a few quick factoids in mind:
* The amount of revenue-sharing monies handed to each team was not released. Some fans have tried to do the math based on revenues, but MLB has complicated formulas for figuring the distribution. The article outlines some of them. What do we figure the Reds received? Somewhere in the ballpark of $30 million.
* The payroll ceiling to avoid being taxed in 2010 is $170 million. The Reds’ payroll will be in the $70 million-plus range. If the Reds are losing $15 mil, receive $30 mil, what’s happening with the extra loot? 
* Remember: there are two budgets for all teams, one for operations such as team staff, costs, rents and expenses, plus the minor leagues, and one strictly for player payroll. The extra revenue-sharing monies often go to operations, which has the lowest income. The 2009 figures aren’t public until April, but in 2008, the Reds had just $17 million in operating income.
* Some people claim owners are stuffing this money into their pockets. Maybe, maybe not, probably. But the player’s union is always on top of this subject and this past offseason they filed a grievance against the Marlins for being cheap and thick-walleted. They won that grievance and the Marlins were forced into spending on some long-term contracts.
* Teams are not allowed to use revenue-sharing monies to pay down service debt, such as the loans for buying the teams. But in the economy of the last year and a half, this probably isn’t realistic accounting.
And most of all (I’ve needed 749 words to get to this point), THE most important thing for a team’s financial health is to spendWHAT payroll money they have MORE wisely. The Reds have not always done this very well. Yes, the piddling $2 million for Mike Lincoln and Mike Stanton, or the piddling $3 mil for Corey Patterson, or the unnecessary $6.25 mil for Willy Taveras is aggravating and starts to add up on a small-market team. Bad decisions, wasted cash, among many others. A closer being your highest-paid player? Probably not very smart, but Francisco Cordero has delivered results. Saying a Jared Burton or Nick Masset would deliver 73 saves in 83 opportunities in two seasons isn’t a realistic assumption.
Where does this competitive-balance issue leave the Reds?
In 2009, they ranked No. 27 out of 30 in attendance with only 1.747 million, a 21,579 average or a meager 51.3 percent of GABP capacity. They averaged almost 10,000 more on the road. We all know the cry: if they win, you will come. But until that time arrives, maybe in our lifetimes, we’ll continue to hear about salary cap, competitive balance, team finances and how they pertain to the way the Cincinnati Reds do business, which directly impacts the way they may, or may not perform on the field.
–30–

2010 Reds Spring Training: No. 5 Starting Pitchers

By Ashland A-Team

for RedLetterDaze.com

If you want to know reason numero uno why it’s so exciting to be a Reds fan these days, look no farther than the men on the mound each day. With a starting rotation that perfectly balances young and old one through four and a plethora of viable options battling it out for the fifth spot–not to mention a technically sound pitching coach–some baseball experts are predicting the Reds will make a playoff run on the strength of their staff. With that said, and as we continue our spring training “Competition Series,” let’s look at the options for the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

(note: for those who, like me, are a bit statistically challenged, look here for a detailed look at Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP) 

The Youngsters

LH Travis Wood

2009 Stats (AA): 9-3, 1.21 ERA/2.75 FIP in 119 innings

2009 Stats (AAA): 4-2, 3.14 ERA/4.00 FIP in 48 innings 

* The Case For: He may not be getting the most attention, but make no mistake: Travis Wood is the most decorated of the young pitchers in camp this year. His 2009 campaign won him the Reds’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award and the MiLB.com AA Pitcher of the Year awards. After an offseason of working with Cliff Lee, Wood came into camp armed with a new cut fastball. Of all the young Reds talent, he seems the best equipped to not only make the jump to the big leagues, but to stick it out all season.

* The Case Against: Is 48 AAA innings enough? And does he have more talent than Chapman or Leake, or more experience than Maloney? 

LH Matt Maloney

2009 Stats (AAA): 9-9, 3.08 ERA/3.10 FIP in 143 innings

2009 Stats: 2-4, 4.87 ERA/5.41 FIP in 40.2 innings

* The Case For: In September, Reds fans got a glimpse of what Matt Maloney is capable of in the majors–a 2-1 record, 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in three starts. In those 17 innings, Maloney did everything and more than the Reds could ask out of the fifth spot. Couple that effort with the fact that he has nothing left to prove in the minors, and it would appear that he’s in the driver’s seat for this job. 

* The Case Against: 65.6 percent. That’s the percentage of batted balls that were in the air against Maloney in 2009, which simply makes him a terrible fit for Great American Ball Park, where he owns a 5.96 ERA in four starts. Fluke or expectation for such an extreme flyball pitcher in the Reds’ home park?

LH Aroldis Chapman

2008-2009 Stats (Cuban League): 11-4, 4.03 ERA/130 K in 118 innings 

* The Case For: Aside from his electric stuff and phenomenal talent, the best argument for Chapman going north (or, rather, northeast) with the club is this: Cuban defectors Orlando Hernandez and Jose Contreras had, arguably, their best seasons in their debuts as the league adjusted to them. No one has seen Chapman other than grainy Youtube clips and international competitions, and with his improved mechanics, it’s easy to envision a scenario where he blows through the league his first time around on talent and mystery alone. This could certainly bode well for the team’s 2010 playoff hopes. 

*The Case Against: Forget his contract. Forget his age. Before you crown the Reds Central Champs with Chapman leading the way, remember his career high season in innings is 118. That means if he’s with the team all season, chances are solid he’ll best that mark by 50-60 innings, enough to give Tom Verducci a heart attack. 

RH Mike Leake

2009 Stats (ASU): 16-1, 1.71 ERA in 142 innings 

* The Case For: You may have heard of some young fellow named Steven Strasburg. I hear he’s a fairly solid prospect. Well, Leake pitched more innings (142 to 109), in a tougher conference (Pac-10 vs. Mountain West) with a proximate ERA (1.71 to 1.32) last year. It’s officially okay to get excited about Mike Leake, folks. Get real excited. 

* The Case Against: Zero. That’s the number of minor league innings Leake has logged. If the Reds had no other options, that might not be such a huge deal. As it is, though, that number sticks out like a sore thumb. 

The Veterans 

RH Micah Owings

2009 Stats: 7-12, 5.34 ERA/5.67 FIP in 119 innings

* The Case For: Owings enjoyed his best year, in 2008, with Bryan Price as his pitching coach. The talent is undeniably there and if he can
bring that ERA down to around 5.00, with his bat (career .300/.331/.547 with 8 HR in 170 ABs), it may be worth giving him one more shot. 

* The Case Against: Simply put, Owings is built for the bullpen. His ERA was better (3.06 to 5.74), albeit in a small sample (17 innings), and teams thrived on seeing him once and figuring him out. The first time through the order, hitters didn’t fare so well (.227/.330/.330), but the second time? .321/.415/.571. Yikes. 

RH Justin Lehr

2009 Stats (AAA, Philly):5-2, 4.75 ERA/4.95 FIP in 41 innings

2009 Stats (AAA, Cincy):8-1, 2.51 ERA/3.13 FIP 75 innings

2009 Stats: 5-3, 5.37 ERA/6.30 FIP in 65 innings

* The Case For: A feel-good story last summer, King Lehr is the anti-Maloney. While his FIP leads you to believe he was somewhat lucky, in truth, a career 43 percent groundball percentage makes him tailor-made for GABP. He also got stronger late in games last year (opponents hit a paltry .167/.247/.333 against him the third time through the order), and you’ve got an argument that Lehr is the most likely candidate to provide 180 solid innings in 2010. 

* The Case Against: He’s 32 and been a journeyman the past six seasons. The Reds wonder how much of his success in the bigs was lack of batter familiarity. Lehr’s best attributes, leadership and clubhouse presence, were on display as he helped teach Homer Bailey the splitter that helped him thrive in 2009. That presence is invaluable at AAA, where he’d be working alongside a rotation with talent that rivals the big club. 

RH Kip Wells

2009 Stats (Washington/Cincinnati): 2-5, 5.33 ERA/4.84 FIP in 70.2 innings (7 starts) 

* The Case For: While the overall stats are nothing to write home about, Wells’ numbers as a starter for the Reds (2-2, 4.78 ERA in 7 starts) weren’t terrible, and further, they were misleading. Three of his seven outings were quality starts and only once did he pitch the team out of a game. If you like Lehr’s pitching style, consider this: Wells’ career groundball percentage is 49.3, which is, again, perfect for Cincinnati. 

* The Case Against: We have over a decade of evidence that Wells isn’t very good–67-99 career record with an ERA/FIP of 4.71/4.65. 

RH Mike Lincoln

2009 Stats: 1-1, 8.22 ERA/9.27 FIP in 23 innings 

* The Case For: Lincoln is owed $2 million in 2009, and as a starter, perhaps the Reds get some value for him. After all, a quick glance at the bullpen tells you that there’s simply no room for Lincoln there. After all, when Lincoln was used as a middle reliever pitching in one inning or less in 2009, he gave up 19 runs in just 12 innings. So, if there’s a long shot that the team can get value for that sunk money, there’s a reason to at least check. 

* The Case Against: In 2000, Mike Lincoln was primarily a starter. He went 3-10, with and ERA/FIP of 6.84/5.36 in 76 innings. Enough said. 

My Take: While it’s easy to get excited about the Reds long term, the question has to be asked: What about April 2010? What about May? June? In my mind, after looking objectively at each candidate, the best scenario for the Reds is to call up Chapman in May or June and unleash his 100 mph fastball on the league. If that happens, get ready for Hideo Nomo comparisons, who came up unknown for the Dodgers in 1995, won 13 games and helped them to the playoffs.

Until then, though, I’m absolutely shocked to report that the best option to tread water is . . .  Kip Wells. If he pitches to his career numbers, he’ll fit well with the Reds’ infield, give the team a quality start about half the time, and keep the team in the game in the vast majority of his outings. For two months or so, which is all he would be needed if the Reds call Chapman up in June, he won’t kill the team, and should be a better option than Lehr, Maloney or Owings.

Now it’s your turn–what do YOU think?

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