‘Bill James Handbook’ Projects 2010 Reds
The public relations people for the 2010 “Bill James Handbook 2010″ sent out team-specific excerpts Tuesday afternoon to the media in each baseball city. I received the one for the Nationals, which projects Adam Dunn to hit .251-40-103 with a .907 OPS. A buddy forwarded me the excerpt for the Reds and here’s what the book predicts: Key Reds Hitters (by OPS) Player At-bats R HR RBI SB Avg. OPS Joey Votto 502 80 27 90 7 .311 .947 Jay Bruce 574 92 38 95 10 .274 .877 Todd Frazier 507 61 17 69 9 .278 .807 Brandon Phillips 613 85 21 81 22 .269 .756 Drew Stubbs 544 76 11 51 51 .267 .726 Projecting stats for pitchers is very different from projecting offensive stats for hitters. “We used to believe that pitching performance was much, much less predictable than batter performance,” James says. “This is probably still true. . . due to injuries and other factors. Sometimes a pitcher gets hurt, and when that happens our projections for him are knocked into a cocked hat.” Here are three key Cincinnati pitchers for 2010: Key Reds Pitchers (by ERA) Player IP W L K SV ERA Bronson Arroyo 210 11 12 144 0 4.11 Aaron Harang 211 11 12 179 0 4.18 Johnny Cueto 174 9 10 155 0 4.40 What’s obvious here is James expects Todd Frazier to be a big part of the Reds next season. A lot of fans on the Reds blogosphere have debated the point of Frazier being moved to 2b late last season and this winter. I contend the Reds envision Frazier as the next Mark DeRosa and he plays all around the field because of his athleticism and major-league bat. But perhaps we shouldn’t rule out a Brandon Phillips trade, either. Offensively, the eye-popping numbers come from Jay Bruce. The 38 homers may not be a stretch in GABP, but 95 RBI? The .274 batting average seems realistic. But none of that will matter if James’s pitching predictions are anywhere close. Harang and Arroyo finishing under .500? And no forward progress by Cueto? That is bad, bad news for this team. I don’t have the book, which hit the shelves this week, but if anyone has $21.95 handy and grabs a copy, I’m sure everyone would be interested in knowing James’s projections for Scott Rolen, Paul Janish. Ryan Hanigan and Nick Masset, among others.
Hal McCrae For Reds Hitting Coach, Changes in Minors, Catchers Market and Taveras to Be DFAed?
The Cardinals fired former Reds outfielder Hal McCrae as hitting instructor and brought in Mark McGwire. It didn’t take long–or much common sense–to ask if McCrae would replace Brook Jacoby on Reds. It’s an honest question, it’s a perceptive question. McCrae is one of the best hitting minds in the game and he was fired despite the Cards being third in the NL in batting average and fifth in runs per game during his five years in St. Loo. The differences in McCrae and Jacoby are significant–McCrae is a hitting philosophy and plate approach instructor while Jacoby’s skill is honed on mechanics and physiology. With the Reds perennially hurting for approach and on-base percentage, McCrae’s style is a much better fit. But would the front office make such a move? Maybe. Jacoby has been a target of fans for two seasons and it was surprising he was renewed for next year. You had to figure two things: 1.) The Reds didn’t want to eat his contract and 2.) the front office is looking ahead to the possibility of a new manager in 2011. Why bring in a new hitting instructor now? The new manager always wants his own people. Now, your natural reaction is going to be: Why bring in a new pitching instructor? The Reds had targeted Bryan Price very early in the summer and feel there is a greater need to build a pitching plan from the majors to the minors. He’s one of the best in the game today and wouldn’t be available in a year. But if a new manager comes aboard after Baker’s contract expires, he’s going to want big input on the two most important positions, pitching and hitting coaches. Management can sell a prospective new manager on one of the slots being filled, but probably not both. Still, I think the biggest issue replacing Jacoby at this point is money. That’s how tight things are with the Reds these days. Changes in Minors Affiliates: As expected with the Reds’ move of HQ to Arizona, they are moving their short-season team from the Gulf Coast League to the Arizona Summer League. Additionally, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds have worked out a swap with the Pirates for Class A affiliates. The Reds will get Lynchburg, the Pirates’ high-A team in the Carolina League, in exchange for the Reds’ Sarasota franchise in the Florida State League. The Pirates will move that club to nearby Bradenton. Taveras to Be DFAed? Fay is on a daily blogfest of answering reader questions, and today he addresses the Willy Taveras situation. He guesses the Reds will release Taveras and eat his salary–that is, if a trade cannot be worked out this winter. Taveras is owed $4 million in 2010. Good luck. The bigger news from this Q&A is that Taveras was an Uncle Walt recruit, not a Dusty Baker demand. To most, this is appalling but the signs were there all along. When the Rockies non-tendered Taveras last winter, the Reds were on top of him quicker than anyone and put out a two-year offer so fast it boggled minds and oogled Google. Then, word came that the idea of signing Taveras was promoted by Jamie Quirk, former Rockies bench coach who had been hired as a Red scout by by Uncle Walt. The Catchers Market: It’s interesting to read Reds fans opinions for what they perceive as the most pressing need this offseason–left fielder with pop, shortstop with a bat, or a catcher with a combination of offense and defense. As we know, the catching market is forever thin, thus overpriced. That’s why Dog Hernandez could draw some interest as a free agent. There’s no way the Reds pick up his $8.5 million–no. . . way–and they will attempt to sign him much cheaper. Say, $3 million for a year? But what if that fails? MLBTraderumors.com takes a look at catchers who might be available through a trade. Prepare to be underwhelmed, even by the offensive standards of Ryan Hanigan.
Reds Candidates for Rule V Draft
You ask, you receive. Doug Gray at Reds Minor league.com was magnanimous to compile an early list for RLD readers of the most prominent Reds minor-leaguers eligible for the Rule V Draft, which will be held Dec. 10. Teams must decide the players they will place and protect on their 40-man rosters by Nov. 20. The Rule V Draft is (simply) to keep teams from stockpiling young talent in their system when they might have a chance at the majors with another team. The nuts and bolts of eligibility requirements aside, any major-league team that drafts such a player must keep him on their own 25-man roster for an entire year or offer him back to his original club for half the $50,000 drafting price. That’s why you only see a handful of Rule V players picked each year. That could change with Reds prospects this year. Gray put together the following list of prominent eligibles (players in italics are ones Gray expects to draw the most interest if left unprotected): 2004 Signees LHP Philippe Valiquette OF Sean Henry 2005 Signees RHP James Avery C Chris Denove RHP Logan Ondrusek RHP Sam Lecure LHP Travis Wood RHP Zachary Ward 2006 Signee Ben Jukich OF Chris Heisey SS Chris Valaika RHP Dallas Buck 1b Danny Dorn RHP Derrik Lutz RHP Jordan Smith SS Kris Negron LHP Lee Tabor 1b-OF Logan Parker RHP Sean Watson LHP Travis Webb International/Earlier Drafts LHP Alexander Smit RHP Enerio Del Rosario RHP Leonardo Astorga RHP Luis Montano RHP Oscar Castro RHP Ruben Medina Utility Wes Bankston I think there are some easy choices here–Valiquette, Lecure, Wood, Heisey, Valaika, Watson, Ondrusek, perhaps Buck, Smith and Smit. Obviously, the Reds won’t lose all or any, and they can afford some risks of non protecting some players, like all other teams do. So the question goes a step deeper: Who do you clear off the 40-man to make room for whom? –30–
Price to Institute Systemwide Pitching Philosophy
Not mentioned in any of the articles about the Reds hiring Bryan Price as pitching coach is that he takes charge of the entire farm system’s pitching philosophy–instituting a clear and singular program from the big leagues to the lowest rung of the minors. I’m not sure the Reds have done this in the last 30 years but if they have, it has ef’n failed miserably. Price begins work immediately with the Reds’ instructional league and mapping out an offseason program for Reds pitchers. Just what is his philosophy? He’s big on conditioning, working quickly and proper mechanics. In fact, he’s a master at mechanical analysis and instruction. He likes for his pitchers to throw aggressively to their strengths and attack the strike zone. You’ll also see a big emphasis on learning and using the changeup. On the major league side, Price is a take-charge coordinator. The pitching staff is his domain, so the days of Coco Cordero pitching six straight days or Johnny Cueto throwing over 100 pitches after coming off the DL are probably over. Ode to Power, Soto: We told you here Oct. 9 that Price was at the top of the Reds’ wish list and we carried that theme pretty much throughout the process. Jocketty wanted to act fast, we also told you, and the reason was because of so much interest in Price. He turned down two other jobs. But inside the Reds blogosphere, the reaction to his hiring has been about 50 percent negative, 35 percent positive and 15 indifference. Why? Pining for in-house candidates Mario Soto and Ted Power. First, Soto was never getting the job. Never. He could have paid for the job and he still wasn’t going to be hired. Soto has done well in his brief appearances to work with Cueto and Voltron, and some of the kids in Florida, but the overall impression of him on the development side is not great. The word “lazy” keeps popping up as well as some difficulties in attitude. Plus, he just didn’t want the job. His candidacy was a figment of fans’ imagination. Power certainly was a viable candidate who deserved consideration. But the Reds hired the best available pitching coach out there, someone every team with a vacancy was trying to acquire. Power has no big league experience as a coach and in any other Reds situation he would have been given the job because of low salary. But Price has nine-plus years as a major league pitching coach and in seven of those years his staffs have been below league average in ERA. The Reds are rumored to have given him a multiyear (believed to be three years) contract worth more than $1 million. Here’s a case where the Reds didn’t go cheap, they didn’t go obscure. They hired the very best available coach and yet Reds fans aren’t happy. Go figure.
Saving Dusty Baker’s Job Beyond 2010
An interesting undercurrent has developed on the Reds’ blogosphere with all the discussion and speculation about Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan possibly leaving the Cardinals: What must Dusty Baker do to have his contract extended beyond 2010? What if the Reds make the playoffs next season, the last year of Baker’s three-year, $10.5 million contract? What if the Reds leap to the 85- to 90-win territory? What if he genuinely does a great job? Does he still get fired? How could that be justified? Because of his $3.5 million annual salary? Because the minority owners aren’t big fans of Baker? Because someone better and cheaper might be available? It’s a helluva question, considering most fans automatically figure Baker is already on the hot seat. What’s your thoughts on Baker being able to save his job beyond 2010? What will it take?
Bryan Price Is Reds News Pitching Coach
Well, we told you so–sorta. The Reds today hired former Diamondbacks pitching coach Bryan Price as pitching coach. Our pal C. Trent broke the news at Cnati.com and has a good story. Check it out. We told you here about Price being the sleeper candidate on Oct. 9. We also told you this week that he wanted to explore other options while waiting to see if his manager in Arizona, Doug Melvin, got the Astros managerial job. Perhaps this should be the final nail on the Tony LaRussa/Dave Duncan rumors. Anyway, Price is widely regarded as a master of pitching mechanics and instruction, and is very hands-on. He is expected to establish an organizational pitching philosophy. This is a very good hire by the Reds. Now, will Louisville pitching coach Ted Power keep his vocal claim to leave the organization since he didn’t get the big-league job? –30–
Reds Sleeper Pick for Pitching Coach: Bryan Price
Today, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer has an update on the Reds’ pitching coach search. He mentions the standard names–Dave Duncan, Mario Soto, Ted Power–with some quotes from Uncle Walt. The only news value was the Reds hope to make a decision before the World Series and will get to brass tacks when the organization meets in Goodyear next week. Immediately, Fay and others surmise the Reds are waiting for the Cardinals to be eliminated from the postseason before talking with Duncan. But a team insider says Duncan is not the choice, that Uncle Walt knows Duncan’s price tag and interest level, and in the end he won’t leave Tony LaRussa’s side. No, the insider says, there is a sleeper pick, and he is. . . Bryan Price, former pitching coach for the Arizona Diamondbacks who walked out when Bob Melvin was fired last season. Price is a good instructional coach who will work great with the young staff and best of all, he won’t have the price tag of Dave Duncan or Rick Peterson. The reason the Reds are waiting is they will meet with Price and let him spend time with manager Dusty Baker to see how they will work together. To me, if Ted Power were the choice the Reds would have already named him. Price may not get the job or he may turn it down. But for now, he’s the leader on the final turn with Power as the possible fall-back. Addendum: It is believed the price for Duncan will be north of $1 million. The Reds should pay it. To have Duncan on staff to fix Harang, mentor Cueto and Bailey, to develop Travis Wood and a flurry of very promising young pitchers in the system, and take charge of an organization-wide pitching program is worth that cake. And as KevinFtMyers correctly points out on Fay’s blog, having Duncan evaluate potential draft talent has enormous upside, but free agent pitchers are also more likely to give the Reds a closer look (Brandon Webb?). Some will say that’s too much money for a coach. Manager and coaching staff salaries come out of the operations budget, not player payroll. The Reds are still financially strapped and Duncan might not be in the crystal ball for whatever reasons. But if they have a legit shot at the guy–and I believe Uncle Walt already knows the answer–they should make that hire. –30–
The Sticky Affair: What If the Reds Are Guilty of Ball Tampering?
So Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan, John Smoltz and the Cardinals are sore losers and d-bags for claiming the Reds were switching out rubbed-down baseballs for shiny new ones and Bronson Arroyo was using pine tar to get a better grip. That LaRussa, Duncan and Smoltz are whiners and crybabies? Be men, you say? Have some class? Well, what about this: What if they are right? What if the Reds are guilty? Why are so many fans assuming the Reds are innocent? Arroyo’s integrity is near to zero after his confession on the supplements, even though he is positively right about what he said. But all of the National League is already questioning his amazing second-half turnaround and now this matter of the baseballs pokes at the legitimacy of the Reds’ late run in the season, as well. You don’t think there were whispers around the game? You don’t think LaRussa and Duncan were laying in wait about the balls and Arroyo? We all know that the Reds’ roster and lineup changes, plus the pitching of Bailey and Arroyo, have made a huge impact on this team. But before Thursday’s 13-0 loss to the Cardinals, in which we assume the balls were all fine and dandy, the Reds were 12-4 at home since Aug. 28 after being 26-34 beforehand. Their home ERA in this period is 3.00; before, 4.64. They’ve made this incredible improvement with Kip Wells, Justin Lehrand Matt Maloney (minus one bad start against the Dodgers) pitching like top-of-the-rotation guys. You may not like LaRussa but he is smart, very smart. Even if nothing was done wrong by the Reds, he has, like a good defense lawyer, planted the seed of doubt about Arroyo and the team. And if just one more pitcher or team steps forward with similar accusations about the game balls in Cincinnati, it will eliminate the legitimacy of the run the Reds have put together at the end of this season. If the team did anything whatsoever to the baseballs they should be fined $100,000 by MLB. If Arroyo played any part in this he should be fined and suspended by MLB. Any employee who conspired in this should be fired and banned from working in MLB ever again. No one in baseball is going to be looking at LaRussa and the Cardinals as whiners and crybabies. They’re going to be looking at the Reds with suspicious minds, as Elvis would say. This looks bad on the Reds, not the Cardiinals. LaRussa knew what he was doing. –30–
Dumb, Dumber and Dusty
We’ve discussed here many times that in the big picture of a season, lineups and in-game managerial decisions impact only a small portion of games. One of those times absolutely occurred last night, when a complete brain fart by Dusty Baker turned a great Homer Bailey outing into a 4-3 loss to the Marlins. Baker mismanaged the bullpen and overtaxed closer Coco Cordero turned a 2-0 ninth-inning lead into a defeat. It was the fifth straight day Cordero had pitched. All you needed to know that trouble was ensuing was he started overrelying on his slider on his first two batters. In fact, look at this Pitch FX chart of last night’s outing by Cordero. He threw sliders in 12 of his 29 pitches. And pitches is exactly why Cordero should not have even been in the bullpen last night. In taking the mound four prior days, he had thrown 70 pitches. Yes, his fastball was between 94-96 mph, but his changeup and slider were each at 88 mph. Baker had nine guys in the bullpen and he could have/should have given Cordero and Nick Masset the night off. Like Cordero, Masset pitched his fifth straight game. Who knows what Carlos Fisher, Danny Ray Herrera, Ramon Ramirez or maybe even Micah Owings could have done. But for one night Baker could have turned the eighth inning to one of the kids and the ninth to Arthur Lee Rhodes. Instead, he once again got wrapped up getting a stat for a player and it cost the Reds a game. It will also cost him the use of Cordero and Masset tonight and possibly Sunday. Asked what he would do tonight to fill their roles, Baker said, “I’m not sure what we’ll do.” Seriously. Maybe he should have thought of this on, oh, Thursday! Yes, some of you will say all of this would be moot if Wladimir Balentien had not lost that ball in the lights that led to the four unearned runs. That’s true. Some of you will question why Balentien was in left field in lieu of the Crabman. That would be wrong. Both are rated as average to slightly above-average defenders. Some of you will say that for what the Reds pay Cordero, he can pitch when needed. That would be the fantasy-leaguer in you. And some of you will say that for a guy with just 64 innings it’s not asking too much to to tack on one more inning to seal the win. That would be too subjective. But if you said last night wasn’t Cordero’s fault, you would be right. It’s up to the manager, his bench coach and his pitching coach to have the brains God gave them to understand that no pitcher can warmup and throw in a game five straight days. But then, this isn’t the first time brains have been missing in handling of the pitching staff under Baker and Dick Pole.
The Legend of Corky Miller
Journeyman catcher Corky Miller returned to the Reds’ roster on Aug. 25, and you would be remiss to shove aside his impact on the team’s winning streak and dramatically improved pitching performances of the past two weeks. Miller, as diehard fans know, cannot hit the broad side of a barn if the barn was 4 feet in front of him. His career MLB batting average in nine seasons and 154 games is just .175. For the Reds in 2002, he had the infamous 1-for-39 streak (.026). But what has kept Miller, 33, around the game is he’s a masterful handler of pitchers and game management. His career ERA is 3.97 when the MLB average for catchers is 4.38. He’s also thrown out 34 percent of would-be base stealers. Specifically, Miller, who was signed by the Reds as an undrafted free agent in 1998 and acquired from the White Sox for OF Norris Hopper in June and sent to Louisville, has been huge in guiding and mentoring Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and Kip Wells. The Reds are 7-1 in Miller’s starts with a 2.48 ERA. He’s allowed just one passed ball, one wild pitch and one stolen base in 80 innings. Make no mistake, Miller has been firmly in control of the pitchers when he’s behind the plate. You don’t see Bailey dawdling and Cueto shaking off signs. With Arroyo, you see Miller being more animated with demand for pitch locations. He tells pitchers what he wants and you damn-well better do what he says. Miller’s handling of the Reds’ pitching staff–where seven players have less than two years’ MLB experience–is not a knock on Ryan Hanigan or Dog Hernandez. Their styles are different. Hanigan is also a rookie with no track record. Pitchers are going to trust the Corky Millers, Eddie Perezes and Charlie O’Briens far more than a rook. Hanigan’s ERA in 74 games: 4.47; Hernandez’s in 51 games: 4.49. Yeah, it’s still a small sample size for Corky’s long-range impact but the results of the pitchers have been clearly noticeable, even if Corky’s bat has not. He’s currently hitless in his last 19 at-bats and batting .115. But that shouldn’t stop you from being a Corky fan. His minor league bobblehead (photo, above) is still out there, as reviewed by our friends at OMGReds.com when he was acquired from the White Sox.
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