Results tagged ‘ Adam Dunn ’
Dunn or Compensation Picks? Reds’ History Says. . . .
The Hardball Times had an interesting article recently about the history of draft pick compensation for free agent players. It’s a timely topic because the Reds chose to trade free agent-to-be Adam Dunn to the Diamondbacks for P Micah Owings, P Dallas Buck and C Wilkin Castillo. Had the Reds offered arbitration to Dunn this winter and he signed elsewhere, the team would have received two draft picks as compensation in next summer’s amateur player draft. Compensation picks began in 1978 as a way to repay a team that lost a player to free agency whose stats place him in a certain classification of value (Type A, Type B, blah-blah). The compensation system has changed and evolved over the years, but the basics are a team gets a comp pick anywhere from the first to third rounds, depending on the free agent player’s classification. The Reds’ decision on Dunn was simple: They figured it was better to take the players already signed and advanced in pro ball than the risk of two unsigned draft picks requiring bonus money who may never develop. A lot of Reds fans are ready to torch owner Bob Castellini’s produce stand over the trading of Dunn. In some corners, fans believe getting the two comp picks would have been better than what they received in the trade. Maybe, maybe not. When Pete Rose was allowed to sign with the Phillies in 1979, the Reds bypassed LHP Atlee Hammaker and catcher Bob Geren (who would come to the Reds in 1992) to take catcher Dan Lamar with the 20th overall pick. Who?Exactly. Pete Rose for Dan Lamar. Now that’s a trivia quiz for winning a bar bet. A year after Rose departed, Joe Morgan returned to the Astros as a free agent. Wagner passed on future MLB pitchers Tim Burke and Joe Hesketh for RHP Jim Pettibone with the 43rd selection. Ironically, Hesketh was selected by the Expos for losing former Reds great Tony Perez via free agency to the Red Sox. The Reds under Howsam and Daddy Wags famously, stubbornly and foolishly refused to participate in free agency the first five years of the system, allowing the gradual breakdown of the Big Red Machine. When they finally decided to join the 20th century of baseball, their first free agent signing was . . . backup 1b Larry Biittner, 35, of the Cubs. The Cubs’ compensation pick was LHP Vance Lovelace, who much later managed 4 2/3 innings in the majors with the Angels and Mariners. So there, stupid Cubs fans. Biittner was actually a pretty reliable pinch-hitter and fill-in over 1981-’82. For Wagner, 1982 was a year of infamy as the Reds sank to 95 losses and Daddy Wags’ likeness was famously hung in effigy. Among his moves were getting rid of George Foster, Ray Knight and Ken Griffey for five sacks of potatoes and Cesar Cedeno. OF Dave Collins was allowed to sign with the Yankees as a free agent and Daddy Wags’ comp pick was LHP Scott Jones, bypassing SS Dale Sveum, who had a decent career, namely with the Brewers. Wagner, along with manager John McNamara, was fired a few weeks after the draft. A year later, Cook refused to make a big offseason move for a quality starter like Rick Reuschel but signed the Braves’ Rick Mahler instead. The Giants went to the World Series after acquiring Reuschel from the Pirates at the trade deadline; the Reds lost the 57th pick to the Braves, who took a pitcher named Brian Boltz while passing on Tim Salmon, John Olerud, Phil Nevin and Denny Naegle. Think the Reds would have drafted any of those guys? The one time a team did the Reds a favor by signing one of their players was 1992, when the Phillies coughed up the No. 51 pick for 2b Mariano Duncan. Did GM Bob Quinn draft Todd Helton or Jason Giambi, each taken within the next seven picks? Nooooooo. He went for SS Rick Magdelano. Who? Right. You might also recognize 1992 as the year the Reds bypassed Derek Jeter for Chad Mottola in the regular phase of the draft. Enter Jim Bowden. You think having three catchers the past couple of years is insanity? In 1995, Bowden gave up the 24th pick to sign journeyman catcher Damon Berryhill from the Red Sox while also having Benito Santiago and Eddie Taubensee on the roster. Of course, the Red Sox botched the pick by selecting Corey Jenkins over Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Beltran and Sean Casey, among others. How would Milton Bradley or Jimmy Rollins look in the Reds’ lineup today? Never mind. In 1996, Bowden was handed the 33rd and 38th picks for losing Ron Gant to the Cardinals. Bowden picked pitchers Matt McClendon and Buddy Carlyle, Carlyle pitched only 10 games in the majors from 2000-2007 but has performed quite well at times this year . . . for the Braves. Did the Reds take Xavier Nady with their second comp pick for losing Guzman? Of course not. They selected catcher Dane Sardinha and gave him a major league contract in lieu of bonus money, which they didn’t have. The thing is, drafting amateur talent in baseball is such an inexact science and making compensation picks lends itself to equal amounts of subjectivity. The Reds have a bad history on comp picks, for sure, but what if they had a deep history of playing the free-agent field like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Dodgers and White Sox? Imagine some of the players those teams could have drafted if . . . ya know . . . they weren’t already buying established players. As for the Reds, the recent draft history of former GMs Dan O”Brien and Wayne Krivsky has replenished the farm system. A few of those hands have come courtesy of comp picks. We’ll know shortly how it’s all worked out with RHP Kyle Lotzkar (for Scott Schoeneweis) and infielder Todd Frazier (for Rich Aurilia). We’ll also know about the Red Sox selecting LHP Nick Hagadone (for the Reds signing SS Alex Gonzalez) or the Giants with 2b Charlie Culberson (for Mike Stanton) and P Jake Odorizzi to the Brewers (for Coco Cordero). As for Dunn and the compensation picks: The Reds had already decided they were not going to re-sign Dunn and they were fearful he would accept arbitration and drive up his cost to over $15 million for one season. Based on the way the 2008 roster has performed, it was probably a smart move by Uncle Walt to stockpile players more advanced in the system than gambling on draft picks.
Through the years and Lord knows how many general managers, the only time the Reds ever made a rewarding comp pick was by Bob Howsam in 1983, when he turned the free agent loss of pitcher Bob Shirley into catcher Joe Oliver with the 41st overall pick. Other than Oliver, the team’s history of compensation picks gets really ugly. Is it possible Dick Wagner was a worse GM than we already thought?
The Murray Cook years of 1988-’89 provided a lot of drama as the Reds were so close to the playoffs but never made the big deal for a badly needed pitcher. Cook foolishly re-signed CF Pinhead Milner from the Giants in ’88, forfeiting the No. 15 overall pick as compensation. P Charles Nagy, 3b Ed Sprague or OF Brian Jordan would have been fairly useful over the next 10 years.
In 2000, the Reds drafted RHP Dustin Moseley at No. 34 as compensation for
losing P Juan Guzman, who did a good job down the stretch in 1999. Guzman signed with the Devil Rays as a free agent and almost immediately blew out his arm. No one is laughing. Moseley’s career was derailed by his own arm problems; now he’s a reliever for the Angels.
Observations on Reds Spring Training, Feb. 20, 2008
* An omen? John Fay writes about Adam Dunn in the Cincinnati Enquirer and there was this ominous little passage:
Dunn said he feels great. He had arthroscopic surgery Sept. 26. He had been playing with bulky knee for over a year.
“It’s good,” he said. “I haven’t done a lot of agility stuff. But it’s better than it’s been in a long time. It should make it easier to play.”
Okay, you had knee surgery in September. It’s February. And you’ve not done a lot of agility? WTF have you been doing all winter? Even with the most severe knee injuries, physical therapists want you moving the leg almost immediately. They’re not waiting 5 months to start agility.
A lot of you have raised questions over the years about Doc Hollywood and the Reds’ training staff. I blame the front office. Doc is fairly well regarded, but he’s only the slicer and dicer. It’s up to the teams to enforce the rehab. It’s also up to the player to do the work.
* On Hal McCoy’s blog at the Dayton Daily News, Hal says Krivsky remains attentive toward adding a pitcher and said, “If there is one out there we can get, if the price is right …”
Among the unsigned free agent pitchers are Josh Fogg, Kyle Lohse and Jeff Weaver.
“For this time of year, that’s a lot of talent still out there,” said Krivsky. “I’ve never seen it quite like this.”
Dunno about you, but this certainly sounds like the Reds are going to add someone from the free agent list.
* Must be something insidious in the Sarasota water. Now Dusty, ala Narron, is talking about carrying three catchers. If this is, in fact, reality, an already crunched roster crunches out who for Paul Bako?
* Predictably, John Erardi wrote the Enquirer piece about Bob Howsam’s passing. Predictably, he inserted himself into the story as “a reporter” within the first couple of graphs. But he talked with Sparky, whose quotes were great. But overall the coverage from the DDN and Enquirer was lazy, reactive, disappointing, unprepared. Howsam was almost 90. Smart, intuitive sports editors have these packages for aging legends prepared long in advance, updating every once a while as time goes along. Howsam deserved better. I would have liked to read a Lonnie Wheeler perspective today.
* In the Reds’ logjam of lefties (mostly relievers), Fay points out that Scott Sauerbeck has caught Baker’s eye. Could Sauerbeck win a slot in the rotation with Affeldt pushed to the pen? Seems like the best fit for each pitcher’s abilities/qualities. Sauerbeck’s career numbers are better as a starter; Affeldt’s best success has come as a reliever.
Sauerbeck making the team would not bode well for Coutlangus, who I’ve said a few times around the boards doesn’t stick. He’s not that good.
–30–
Reds Spring Camp Sidebar: Questions in Sarasota, Part 1
First in a Series
When I asked readers and bloggers last week to submit their five top “Reds Spring Camp Storylines” of 2008, the inevitable happened: they sent questions. Lots of questions. Eighty-two questions, in fact.
As Eric Bell, aka “Champ Summers,” blogged at C. Trent’s personal site, “looking at many of the interesting storylines, they seem to be questions. Going into the spring the Reds have a number of things that are just up in the air, lots of unknowns. To me that is the interesting stuff in the spring.”
So, after outlining the five in-depth storylines we’ll be covering here over the next couple of weeks, I leafed through the responses again and came up with more than a dozen legitimate spring questions that we–the fans–would like to see answered in Sarasota.
Starting here, we’ll address a few of those questions in (fairly) short-answer format as a sidebar feature, “Questions in Sarasota,” between each of the five-part mainbar series. These questions and answers are not in any order of importance. Nor are they paralleling the mainbar series.
They’re just relevant or interesting questions to help you enjoy watching the Redlegs prepare for the 2008 season:
Trade Winds
Q: Are the Reds willing to pull the trigger on a trade in spring training if a glaring need is seen, or will they wait until the trading deadline and hope for something there? –Larry Hampton
A: The Reds are in a waiting period for deals on several levels. They need to get a feel on their competition for the center field job, see how the kids pitch the first couple of weeks of spring games, evaluate their platoon at first base and address any health issues. Then, they can react.
If the kid pitchers are getting battered around, don’t be surprised at a push for Oakland’s Joe Blanton or another mid-rotation starter. Even so, there’s more free agents unsigned at this time than most baseball people can recall. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a couple of low-risk veteran moves, like Kenny Lofton for a leadoff and center field platoon, or perhaps a veteran pitcher (Kyle Lohse?) signed on a low-risk, one-year contract.
Most of all, the Reds need some games to gauge whether they are builders or contenders in 2008. If the Reds feel they are one or two parts from making a playoff run, expect activity. If the kids perform, they’ll probably stand still for a while.
While Krivsky’s stealthiness on personnel moves incites the curious fan base, his secrecy is usually grounded in layered logic. But remember, he has yet to concede the present, regardless of standings deficit, by playing for the future. Baseball Prospectus picks the Reds third in the NL Central. That sounds right. I think the Reds are buyers this spring.
Dissin’ the Donkey?
Q: Will Adam Dunn get a long-term contract or will there be speculation of his pending trade all . . . season . . . long once again? –Eric Davis (no, not 44!)
A: Dunn makes $13.5 million this year, the final of his contract, and he can’t be traded until June 15. The owner and player seem to want each other long term, but at what cost for a guy who routinely hits 40 homers, drives in 100, walks 100 times and strikes out enough to wind-power the Delmarva peninsula?
With Brandon Phillips extended and seen as the face of the Reds’ future, what does that mean for Dunn? Some believe he could draw $18 million a year on the open market, but there’s serious question to what a DH-type with poor defensive skills and a reluctance to play first base can objectively bring on the deflated landscape. If nothing else, Dunn’s options for such a payday are probably limited to American League teams. Perhaps his home-state Texas Rangers would pay that kind of cake.
Dunn’s future in Cincinnati will likely be decided by the June 15 deadline and dictated by the Reds’ place in the standings, Dunn’s performance, the readiness of Jay Bruce, and so forth. You can reason the end of Griffey’s contract after this season means the Reds are in financial shape to make a sizable offer to Dunn.
Question is, where does Dunn fit into the Reds’ short-term plans for long-term contending? Do the Reds even know themselves?
You can also reason that at age 28 Dunn is at the midpoint of his career. He is what he is–pros and cons, nothing more or less. Or is he?
Dunn had a very good August and September (.275 average, 13 HRs, 39 RBI), when he finally started driving the ball the opposite way, cutting down on his strikeouts (only 39 the final two months), putting the ball in play, forcing the defense from the extreme shift to the right side and making pitchers re-think throwing him away and down. It was as if there was an all-new Donkey dissin’ his long-time critics while tipping his cap to conventional wisdom.
What will the Reds do? There’s no middle ground among the fan base on Dunn; they love him or hate him. But how would the Reds replace his offense? On the other hand, does Dunn’s defense and spotty performance with runners in scoring position make him expendable for younger, cheaper and more balance from other batting slots?
These are all questions without answers–for now.
Valenzuela–Sergio, Not Fernando
Q: Will the unheralded and unknown Rule V pick Sergio Valenzuela from Atlanta cost someone else a spot on the 25-man roster like he already did on the 40-man? –Ron Adamczyk
A: It was a shock when the Reds released Jorge Cantu, an even bigger shock they replaced him via the Rule V Draft with a 23-year-old Class A pitcher who gives up as many hits as innings pitched and as many walks as strikeouts.
As you likely know, a player drafted in the Rule V must remain on the 25-man roster for a season after he’s selected or be offered back to his original team for a pocket of cash and three buckets of catfish (farm raised, please). Does Valenzuela stick? Not likely, evidenced by the number of pitchers the Reds keep strolling into camp. But in fairness to Krivsky, he plucked Oakland’s Jared Burton from AA-ball last year and made a trade that brought the troubled outcast Josh Hamilton. Seems Krivsky’s eye for hidden talent has worked out pretty well, eh?
But Valenzuela? How does this move make sense on the 25-man? He’s never mentioned in the equation of young pitchers trying to make the team. Nor does there seem to be room for him to get many spring innings. Could the Reds already have a deal in place with the Braves to keep the kid and drop him to the minors, building even more pitching depth?
Probably. Keep an eye on the Reds’ roster squeeze and keep an additional eye on the Braves for potential moves and injuries that might deliver them a major league-ready body from the Reds’ glut of training camp bodies. Perhaps Coffey or Coutlangus? What about Stanton going home to finish his career?
Now we have your attention. . . .
The Ugly Lid
Q: Are the Reds again wearing that terrible-looking spring training cap from last year–the one with the giant red wishbone “C” clashing with the red cap and sporting the stupid black ear trim? –Mr. Redlegs
A: Yes and no. The big red “C” is gone in favor of the traditional white “C” but the mud-flap ear trim is back. This lid is more tolerable although it’s not distinct enough to be immediately recognized as the team’s “spring training cap.”
Teams like the Reds don’t get the attention, creativity or wealth of merchandise MLB Properties affords the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs and Cardinals, all of whom sell much more garb than the Reds. The last real national bump the Reds had on their merchandise was when Griffey arrived in 2000.
Basically, we get what MLB Properties offers, with no
questions asked.
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
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