Results tagged ‘ baseball ’
5 Things to Watch Down the Stretch of Spring Training
At the halfway point of spring training games, the Reds are in an odd position of having a fairly set roster with several things still in flux. This has been caused by some shaky performances, defections to the WBC, and sudden competitions we didn’t expect. Dusty Baker is no different from most managers–they will usually excuse a poor spring and give the nod to a proven veteran. But the Reds find themselves with a few growing decisions that might exceed the normal ST slump or surprise showing by a youngster.
Here are 5 Things to Watch the final two-plus weeks of spring training:
1.) The Race for the No. 5 Starter
It’s over, it’s been over and it was never really a competition. RH Micah Owings was already the more experienced pitcher, the big arm, and the key to the Adam Dunn deal with Arizona. He’s also put up the Reds’ best spring pitching numbers against far better lineups than his next closest competitor, RH Homer Bailey. There’s a reason the Reds shut down Owings from pitching with a strained shoulder after acquiring him last summer: he could be the best No. 5 starter in MLB.
2.) The Real Race–Long Reliever
Attention turns almost immediately to the one available slot in the bullpen, long reliever. A wide opinion is to keep Bailey on the Reds and let him mature out of the bullpen. I don’t share that belief; maybe you do. But he’s going to face far better batters the rest of the way than he has thus far. We’ll see how Bailey reacts. Anyway, RH Nick Masset did a solid job in the role after coming from the White Sox in the Junior Griffey deal, but his career inconsistency has carried over to spring training. Plus, he’s out of options. Thing is, if not Bailey or Masset, who? Could LH Pedro Viola slip into the race, especially if LH Billy Bray isn’t fully ready from shoulder and hamstring issues? How dumb is it now that RH Ramon Ramirez, 26, nine years in pro ball, left for the WBC?
3.) Logjam for Bench Roles
It appears Chris Dickerson and Jonny Gomes will platoon in left field, leaving a tough competition for two, maybe three, bench roles. With Jerry Hairston Jr. available for outfield or middle infield duty, does that make Norris Hopper and Jeff Keppinger (see No. 4) redundant? The competition for left-handed bat off the bench has come down too 1b Daryl Ward, OF Laynce Nix and OF Jacque Jones. Nix is younger and offers a little more versatility. The struggling Jones could be a roster cut by the end of the week even though ideally he fits the role of versatile, veteran lefty off the bench better than anyone. Meanwhile, the versatility of 2b-C-OF Wilkin Castillo can’t be overlooked. But he doesn’t hit for power and he hasn’t hit anything this spring. To this point, Ward is winning a slot almost by default and he’s the least versatile.
4.) The Growing Keppinger Question
Baker insists utility infielder Jeff Keppinger’s roster spot isn’t in jeopardy but you really have to wonder. Keppinger has not hit since breaking his knee cap last May. With SS Alex Gonzalez looking good so far in his return from a broken knee, is Keppinger expendable? Couldn’t Hairston serve as insurance and backup to Gonzalez, 2b Brandon Phillips and 3b Edwin Encarnacion? It’s a growing question unless Keppinger’s bat heats up.
5.) Who Gets Cut From the 40-Man Roster?
There’s already very little fat with 12 possibilities being under age 26. Hopper is the most likely at this point and I’ll say 2b Danny Richar, who is 26, position limited and would likely clear waivers. Perhaps you disagree and see Masset or one of the young but aging minors relievers (Manuel?) as candidates. Either way, it appears the Reds will have to clear two off the 40-man to open the season.
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Questions in Sarasota: Part 4
Even though spring training is almost complete and there’s still several question marks to be answered on the field, many Reds fans have turned their attention to the season ahead. A look at some of the recent queries:
Don’t Look, But . . .
Q: Has anyone looked at the Reds’ schedule in April and May? It’s really tough. With so many young pitchers can they survive this schedule? — Dale Lavritch
A: This is a great question because the Reds get screwed on the schedule–some way, somehow–almost every year. And Dale is right: It’s a brutal April-May schedule against non-division teams. The season opens with five games against playoff teams Arizona and Philadelphia, then a nine-game divisional roadtrip to Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Chicago. To compound, the Reds have yet another nine-game trip, to San Fran, St. Louis and Atlanta, that slops into May, followed by one home series against the Cubs and then a trip to the Mets. There’s also the first interleague series, against Cleveland, in May, and nine games against the Dodgers and Padres over the first two months. This is just ridiculous.
Oh, the Yankees play Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Kansas City and White Sox 14 times in April.
For all the promise of the young pitching staff and hope for the season, the Reds’ early-season schedule is a killer and could bury this team before Memorial Day. If they can get to June in some semblance of .500 things could get very interesting over the last two-thirds of the season. But if the Reds are 10-12 games under and the young pitchers are struggling. . . . Katie, bar the door.
Readiness
Q: How “ready” for the big leagues are these Class AAA pitchers?–Mary Gerstner
A: As the season approaches and Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez appear to have rotation slots won, this is the absolute biggest question of the Reds’ season. The Reds came to camp extremely thin in the rotation with a third-place finish in the woeful NL Central being hopeful. Now, they open the season with any playoff hopes riding on the coattails of Voltron and Cueto.
Spring training numbers don’t mean so much for pitchers; it’s about the stuff they have and the way big league hitters react and respond. In that regard, Voltron and Cueto have been the talk of all camps. On one side of the fence Reds fans are discussing the number of wins Voltron, Cueto and veteran Josh Fogg can bring to the back of the rotation. But on the other side, almost no one is talking about the number of losses this team will suffer if Voltron and Cueto are not ready for the big leagues.
Hither Bailey
Q: I see no purpose of sending Bailey to AAA. Why not let him work out of the bullpen with the Reds and gain the experience like they used to do with young pitchers in the old days? — Steve Brookes
A: We’ve heard more than a few times that Bailey has nothing to prove in the minors. Oh, yes he does. There, he can prove that he has command of all his pitches (which he doesn’t), that he can get past the fifth inning (which he can’t) and that he can be efficient in pitch counts (which he’s terrible).
Bailey is only 21 and what he’s shown last year and in spring training this year is he makes very few adjustments of how to work hitters from start to start. The best way to pitch, and pitch efficiently, is to attack, attack, attack the strike zone. Voltron and Cueto are making the team because of the way they get ahead in counts, putting the batter on the defensive for their “out” pitches. Bailey piddles and nibbles and shakes off signs, and seems to get lost with his mechanics from one batter to the next. Twice this spring he’s walked the opposing pitcher.
The bullpen, where he would get spot duty and come into games with runners on base, is not the way for him to learn. Especially since he’s awful at holding runners with that long stride. His workload would be erratic with off days and the use of a No. 5 starter, which is why you don’t see more young pitchers brought up in the bullpen these days. It was easier to find consistent work for these kids when everyone used a four-man rotation. Besides, the team behind you gets really, really pissed when a pitcher continually goes out there and struggles with command. You put up some runs, go out on defense and the pitcher needs 27 pitches to get through his half of an inning. Aargh!
No, Bailey needs to go to Louisville and work on the multitude of issues he has to be ready to beat Major League batters. His career is not over. He’s still fine tuning.
Baker’s Dozen
Q: If the Reds would win 12 more games with new manager Dusty Baker than they did last year they would have finished one game behind the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Can Dusty make up this ground? — Brian Rahe
A: Several e-mails after my “Baker’s Impact” article in Storyline No. 4 asked a similar question: How many more wins does Baker bring? Brian’s estimate of 12 would make the Reds 84-78. Improvement? Yes, but enough to win the division this year? That seems a pinch low. I’ll say at least 87 wins are needed to snag the berth and don’t believe the Reds will win that many unless this pitching staff (i.e., Cueto and Volquez combine for 27 wins) completely surprises.
Catchy Situation
Q: Once healthy, will David Ross improve his offensive stats? Is it more important to be a good defensive catcher and mediocre batter? If Ross cannot improve, will Javier Valentin fill the bill or do the Reds look elsewhere? –Larry Hampton
A: Avid reader Larry sums up the catching situation quickly and thoroughly, and you get the feeling the Reds’ braintrust would like to have a better all-around catcher. The problem is Baker hasn’t really seen Ross, who is battling back spasms, and the qualities that make him so valuable to the pitching staff. If Ross hits .240 he does enough defensively to hold the starting job. But there’s no doubt this team is not going far into the season with either Bako or Valentin starting. They’ll be forced into making a deal if that occurs.
In-Between at In-Between
Q: So do you drop Juan Castro from the roster after Alex Gonzalez is ready? –Dennis Kuhn
A: Odd as it seems, shortstop is one of the more interesting issues of the last positional spot on the 25-man roster. The chances were not great for Castro to make the team as a utility infielder out of spring training until Gonzo suffered his knee fracture. Then, Baker started making not-so-veiled references to his preferred defensive qualities of the shortstop. Obviously, Jeff Keppinger doesn’t fit all these measures; Castro does. Now, the Reds have about 18 players who are capable of playing backup in the infield. And a lot hinges on whether they keep Bako as a backup catcher (and third on the roster) when Ross is healthy. Barring an injury to one of the other starting infielders I don’t see how Castro sticks when Gonzo comes off the DL.
The Junior Equation
Q: Will Ken Griffey Jr. return to the Reds in 2009? –David Boddy
A: That’s the $4 million question. The Reds hold a $16.5 million option on Griffey for next season and there’s almost no chance he will be offered that contract. But what if he thrives under Baker and has a monster season? What if he puts up “only” 30 homers and 100 RBI? Do you let him walk? Here’s what could happen:
1.) Junior walks. There’s a wide feeling he will bookend his career by finishing in Seattle for a season or two, especially if the Mariners, as expected, are contenders.
2.) Junior has a solid first half, is traded midseason to a contender and hot prospect Jay Bruce comes up from Louisville to replace him in right field for the next 10-12 years.
3.) Bruce suffers an injury, setback or doesn’t hav
e a very good season at Louisville and the Reds can’t afford to hand him a position going into next year. They need Griffey as insurance.
4.) The Reds have to pay Griffey $4 million if they decline the option. They can always re-sign him for one year at a lower salary, if he’s willing, that includes the option money.
Here’s the catch-all: for the Reds to be contenders this year, they probably need a big year from Griffey. So if Junior has the big year, what do the Reds do? They can’t trade him midseason if he’s a key element of a playoff push. Then, perhaps, the Reds are backed into a corner on Junior’s contract for next year.
This is an interesting storyline to watch for the first half of the season, especially on the development of Bruce.
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
Reds Spring Training Storyline No. 4: Baker’s Impact
Entering spring training, the most hotly debated storyline of the Reds’ 2008 season wasn’t about young players or filling positional needs, but the impact and influence of new manager Dusty Baker. If you took a poll, roughly 75 percent of Reds fans believe he is a lousy hire–a killer of young arms whose penchant for veteran players and homespun ponderings are the sole reason the Cubs have not won a World Series since B.C. The fury coming out of Chicago toward Baker almost two years later is still amazing–if not for its intensity, certainly for its convenience. Baker is seemingly the scapegoat for whatever ills the Cubs six decades and running.
Is he the perfect manager? Of course not. But what he is to the Reds at this point and time is an established, winning manager coming to an organization that has seven consecutive losing seasons and only one playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 1990. Through the years since, Reds fans have witnessed the maltreatment of Tony Perez, the backstabbing of Davey Johnson, the tyranny of Ray Knight, the fuddy-duddiness of Jack McKeon, the witan of Bob Boone, the overwhelming of Dave Miley, the breakdown of Jerry Narron and the bypassing of Pete Mackanin.
Suddenly, ownership steps forward and hires a manager with 1,162 career victories who has been to the World Series once and playoffs four times. Thrice Baker has been manager of the year. But perhaps most of all, Baker is one of the most respected people by players in all of baseball. Yet somehow–especially considering the list of managers since Lou Piniella ran off to Seattle in 1993–the hiring of no Reds skipper has been so controversial since John McNamara replaced Sparky Anderson in 1979.
So this storyline isn’t about Dusty Baker’s what-nots, as blogger Mark Pinti points out, but what he potentially brings to a winning-starved franchise. Baker will likely drive us nuts with his proclivities. There’s also the looming worry about the way he extends his starting pitchers past 110 pitches.
But that’s not the debate here. The issue is: after 12 years of hiring on the cheap, the Reds have a legitimate big-name manager with a record of great success. How does Baker impact a franchise roiling in second-division finishes? Has anything occurred during spring training to sway you one way or the other on the Baker debate? Can he change the culture within the Reds’ clubhouse, asks fan Speedy Bear Powers? And most of all, wonders blogger Ty Steele, what’s an acceptable (and realistic) number of wins and progression under Baker over the next three seasons?
These questions, and many more, await the start of the new season. But for now, what will Baker’s impact be on the immediate future of the Reds?
Observations of Spring Training: Vol. 3
Wide Open Bullpen Race–With two weeks of spring games remaining, the competition for the bullpen spots is quickly intensifying. We all know Francisco Cordero and David Weathers have their roles secured, but the other four or five places? Rarely have we seen so many options for Reds bullpen vacancies. Many fans think 2007 second-half sensation Jared Burton is a lock–but not so fast. He’s looking eerily similar to the guy Jerry Narron was afraid to touch early last season. Since Burton was a Rule V pick this time a year ago and has minor-league options, he owns no entitlement under a new manager without a solid spring.
With the starting rotation quickly developing under Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Josh Fogg, Matt Belisle and Jeremy Affeldt find themselves pushed into the bullpen logjam. Who will survive? It’s easier to reveal who won’t: Jon Coutlangus (can’t retire lefties), Brad Salmon (wildness), Gary Majewski (command), Josh Roenicke (inexperience), Scott Sauerbeck (leaves best stuff in warm-ups) and, likely, recent Rule V waiver claim Jose Capellan, who probably doesn’t have time to make the squad after coming over from the Giants mid-spring. Perhaps the Reds will work out a deal to keep him in the minors.
You figure Mike Stanton stays because he’s due $3 mil even if he’s released (plus he’s having a good spring); you figure Kent Mercker has to be added to the 40-man roster, so perhaps he starts on the DL and goes to extended spring training or Louisville; and you figure Belisle sticks because he would be the only long reliever and a logical replacement in case of a problem in the rotation.
That leaves Burton, Billy Bray, Todd Coffey and Marcus McBeth for two spots. A healthy Bray makes the club. Given that hope, it’s worth watching Burton, Coffey and McBeth more closely this week. And remember: Coffey makes $925,000 this year, whether he’s with the Reds or Louisville.
Domo Arigato, Mr. Votto?–For all those wanting to hand rookie Joey Votto the first base job based on his September performance, this is why you don’t let go of a reliable, veteran fallback such as Scott Hatteberg, especially at a very friendly $1.85 million salary. Votto is having an awful spring. He’s batting .139 with just one RBI and one extra-base hit. He’s barely getting the ball out of the infield. Votto is traditionally a slow starter. But what he’s done in the minors and one month in the majors doesn’t provide him any benefit of the doubt just yet. Problem is, out of all the Reds’ young, unproven players, Votto is the only one truly with nothing to prove at Class AAA. But that’s where he’ll likely open the season until his bat heats up.
The Extra-Extra Man–Meanwhile, non-roster invitee Andy Phillips is having a good spring, providing a solid right-handed bat (with pop) at first, second and third bases, plus the outfield. With Jeff Keppinger indefinitely replacing the injured Alex Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips, who was a surprise release by the Yankees last winter and has three-plus years’ big-league experience, is playing his way onto the team as a platoon with Hatteberg instead of keeping a struggling Votto. At least, for now. Phillips’s natural ability to play first base gives him an edge over other non-roster invitees Andy Green and Jolbert Cabrera, who has 11 RBI.
You Do Understand . . . Corey Patterson is the Opening Day starter in center field, right?
See Ya, Sergio; Hello Guevara?–Rule V pick Sergio Valenzuela was one of the first cuts from the overbloated camp as the Reds returned him to the Braves for $25,000. The Braves promptly sold him to the Mexican League. This was easily the worst of GM Wayne Krivsky’s minor-league talent gambles and cost the team petty cash and a roster spot for either Jorge Cantu or Chattanooga reliever Jose Guevara, who went to the Padres via the Marlins in the Rule V draft a spot ahead of the Reds picking Valenzuela. The good news is Guevara is not getting much opportunity to pitch for the Padres because of an injury and could end up back in the Reds’ system.
Who could the Reds have selected other than Valenzuela? Brian Barton, a leadoff-type right-handed center fielder who is having a dynamite Cardinals camp, would have been an intriguing fit for the Reds. At 25 and coming off a shoulder injury in 2007 at AAA for the Indians, Barton has progressed through four levels in three years. He also has a career .417 on-base percentage in the minors. He was chosen four spots down from Valenzuela.
Hidden in Translation–A rep from the Hall of Fame was in Sarasota last week and asked Junior Griffey which cap, Seattle or Cincinnati, he wanted on his HOF plaque. “It won’t be red [Cincinnati],” Junior said. “It will be blue [Seattle].” That’s no huge surprise, but Cincinnatians are so sensitive about this sort of perceived slant against the city that it’s surprising there wasn’t even mild stirring on the typically bombastic Cincy radio talk shows.
Get Your Red-Hot Cuetos!–No sooner had Johnny Cueto lit up eyeballs and radar guns the past week did his choice rookie cards, the 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft issues, light up collectors. Cueto’s standard issue card (No. 145) reached about $5, but the money and market is on his refractor subsets, where the signed and numbered Cueto cards were leaping in interest and value throughout the week. The biggest? Cueto’s signed “red” refractor issue graded BGS 9.5 and numbered No. 3 out of just five cards made sold for $590 on eBay.
And, oh, for those seeking a Cueto autograph, there’s no telling what you might get–a hurried, sloshy “Johnny” script or printing his full name in all-caps block letters. Each of those Cueto sigs is a far cry from stardom-confident Tom Seaver practicing his autograph while at Southern Cal by wrapping onion-skinned typing paper around an orange.
The Redlegs Book Club: 2008 Releases
It’s not exactly a banner year for new Redlegs reading this season because, as you likely know, anytime the Red Sox or Yankees win the World Series apparently 99.2 percent of all new sports book titles are federally mandated to be about those teams.
There are just three new Reds titles, one of them being young adult, and your best bet might be the re-release bio of someone close to the heart of all Reds fans. Here’s what’s coming:
“Game of My Life: Cincinnati Reds,” (Sports Publishing) by Kyle Nagel of the Dayton Daily News is a review of more modern Reds history through the eyes of 20 team members reflecting on the one game that defined their career. The prerequisite people are here–Rose, Bench, Sparky, Robinson, etc.–telling their first-person accounts. This 256-page title is part of a “game of my life” series across most pro teams and big college teams, so you’re getting a pre-fab format by a writer whose newspaper work doesn’t reflect narrative ability. Will there be material we haven’t already seen in a collection of Reds bios through the years? We’ll see. Available March 15.
“The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Cincinnati Reds” by Cincinnatian Mike Shannon (Triumph Books) and forewarded by Dusty Baker (why?) is the most interesting Reds title because a.) it’s not just a glossy history but also tackles the failures and controversial topics; and b.) Triumph doesn’t hand out advances without a solid manuscript. Shannon, founder and editor of Spitball baseball literary magazine, certainly knows Reds history and goes inside the locker room of the 1975 world champions, examines the volatility of Rob Dibble, tackles Dave Concepcion’s Hall of Fame snub, and more. Good concept, lousy title. Available March 25.
“The Cincinnati Reds” by Mark Stewart (Norwood House) is a young adult/kids title of just 48 pages that covers team history, key players and great moments quickly and effectively with lots of good images, a timeline and quotes. Part of an MLB team history series for ages 9-12, this title is available Aug. 25, in time for the new school year.
And while not a new title, the re-release this winter of “Joe: Rounding Third and Heading for Home” (Orange Frazier) in softcover is worth a sentimental journey for Reds fans since Nuxhall’s passing last offseason. Written by former Cincinnati Post columnist and local TV sportscaster Greg Hoard, this bio was originally released in 2004 and features the great stories and reflections we’d expect from Joe. Lots of great pictures, too. The hardback version has quickly become a collector’s item ($90) in great part because of Orange Frazier’s typically small print runs (normally 5,000). The softcover is available now and the publisher has a very limited supply of the hardcover on its website for $29.95.
Observations of Spring Training: Vol. 2
E-6?–The loss of starting shortstop Alex Gonzalez to a fracture of the knee means there’s an open competition for the position. Most people assume Jeff Keppinger will step into the slot based on his terrific second-half performance of last year. But that is not apparently true (yet) as manager Dusty Baker has not given Keppinger an endorsement defensively. Instead, Baker has heaped praise upon Paul Janish’s major league-ready glovework, Adam Rosales’ athleticism, Jerry Gil’s versatility and Juan Castro’s recovery from elbow surgery. If Neifi Perez suddenly appears in camp, oh brother. . . .
Point is, it appears Dusty is saying now is a good time to look closer at the minors kids and see if a starting shortstop for 2010 and beyond is among them. Or, more likely, as Dusty is wont to do, he’s using a little psychological rhetoric to ***-kick everyone to step up and grab the job. Obviously, Keppinger is not going to be handed the position, nor should he be. He’s not earned it yet. Three months is not a career like Gonzalez’s. But the minors kids have an opportunity to earn the job and Keppinger has to play himself out of the job–if that makes much sense. Tie goes to Keppinger.
BREAKING NEWS!–This just in! Scott Hatteberg plays, trade speculation begins! MLBTradeRumors.com says the Yankees, Royals, Giants and A’s are possible matches. If the Giants want to part with Dan Ortmeier or the Royals part with Joey Gathright . . . waitaminute, I may have 108 red stitches in my head but this ain’t fantasy baseball. Sheeez.
Majik Man–After Gary Wayne Majewski’s disastrous first outing of the spring (1/3 IP, 6 hits, 6 runs), almost all of Redlegs Nation was screaming bloody hell for him to be released. Oddly, no one asked for an exorcism. But the lunatic thinking was all over the map–this is the Majik Man’s last chance to save his career; he has the name of a serial killer; and the dumbest (but prevailing) mindset: GM Wayne Krivsky won’t cut the Majik Man because Krivsky will look bad for making “The Trade” with the Nationals two years ago. Here’s a thought: The performances and contracts ($9.9 million combined) of Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns in Washington have already made it look like a good trade for the Reds, regardless of the oft-injured Majewski and Bill Bray (combined for just under $1 mil).
Majewski is not getting released so save your rant. He’d be claimed on waivers in about 8 minutes. There’s this little shortage of pitching going around. It’s also the first week of spring games. He’s only 28, he’s got minor league options, he’s cheap, he’s been successful in the big leagues, and when healthy, his fastball has a lot pop, movement and sink–perfect for GABP. His problem has been strike-zone command, which is very common for pitchers coming off shoulder problems. He can always go back to Louisville and continue to find himself. But for now, it’s a good thing the Majik Man had a stellar inning his second outing. His ERA dropped from 162.0 to 40.50.
Pole Vaults–Anyone else notice that pitching coach Dick Pole, who seemed to have almost no impact or visibility last year under Jerry Narron and Pete Mackanin, seems to have received a shot of B-12 (the illegal stuff) with Dusty’s hiring? Remember, many thought the Reds should have brought in a younger pitching coach for the young arms when a new manager was hired. But Pole, who was Baker’s pitching coach with the Giants and bench coach with the Cubs, has now vaulted (har) to the forefront with the kid pitchers, being very proactive in workouts, mid-inning mound sessions and a meeting of the minds with Baker on a game plan for the pitching staff. Maybe it’s an illusion, or elusion, but me thinks with Narron being a former catcher, perhaps he and Pole had differences on handling the pitching staff. Just guessing. . . .
Ross For Less–David Ross, who is coming off a terrible offensive year (.203-17-39) but is one of the best defensive and play-calling catchers in the bigs, is missing time with a balky back. Obviously you want more offense from your catcher, so this could be a pivotal spring, a pivotal year for him and the position. Ross and backup Javier Valentin are free agents after this season and there’s no heir apparent ready in the system. Ross is making $2.52 mil this year and there’s a $3.5 mil option for 2009 with a $375,000 buyout. Needless to ponder, Ross needs to get on the field, have a better offensive season or he’ll be playing for a lot less in 2009.
Quip Master–The Reds’ media is having a grand ol’ time in their daily meetings with Baker. Mackanin brought great humor and broke the tension long fostered by know-it-all Bob Boone, puppet Dave Miley and tightly wound Narron. Yes, some of you think Dusty is illiterate. Yes, some of you think he’s a fool. Yes, some of you think he hates young players, OBP, runners on the base path, modern music and wine in a box. But you have to go back to Trader Jack McKeon in 2000 for a better Reds manager for quotes, quips, honesty and keeping everyone informed, including the readers/fans. Dusty is very refreshing, even if you take the interpretation of his round-about musings way, way too literal.
Today, Dusty has this laugher, talking about injured pitchers having a better chance nowadays of reviving their careers: “With so many teams in need of quality arms, guys are able to come back more than before. They’re giving their body a natural chance to recover, in addition to rehab. In the old days, there were some guys I knew who were in better shape and were better players in the beer league after they got hurt. They just couldn’t get a chance [to make a comeback]. But they got all the beer.”
The Eye Seez. . . . Ron’s kid, reliever Josh Roenicke making his second appearance of the spring against the Hated Yankees Thursday. Josh blew away the Pirates Saturday with 2 strikeouts in an inning. He had teammates buzzing about his fastball in a batting practice session last week, and he gave up an unearned run with a strikeout in the intrasquad game. John Fay of the Enquirer has mentioned twice in 10 days that Roenicke is the surprise of camp and believes he’ll make the team. And there’s this Dusty quote:
“I hunted with his dad this winter. We talked about [Josh], his background and where he came from. I’ve been following him since he was in high school, as a football player.”
Reds Spring Camp Sidebar: Questions in Sarasota, Part 2
Second in a Series
Even though spring training games are underway and many of the Reds’ question marks will be answered on the field, there are still lots of interesting twists, takes and turns about this team that we–the faithful–are pondering each day of camp. So we’ll address a few more of those questions in (fairly) short-answer format as a sidebar feature, “Questions in Sarasota,” between each installment of the five-part series “Reds Top 5 Storylines of Spring Training.” These questions and answers are not in any order of importance. Nor are they paralleling the mainbar series. They’re just interesting questions from fans to help all of Redlegs Nation enjoy watching the Nine prepare for the 2008 season:
The First Base Quandary
Q: Where does Scott Hatteberg fit in? –Charles Michels
Q2: Does Andy Phillips make the team? –Doug Smith, aka “The Bartender”
A: First base is increasingly a very interesting position to watch. While Votto has the inside nod on the starting job, what happens with the backup slot could affect several players and positions. Phillips appears to be roster-squeezed, especially since Jeff Keppinger is likely to get ABs as the right-handed first baseman and backup catcher Javier Valentin can slip into duty at first, as well. Plus, there’s quasi-incumbent Hatteberg’s situation.
Why the logjam? The only thing that figures is the Reds are waiting to see if Votto performs close to his September production this spring while also seeing if there’s a market for Hatteberg and/or Votto (in a bigger deal) as the season nears. Something must give. If the kid pitchers perform how do you justify demoting one of them in favor of a roster spot for three or four 1bs and/or three catchers? Because of Valentin’s role as a backup catcher and great pinch-hitter, the first-base backup will probably determine if Bako stays as a third catcher.
But Doc, It Only Hurts When I Throw
Q: What do you make of Bronson Arroyo’s health? I thought he was injured last year. –Jason Burwinkel, aka “AD05″
A: Lots of eyebrows raised about Arroyo’s health after throwing 129 pitches against San Diego May 16. He followed with a six-start binge of 0-4 with two no decisions, 10.78 ERA and 50 hits allowed in just 29.2 innings. Twelve of his 18 starts in the first half were more than 100 pitches, including a stretch from June to early July of five in a row with no less than 105 pitches.
Arroyo never confessed to injury and certainly he continued taking the mound. But later in the season he admitted to a tired arm. By Aug. 1, he was barely getting to the sixth inning . . . all of which raises an interesting point: For all the crap many fans give Dusty Baker about the way he rode Kerry Wood and Mark Prior in Chicago, especially during a pennant-winning season, why wasn’t there similar outcry when Jerry Narron and Pete Mackanin were mule-driving Aaron Harang and Arroyo the past two years?
Because, when you want to win games and you have a thin staff and even thinner bullpen, you go with your best guys as long as you can keep ‘em hitched to a bridle.
Temptation of Another (Retread)
Q: Can Reds management resist the temptation of signing Kenny Lofton to play in the outfield? –Eric Rodgers
A: Probably not. But it’s been oddly quiet on the Lofton front the past week to 10 days. The idea of a versatile lefty backup outfielder to slot opposite righty Norris Hopper makes a lot of sense. I still believe Jay Bruce spends at least 60 days in Louisville to start the season.
Sub-Prime Lesson: Don’t Spend Money You Don’t Have
Q: With the contracts of Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn and several others coming off the boards after this year, it seems the Reds could have $40 million freed for 2009. Will the Reds be big free-agent shoppers in 2009? –Brian Butler
A: Not so fast. Yes, with expiring contracts and expected buyouts the Reds are looking at just under $44 million in savings, but they have about $18 million in escalating salaries in long-term contracts, around $6 mil in potential buyouts, not to mention any arbitration cases and escalations on non-arb contracts. The real amount freed looks to be around $16 million to $18 million. Now, if the Reds decline Ross’s option and dump Freel’s salary, that’s an additional $6 million! You can see all the Reds’ contracts at Cot’s Baseball Clearinghouse.
But the Damn Ball Only Costs $12.99!
Q: You have mentioned the Reds’ “Great Eight” stars of the Big Red Machine will appear at a card and memorabilia show in Baltimore (March 8-9). I was thinking of getting a ball signed by all of them through mail order but the cost is $372. That seems high. What does a ball with the entire team of players and coaches cost? –Terry Hart
A: It depends on the condition of the ball and quality of signatures, but a ’75 team-signed official National League ball (Chub Feeney stamp) with all the key names–the “Great Eight,” the remaining reserves and pitchers, plus manager Sparky Anderson and batting coach Ted Kluszewski–is typically around $1,200; the ’76 ball is about $1,500. You can shop eBay and memorabilia dealers and sometimes find lesser-conditioned balls for $1,000 or a little less.
I’m a believer of vintage sports memorabilia being part of your investment portfolio. The Big Red Machine balls are a good example. I paid less than $650 each at Leland’s auctions in the ’90s and now some auction prices are tipping $2,000 for the ’76 ball. How do you argue with a 307 percent return?
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
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The Redlegs Book Club: ‘Beyond the Sixth Game’
It’s that time of year when the new baseball books hit the shelves. But unless you’re a fan of the Red Sox, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees or Red Sox, you may not find much that excites you. But Reds fans do have some very interesting older and historical titles to read for getting you into the spirit of a new season.
To start off, I’m recommending a tremendous story based on the 1975 World Series, “Beyond the Sixth Game,” by Peter Gammons of ESPN, published in 1985. The heart of the book takes the context of how the rapidly struggling pastime was changed forever by one game–Game 6 of the ’75 Series. You’ll get great behind-the-scenes detail about this classic Series and, with the new era of free agency looming in a few months, how Game 6 becomes the demarcation line of today’s game of big business.
This title is easy to find on eBay, Amazon and most used bookstores. Here’s a link to Amazon to buy the book.
Enjoy and let me know what you think of “Beyond the Sixth Game.”
Signing Josh Fogg: Things That Make You Go Hmmm
The Reds signed Colorado’s middling Josh Fogg to be one of their starting pitchers, raising the ire and eyebrows of way too many fans. Much of Redlegs Nation is upset the team didn’t add another frontline starter to make a run at the division this year. The discontent also spreads to the obvious squeezing of the kid pitchers from the rotation competitions and what appears to be another stepping-stone year, as if the last seven seasons weren’t already.
The Fogg signing could be good, bad or indifferent. Who knows? But on the acrylic surface he gives the Reds a piece of badly needed security in case Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Matt Maloney prove in spring training they need more minors time. Fogg has at least 26 starts each of the past six seasons, and at a paltry $1 million, his salary is $1.7 million below the Major League average.
With nary a game pitch thrown in Sarasota, smart and (hopefully) contending teams do not enter the season with two slots of the rotation dependent upon unproven rookies, especially since only Bailey (45) and Volquez (80) have major league innings. Maloney and Cueto have a combined 39 innings at AAA. Therein rests the perceptual problem with the Fogg deal–Reds fans want to keep all their young, raw talent and toss them into the rotation while also sipping Methode Champenois in October.
While legitimate arguments against Fogg center on baserunners allowed, career ERA, help from the great Colorado defense and moving to the GABP bandbox, what’s necessary is a much deeper look at his stats and the importance of No. 5 starters as a whole. One blogger repeatedly points out that Fogg is below major-league average in so many aspects. True, but his standard is for his peer group, No. 5 starters, and in that role he is one of the best.
Fogg was 10-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 29 starts last year for the National League champion Rockies, who would not have reached the World Series without him. Fogg had 12 quality starts for the year and in his final seven starts pitched against his opponents’ No. 1 or No. 2 starter each game, going 3-0 with four no decisions and 3.87 ERA. In that stretch Fogg beat Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks, Chris Young of the Padres and Derek Lowe of the Dodgers while receiving a draw against Barry Zito of the Giants, Dontrelle Willis of the Marlins, Brad Penny of the Dodgers and Jake Peavy of the Padres. Note that Zito, Webb and Peavy are Cy Young Award winners. In fact, 13 of Fogg’s starts were against his opponents’ No. 1 or No. 2 starters, against whom Fogg was 4-3 with six no-decisions for the season.
The role of the No. 5 starter is hugely important, especially for contenders. Days off, injuries, rainouts and rotation changes often mean the No. 5 matches up against an opponent’s best pitchers. In 2007, No. 5 starters in MLB averaged a fat 6.09 ERA with just a .354 winning percentage, revealing the expected talent discrepancy of a No. 1 vs. No. 5 starter. The Reds’ No. 5 starters were 7-13 with a ******** 7.35 ERA.
Before you go yapping about statistical splits and stadium differences, Fogg has always been a pitch-to-contact thrower who gives up a lot of hits and walks. He definitely keeps everyone antsy by nibbling and picking around the plate and piling up about 91 pitches per outing. But he has a nasty out-pitch slider and a decent sinking fastball. He tends to get a lot of groundballs early in the game, tire from so many pitches by the middle innings and leave pitches up and over the plate. He’s averaged 5 2/3 innings per start the past three years. As one scouting report reads, “he is what he is,” nothing more or less.
As for stadium comparison, humidor or no, Colorado is the biggest park in baseball and permits about a one-run greater handicap than any other park. The outfield is a wide-open cow pasture of 347 feet in left, 350 in right, 415 to center and a vast 390 in left-center. While the Rockies play really good defense, there’s no defense for singles that easily turn to doubles and doubles flipping to triples because of that massive field. The Coors Field outfield dimensions are impossible to defend. Don’t look at Fogg’s home splits. You’ll go blind. But 16 of his starts were on the road, where he posted a 4.15 ERA and allowed just a .269 batting average. Really, not bad.
(Sidebar! Sidebar! Rosecrans has Fogg slotted at No. 3, Fay says No. 4 and McCoy isn’t sure he’ll make the rotation or roster, but as C. Trent writes, “all anyone has at this point is a guess.” Shouldn’t a lefty break up the righties and push Fogg to the back, where he would give the Reds a better chance to win against opponents’ No. 1 or No. 2 starters? More about the rotation in the “5 Top Storylines” Series.)
So the real issue here is not the greatness of Josh Fogg, per se, but stopgapping the back of their rotation with a proven veteran. The Reds also signed Fogg without parting with any of the prized youngsters or spending very much money. Fogg can be traded or released if the kids prove they are ready. He has no worth to them as a reliever. But most of all, Fogg doesn’t force the team to carry one of the kid pitchers on the 25-man roster if they are not ready and, thusly, starting their arbitration clocks, which is no small consideration for young arms.
Before screaming about the young pitchers getting their chops by trial and failure in the majors, realize that a young player is gauged by major-league readiness, not minor-league stats. Until they see how the young players perform in at least 3-4 weeks of spring games, the Reds’ management needs a piece of Linus’s security blanket. Fogg is there if necessary and easily dispensable if not. It’s a low-risk move that isn’t as dumb in precaution as it appears in practicality.
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Observations on Reds Spring Training, Feb. 20, 2008
* An omen? John Fay writes about Adam Dunn in the Cincinnati Enquirer and there was this ominous little passage:
Dunn said he feels great. He had arthroscopic surgery Sept. 26. He had been playing with bulky knee for over a year.
“It’s good,” he said. “I haven’t done a lot of agility stuff. But it’s better than it’s been in a long time. It should make it easier to play.”
Okay, you had knee surgery in September. It’s February. And you’ve not done a lot of agility? WTF have you been doing all winter? Even with the most severe knee injuries, physical therapists want you moving the leg almost immediately. They’re not waiting 5 months to start agility.
A lot of you have raised questions over the years about Doc Hollywood and the Reds’ training staff. I blame the front office. Doc is fairly well regarded, but he’s only the slicer and dicer. It’s up to the teams to enforce the rehab. It’s also up to the player to do the work.
* On Hal McCoy’s blog at the Dayton Daily News, Hal says Krivsky remains attentive toward adding a pitcher and said, “If there is one out there we can get, if the price is right …”
Among the unsigned free agent pitchers are Josh Fogg, Kyle Lohse and Jeff Weaver.
“For this time of year, that’s a lot of talent still out there,” said Krivsky. “I’ve never seen it quite like this.”
Dunno about you, but this certainly sounds like the Reds are going to add someone from the free agent list.
* Must be something insidious in the Sarasota water. Now Dusty, ala Narron, is talking about carrying three catchers. If this is, in fact, reality, an already crunched roster crunches out who for Paul Bako?
* Predictably, John Erardi wrote the Enquirer piece about Bob Howsam’s passing. Predictably, he inserted himself into the story as “a reporter” within the first couple of graphs. But he talked with Sparky, whose quotes were great. But overall the coverage from the DDN and Enquirer was lazy, reactive, disappointing, unprepared. Howsam was almost 90. Smart, intuitive sports editors have these packages for aging legends prepared long in advance, updating every once a while as time goes along. Howsam deserved better. I would have liked to read a Lonnie Wheeler perspective today.
* In the Reds’ logjam of lefties (mostly relievers), Fay points out that Scott Sauerbeck has caught Baker’s eye. Could Sauerbeck win a slot in the rotation with Affeldt pushed to the pen? Seems like the best fit for each pitcher’s abilities/qualities. Sauerbeck’s career numbers are better as a starter; Affeldt’s best success has come as a reliever.
Sauerbeck making the team would not bode well for Coutlangus, who I’ve said a few times around the boards doesn’t stick. He’s not that good.
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