Results tagged ‘ Bronson Arroyo ’
‘Bill James Handbook’ Projects 2010 Reds
The public relations people for the 2010 “Bill James Handbook 2010″ sent out team-specific excerpts Tuesday afternoon to the media in each baseball city. I received the one for the Nationals, which projects Adam Dunn to hit .251-40-103 with a .907 OPS. A buddy forwarded me the excerpt for the Reds and here’s what the book predicts: Key Reds Hitters (by OPS) Player At-bats R HR RBI SB Avg. OPS Joey Votto 502 80 27 90 7 .311 .947 Jay Bruce 574 92 38 95 10 .274 .877 Todd Frazier 507 61 17 69 9 .278 .807 Brandon Phillips 613 85 21 81 22 .269 .756 Drew Stubbs 544 76 11 51 51 .267 .726 Projecting stats for pitchers is very different from projecting offensive stats for hitters. “We used to believe that pitching performance was much, much less predictable than batter performance,” James says. “This is probably still true. . . due to injuries and other factors. Sometimes a pitcher gets hurt, and when that happens our projections for him are knocked into a cocked hat.” Here are three key Cincinnati pitchers for 2010: Key Reds Pitchers (by ERA) Player IP W L K SV ERA Bronson Arroyo 210 11 12 144 0 4.11 Aaron Harang 211 11 12 179 0 4.18 Johnny Cueto 174 9 10 155 0 4.40 What’s obvious here is James expects Todd Frazier to be a big part of the Reds next season. A lot of fans on the Reds blogosphere have debated the point of Frazier being moved to 2b late last season and this winter. I contend the Reds envision Frazier as the next Mark DeRosa and he plays all around the field because of his athleticism and major-league bat. But perhaps we shouldn’t rule out a Brandon Phillips trade, either. Offensively, the eye-popping numbers come from Jay Bruce. The 38 homers may not be a stretch in GABP, but 95 RBI? The .274 batting average seems realistic. But none of that will matter if James’s pitching predictions are anywhere close. Harang and Arroyo finishing under .500? And no forward progress by Cueto? That is bad, bad news for this team. I don’t have the book, which hit the shelves this week, but if anyone has $21.95 handy and grabs a copy, I’m sure everyone would be interested in knowing James’s projections for Scott Rolen, Paul Janish. Ryan Hanigan and Nick Masset, among others.
For Arroyo, Rotation Change Looms
Deep down we’ve known all along Bronson Arroyo really wasn’t a No. 2 starting pitcher. He fooled us (and the NL) for a while with his smoke-and-mirrors act, and he’s actually pitched pretty well for most of his three seasons with the Reds. The guy takes the ball and guts out quality starts. But you always had a creeping feeling the true side of Arroyo’s repertoire would surface–the side that lends itself to monthlong beatings we’re seeing more and more this season.
Off to shaky start and taxing the bullpen like the IRS, Arroyo’s performance tonight against the Astros is huge. He has started off with four consecutive underwhelming outings, failing to survive the sixth inning and allowing 35 baserunners in just 21.1 innings. He’s thrown a ******** 413 pitches. He’s also 0-2 with a 5.48 ERA.
If Arroyo has another bad start tonight there is justifiable reason for rotation changes. For one, the Reds finally have some pitching depth in their system so they are not obligated to keep Arroyo at No. 2 any longer. For another, Johnny Cueto and Voltron are simply better pitchers. No. 3, Arroyo deeper in the rotation gives the Reds a better chance at wins.
The No. 2 slot in the rotation is extremely important because off-days, injuries and rotation changes pushes the No. 2 into an opponent’s top starter enough for the No. 2 to be considered starter No. 1-A. But the No. 2 also gets pushed against an opponent’s Nos. 3-4 starters about 12 games a season–enough to create a pitching advantage that can decide playoff berths.
What we’re seeing of Arroyo this year is more unsettling than usual. For most of 2006 and much of 2007, he was victim of awful run support. The Reds lost his first five starts last year by giving him only 11 runs. And there’s little question that Jerry Narron permitting a mindless 129-pitch outing against San Diego May 16 sent Arroyo on a tailspin in which he allowed at least six runs in five of his following six starts.
When Arroyo righted himself and was pitching well around the trade deadline, the suggestion here was the Reds should deal him. Trade high! Arroyo was signed long term, he would be better suited at the back of a rotation for a playoff team, and the Reds could get a couple of key parts in return. Atlanta was desperate and had catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia as a centerpiece the Reds could have used. The vastness of Turner Field was perfect for Arroyo.
Many Reds fans huffed. You don’t trade starting pitching. Arroyo is an asset. The argument here was: this was not a playoff team and wasn’t going to be a playoff team without considerably bigger roster changes. Arroyo could actually accelerate the process toward a winning franchise again.
Nevermind.
Now, with the Reds’ farm system and the trade for Voltron last winter beginning to pay dividends, Arroyo is gradually pitching himself deeper into the rotation. Great, you might say, that gives the Reds more depth at the back. But there’s one really, really big issue many people are forgetting:
Arroyo is about to step into a monster contract extension. He’s in the last of a three-year deal he signed with the Red Sox, making $3.95 million this year. But with the two-year extension he received last year, he’s due $9.5 mil in 2009 and $11 mil for 2010. There’s an $11 mil option for 2011 with a $2 mil buyout.
That’s enormous money for a guy pitching more and more like the player the Pirates released and the Red Sox had relegated to swing duties. That’s No. 1 and No. 2 starter money, and as we all see now, with a fastball barely touching 90 and breaking balls magnetically attached to the heart of the plate, Arroyo is no longer a top-of-the-rotation pitcher for the Reds.
Reds Spring Camp Sidebar: Questions in Sarasota, Part 2
Second in a Series
Even though spring training games are underway and many of the Reds’ question marks will be answered on the field, there are still lots of interesting twists, takes and turns about this team that we–the faithful–are pondering each day of camp. So we’ll address a few more of those questions in (fairly) short-answer format as a sidebar feature, “Questions in Sarasota,” between each installment of the five-part series “Reds Top 5 Storylines of Spring Training.” These questions and answers are not in any order of importance. Nor are they paralleling the mainbar series. They’re just interesting questions from fans to help all of Redlegs Nation enjoy watching the Nine prepare for the 2008 season:
The First Base Quandary
Q: Where does Scott Hatteberg fit in? –Charles Michels
Q2: Does Andy Phillips make the team? –Doug Smith, aka “The Bartender”
A: First base is increasingly a very interesting position to watch. While Votto has the inside nod on the starting job, what happens with the backup slot could affect several players and positions. Phillips appears to be roster-squeezed, especially since Jeff Keppinger is likely to get ABs as the right-handed first baseman and backup catcher Javier Valentin can slip into duty at first, as well. Plus, there’s quasi-incumbent Hatteberg’s situation.
Why the logjam? The only thing that figures is the Reds are waiting to see if Votto performs close to his September production this spring while also seeing if there’s a market for Hatteberg and/or Votto (in a bigger deal) as the season nears. Something must give. If the kid pitchers perform how do you justify demoting one of them in favor of a roster spot for three or four 1bs and/or three catchers? Because of Valentin’s role as a backup catcher and great pinch-hitter, the first-base backup will probably determine if Bako stays as a third catcher.
But Doc, It Only Hurts When I Throw
Q: What do you make of Bronson Arroyo’s health? I thought he was injured last year. –Jason Burwinkel, aka “AD05″
A: Lots of eyebrows raised about Arroyo’s health after throwing 129 pitches against San Diego May 16. He followed with a six-start binge of 0-4 with two no decisions, 10.78 ERA and 50 hits allowed in just 29.2 innings. Twelve of his 18 starts in the first half were more than 100 pitches, including a stretch from June to early July of five in a row with no less than 105 pitches.
Arroyo never confessed to injury and certainly he continued taking the mound. But later in the season he admitted to a tired arm. By Aug. 1, he was barely getting to the sixth inning . . . all of which raises an interesting point: For all the crap many fans give Dusty Baker about the way he rode Kerry Wood and Mark Prior in Chicago, especially during a pennant-winning season, why wasn’t there similar outcry when Jerry Narron and Pete Mackanin were mule-driving Aaron Harang and Arroyo the past two years?
Because, when you want to win games and you have a thin staff and even thinner bullpen, you go with your best guys as long as you can keep ‘em hitched to a bridle.
Temptation of Another (Retread)
Q: Can Reds management resist the temptation of signing Kenny Lofton to play in the outfield? –Eric Rodgers
A: Probably not. But it’s been oddly quiet on the Lofton front the past week to 10 days. The idea of a versatile lefty backup outfielder to slot opposite righty Norris Hopper makes a lot of sense. I still believe Jay Bruce spends at least 60 days in Louisville to start the season.
Sub-Prime Lesson: Don’t Spend Money You Don’t Have
Q: With the contracts of Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn and several others coming off the boards after this year, it seems the Reds could have $40 million freed for 2009. Will the Reds be big free-agent shoppers in 2009? –Brian Butler
A: Not so fast. Yes, with expiring contracts and expected buyouts the Reds are looking at just under $44 million in savings, but they have about $18 million in escalating salaries in long-term contracts, around $6 mil in potential buyouts, not to mention any arbitration cases and escalations on non-arb contracts. The real amount freed looks to be around $16 million to $18 million. Now, if the Reds decline Ross’s option and dump Freel’s salary, that’s an additional $6 million! You can see all the Reds’ contracts at Cot’s Baseball Clearinghouse.
But the Damn Ball Only Costs $12.99!
Q: You have mentioned the Reds’ “Great Eight” stars of the Big Red Machine will appear at a card and memorabilia show in Baltimore (March 8-9). I was thinking of getting a ball signed by all of them through mail order but the cost is $372. That seems high. What does a ball with the entire team of players and coaches cost? –Terry Hart
A: It depends on the condition of the ball and quality of signatures, but a ’75 team-signed official National League ball (Chub Feeney stamp) with all the key names–the “Great Eight,” the remaining reserves and pitchers, plus manager Sparky Anderson and batting coach Ted Kluszewski–is typically around $1,200; the ’76 ball is about $1,500. You can shop eBay and memorabilia dealers and sometimes find lesser-conditioned balls for $1,000 or a little less.
I’m a believer of vintage sports memorabilia being part of your investment portfolio. The Big Red Machine balls are a good example. I paid less than $650 each at Leland’s auctions in the ’90s and now some auction prices are tipping $2,000 for the ’76 ball. How do you argue with a 307 percent return?
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
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