Results tagged ‘ Joey Votto ’
‘Bill James Handbook’ Projects 2010 Reds
The public relations people for the 2010 “Bill James Handbook 2010″ sent out team-specific excerpts Tuesday afternoon to the media in each baseball city. I received the one for the Nationals, which projects Adam Dunn to hit .251-40-103 with a .907 OPS. A buddy forwarded me the excerpt for the Reds and here’s what the book predicts: Key Reds Hitters (by OPS) Player At-bats R HR RBI SB Avg. OPS Joey Votto 502 80 27 90 7 .311 .947 Jay Bruce 574 92 38 95 10 .274 .877 Todd Frazier 507 61 17 69 9 .278 .807 Brandon Phillips 613 85 21 81 22 .269 .756 Drew Stubbs 544 76 11 51 51 .267 .726 Projecting stats for pitchers is very different from projecting offensive stats for hitters. “We used to believe that pitching performance was much, much less predictable than batter performance,” James says. “This is probably still true. . . due to injuries and other factors. Sometimes a pitcher gets hurt, and when that happens our projections for him are knocked into a cocked hat.” Here are three key Cincinnati pitchers for 2010: Key Reds Pitchers (by ERA) Player IP W L K SV ERA Bronson Arroyo 210 11 12 144 0 4.11 Aaron Harang 211 11 12 179 0 4.18 Johnny Cueto 174 9 10 155 0 4.40 What’s obvious here is James expects Todd Frazier to be a big part of the Reds next season. A lot of fans on the Reds blogosphere have debated the point of Frazier being moved to 2b late last season and this winter. I contend the Reds envision Frazier as the next Mark DeRosa and he plays all around the field because of his athleticism and major-league bat. But perhaps we shouldn’t rule out a Brandon Phillips trade, either. Offensively, the eye-popping numbers come from Jay Bruce. The 38 homers may not be a stretch in GABP, but 95 RBI? The .274 batting average seems realistic. But none of that will matter if James’s pitching predictions are anywhere close. Harang and Arroyo finishing under .500? And no forward progress by Cueto? That is bad, bad news for this team. I don’t have the book, which hit the shelves this week, but if anyone has $21.95 handy and grabs a copy, I’m sure everyone would be interested in knowing James’s projections for Scott Rolen, Paul Janish. Ryan Hanigan and Nick Masset, among others.
Midseason Report: Looking Back, Looking Forward, Looking at the ‘Now’
Red Letter Daze Updates on Twitter! Follow along at twitter.com/MisterRedlegs Well, it’s not exactly what I had in mind. It’s not exactly what I spent all night/morning working on. It’s not exactly what you expected, either, I’m sure. Yeah, me neither. Through most of last week I began compiling all sorts of information and statistics to throw at you for this Midseason Redlegs Report. In the end I tossed most of it in the trash. That’s because after their (predicted?) 2-5 roadtrip through Philly and New York, the Reds’ season is officially on the brink and, no, I’m not giving one @#$&*! dime to John Feinstein. We can look at the NL Central standings and see the Reds are 42-45 but only five games behind the Cardinals. Yay! We can also look at the NL Central standings and see the Reds are in fifth place and closer to the cellar, only 4.5 games ahead of the Pirates. Boo! This “Stuck in the Middle With You” groundswell, as Stealers Wheel sang back in the early ’70s, leaves us decidedly split on what direction the Reds should take in the second half: buy players for a playoff run, or sell off parts to build for 2010? The interesting thing about this position is there seems to be hope–hope for immediate improvement after eight straight losing seasons and hope for sustained success in the near future. Personally, I never believed this roster was playoff material, or even .500 material, coming out of spring training. But many of you are believers, owning that hope (and prayer) that five games can be overcome. It’s not impossible. I want to believe you for believing. I really do. Deep down so do lots of skeptical, cynical Reds fans. That’s where you are asked to answer: “What should Uncle Walt and the Reds do for the second half?” Buy parts that help for a run now, or sell off assets to build toward next year and beyond? Or, maybe a little of both. Even though the Reds backslid into the All-Star Game break and did so in pretty ugly fashion, the position of the team is perhaps its best in 10 years. We see the young pitching developing and the farm system sprouting, and only the farsighted can scream for “winning now,” regardless of the cost. In the past couple of weeks, more of the fan base has come around to the notion this roster needs more than one or two established new players to make a playoff run. We’re not talking World Series run or NLCS run. We’re talking about just getting past “Go” and collecting the $200. So as the first half closed and second half beckons, we’ll take a look at some of the things looking back, forward and in the now. NEWS! NEWS! NEWS! Bruce Out 6-8 Weeks: The good news of the day is Reds RF Jay Bruce will not require surgery on his broken right wrist suffered Saturday night in New York. He will be out 6-8 weeks, which raises a couple of interesting points: 1.) Can the Reds place him on the 60-day DL so they don’t have to make a 40-man roster removal if they intend to call up Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey from Class AAA Louisville? With healing, physical therapy and baseball rehab, eight weeks seems about right, especially since the minors season will be concluded by the 60-day activation date of Sept. 12; 2.) What to do about right field now? Call up one of the youngsters or make a deal? Uncle Walt was already looking for an outfield bat–like, since last winter–but now there is a sense of roster urgency; 3.) Or is there a sense of urgency? SS Alex Gonzalez is due back from the DL in two weeks and Jerry Hairston could then become the extra outfielder, perhaps the starter in left field. It appears Chris Dickerson will take Bruce’s place in right field–at least, for now; 4.) Is the Reds’ season officially over without Bruce? He was hitting just .207/.283/.471 but he has 18 taters with 41 RBI and he was at least a “threat” to do something with the bat. I mean, if they were offensively challenged without Bruce, what are they now? Offensively ravaged? 5.) We know for a fact Uncle Walt was eyeballing 3b Scott Rolen of the Blue Jays. With Bruce’s injury, how does the front office’s plan down the stretch to the trading deadline change their thinking and approach? First Half Biggest Surprise: Contrary to the Reds’ blogosophere, there have been several positives in the first half. For one, if someone told us on Opening Day the Reds were only five games out at the All-Star break, would we have been happy? Oh hell yes. So why aren’t we happy? Glancing over some notes I have taken along the way, it’s actually a terrific debate (and toss-up) on what is the team’s biggest surprise of the first half. I would make the argument for the effectiveness of reliever Nick Massett, acquired in the Junior Griffey deal with the White Sox last summer and a player many Reds fans wanted released in spring training. Who would have guessed he would supplant Jared Burton, if not made him available for trade? Massett’s line: 4-0, 2.29 ERA, 19 hits allowed, 30 strikeouts in 35 innings. But there are compelling arguments elsewhere. Like, Ryan Hanigan’s performance behind the plate as a 28-year-old rookie. Who expected him to bat .338/.428 and throw out 44 percent of would-be base stealers? What about Coco Cordero earning his $12 million salary by saving 21 of 22 games without all the nail-biting drama of last year? He has posted a 1.75 ERA in 36 appearances and going to the All-Star Game. His performance at the back has shortened the game by an inning. And let’s not forget reliever Arthur Lee Rhodes, older than dirt, carrying a terrific 1.055 WHIP with opponents hitting just .178 against him. Uncle Walt was heavily chastised for this two-year signing, which has not only worked out great for the Reds but also makes Rhodes an attractive trade possibility. You can even make a case for the biggest surprise being the effective 1-2 punch of non-roster invitees Laynce Nix and Jonny Gomes in left field. Yeah, it’s not ideal and certainly a vulnerable position, especially with Gomes’ defense and Nix’s inability to hit lefties or anything that isn’t straight. But together they have combined for .266-13-39 with 141 total bases. Not great, not awful, but certainly a surprise. First Half Biggest Disappointment: You can point a finger at all sorts of things when you have a losing record at the break. But what’s the biggest problem with this team? Lack of execution, fundamental play, inexperience, talent . . . what? An argument can be made for manager Dusty Baker’s lineup choices and construction. We all know he’s a “player’s manager” and that’s certainly a huge benefit, especially when you are strategy-challenged like Baker. The most ludicrous thing I’ve seen on any Reds blog this year was on Redleg Nation, where someone punched some numbers and determined (with serious conviction) that Baker’s lineups had cost the Reds 11.5 games. In half a season. A 23-game turnaround. Now you know that’s stupid, right? But Baker’s insistence on playing on-base allergic Willy Taveras at leadoff and center field each night has played a role in this team’s offensive problems. How much? Hard to quantify because you cannot guarantee results of hypothetical replacements because game situations, the opposing pitcher or his approach, and defensive alignments switch from batter to batter. So while Baker has done a remarkable job with a t We have to be fair; Baker had been throwing together patchwork lineups since spring training, when he warned about the small margin of error with the Reds’ thin roster depth. He was right. 1b Joey Votto, SS Alex Gonzalez, 3b Edwin Encarnacion and last year’s best pitcher, Voltron, have missed huge chunks of the first half. In fact, the Reds have lost 223 games to injuries. Look at that figure again. Two hundred and twenty-three. Heading into the second half with Bruce sidelined and Voltron’s return unknown, that number is going to skyrocket. That leads us to the front office, where Uncle Walt has done zero to fill holes and keep the roster full and fresh in times of need. They played shorthanded for ridiculous spells from late May to mid-June because they didn’t want to put someone on the DL or make a roster move that would force a move on the 40-man roster. Worse, when the team was gasping for air and needing positive energy from the front office, nothing happened. Silence. The lack of any move, like the failed attempt at acquiring Mark DeRosa from the Indians, crippled the team’s resolve and hurt the Reds with the fan base. So to me, the biggest disappointment of the first half was the do-nothing approach of Jocketty. Stats That Tell a Meaningful Story: A look at random first-half numbers. . . . * Runs are next-to-last in the NL and 26th in MLB in runs scored at 4.09 per game; * The Reds trail only the Giants in MLB with an OPS of 84, or 32 points lower than No. 1 Yankees; * The pitching staff ranks No. 13 in MLB and No. 7 in the NL with an ERA of 4.26, just ahead of the average of 4.32. The problem? Walks. Reds have given up 335, ranking No. 3 in the NL and No. 26 in MLB; * Reds have allowed 35 percent of inherited runners to score, ranking No. 4 in the NL and No. 20 in MLB. Surprising. The Second Half Storylines: Most everyone knows I’m a “storyline” kind of fan, and as the second half unfolds on Thursday, what will make us follow them if they officially fall out of contention? Finding the storyline is harder than it appears: * Buy or sell? * Either way, how do the replacements fit into the future plans? * Can the Reds have their first winning season since 2000? * Will this team get healthy and what happens if/when it does? * Getting Voltron healthy, Harang consistent and Arroyo traded; * The progression of Homer Bailey; * The progression of the young guys, especially if some of the top minors prospects are promoted; * Can Joey Votto win the batting title? * Will this team play better fundamental ball against a more challenging second-half schedule? * Is Baker sitting on a hot seat? In Other Things Redlegs Related, or Not . . . * Team MVP to this point, Brandon Phillips, Coco Cordero or Joey Votto? * In the first inning, opponents have outscored the Reds 72-44. Would have guessed the margin to be even wider; * The Reds were in New York this past weekend and MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann, a sensational baseball historian even if doesn’t know it’s Heisey, not Halsey, gave the Reds a lot of words on his baseball blog. You will probably enjoy his rip job of Dusty Baker, too. Read down, Olbermann has several Reds items from the weekend. btw: I wonder what Olbermann thinks of Ken Burns deciding to update his PBS documentary “Baseball” from 1994? At the time of the airing, Oldermann found so many factual errors, misrepresentations and misidentified photos in the series that he held a nightly count of the miscues. Plus, according to Burns’s documentary, the entire modern era of baseball revolves around Red Sox vs. Yankees. Geez, who woulda guessed? * Is the fastball still an effective pitch? Bleacher Report takes a look. And FWIW, I wrote this story almost 25 years ago. * And did you see this story in the Cincinnati Enquirer last week? Marge Schott’s mansion, Ambleside, is for sale. A cool $3.95 mil. Be sure to check out the photo slideshow tour. Seriously, if I had the cake I’d buy it. May not be able to afford heat or air-conditioning, but I’d buy it and hold croquet tournaments on the lawn and barbecue festivals on the grounds. Maybe even a Civil War reenactment, or perhaps a reenactment of the 1990 World Series. Yeah, quick: someone dial up Glenn Braggs, Billy Bates and Ron Robinson, the true creature. What a nice daydream. –30–
eam suffering from so many injuries, how much of the blame does he deserve for the team’s record?
‘The Votto Watch’ and Other Off-Day Musings
The big news of the off-day is “The Votto Watch,” as the Reds first baseman says he’s ready to play, per columnist Paul Daugherty (he lives!) of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Votto made the trip to Toronto and appears ready to be activated Tuesday. But not so fast? The Reds have said all along that Votto returns when he says he’s ready. But no matter how desperate the team is to get him back on the field, the Reds would be justified in using caution. Twice already they thought Votto had overcome his inner ear infection that was causing dizziness and nausea. Twice everyone was wrong. Now, with the team in Votto’s hometown of Toronto for three games, is this the right time and place for Votto to get back into action? Remember the media madness over him during the World Baseball Classic games played in Toronto this spring? There’s still a lot more about the Votto situation to be answered than just the health of his bat and the state of his readiness. In the meantime, we all stand glued to “The Votto Watch.” Fire the Manager! A Cleveland Plain Dealer poll reveals that 71 percent of Indians fans want manager Eric Wedge fired. This got me to thinking: If the Cincinnati Enquirer ran a similar poll about Dusty Baker, what would the percentage be? What to Do About Taveras? No, you cannot shoot him, but the subject of his playing time amid a horrendous slump is the lightning rod issue among Reds bloggers. It’s so akin to the Corey Patterson yap from a year ago that I’ve completely tuned out because the team’s offensive problems run deeper than Taveras and the leadoff spot. Cleanup was the black hole all along, dating back to the offseason, but we don’t hear anyone complaining about the .253 average with 12 homers, 49 RBI and .441 slugging percentage from Reds No. 4 hitters. Or the even worse numbers at the 5-hole, mostly handled by Jay Bruce’s inability to get an RBI that isn’t produced by a home run, a la Adam Dunn Disease. Instead, fans are focused on Taveras and to a lesser degree SS Alex Gonzalez’s offensive production before he went on the DL with bone chips in his elbow. Gonzalez’s defense has been so terrific and such an improvement over last year that his slow bat really hasn’t bothered me (or, likely, the pitching staff). But in tandem with the Reds’ overall offensive woes, I understand the haymakers to Taveras, specifically, and Gonzalez, in general. To most fans, Taveras should be released. That’s stupid and not happening. This organization, and not many others, is going to eat $6.25 million in salary after 68 games. Fine, you say, then bat him No. 8. Maybe, but Taveras’ game is his wheels so what’s the point of his speed if the pitcher is batting after him? Would you pull a Tony LaRussa and bat the pitcher 8 and Taveras 9? Logic dictates that if Baker insists on playing Taveras–after all, you can’t get on track from the bench–it should be in a platoon with Chris Dickerson. This is where Baker’s stubbornness and provinciality drives everyone nuts. Just put Dickerson in center and leadoff against righties for a few series and see how things go. But if Baker insists on Taveras being in the lineup and at the top of the order, why not flop him with Jerry Hairston for a few games? Hairston is a career .264/.334 batter as a leadoff and last year produced .362/.427 in the role in 202 plate appearances. My thinking is the 2-slot should get Taveras more fastballs and better bunting lanes if Hairston is on base in front of him. But then, Hairston is batting just .179/.195 in 41 PAs as a leadoff this year. Meh. Best Reds Tee of the Season: Living in Washington, D.C., it’s not easy to find Reds gear without going online and having to pay shipping charges. So every once in a while I like to prowl eBay for good deals. Last night I found the above t-shirt to be exceptional in style and price. Yeah, call me prejudiced and you would be correct. Simple yet stated, it’s the kind of tee a mascot can wear of himself in public and no one will snicker. Mebbe. The Hardcore Truth: Each time someone wants to fire Dusty Baker over lineups and what they consider general ignorami, consider how difficult it has been replacing the production of injured 3b Edwin Encarnacion and 1b Joey Votto. It’s a miracle this team isn’t in last place. Lance McAllister of 1530Homer did the math, and, frankly, it’s uglier than catsup on a hot dog. The replacements at the two positions combined have provided just a .209 average, 7 homers, 32 RBI and 13 errors. Here’s the breakdown for Reds starters at third and first base this season, minus Vot Third Base Rosales: 17-for-93 (.182 avg.), 2 homers, 9 RBI, 2 errors, 23 starts Hairston: 21-for-96 (.219 avg.), 2 homers, 6 RBI, 7 errors, 24 starts Janish: 1-for-2 (.500 avg.), 1 RBI, 1 start Totals: 39-for-191 (.204 avg.), 4 homers, 16 RBI, 9 errors First Base Hernandez: 20-for-99 (.202 avg.), 3 homers, 16 RBI, 4 errors, 25 starts Rosales: 7-for-26 (.269 avg.), no homers, 2 RBI, 7 starts Totals 27-for-125 (.216) 3 hr, 16 rbi, 4 errors Of course, Daedalus at Church of Baseball has the full story on why these guys can’t hit–the team optometrist. Don’t Line Up for Playoff Tickets Yet: Baseball Prospectus has an interesting feature I like to check from time to time–the odds of a team to make the postseason. This is updated by computer daily and is weighed by all sorts of factors and offers a percentage odds for every team of reaching the playoffs, wild-card and being world champions. Here’s how the NL Central stacks up today (based on percentage chances): WS WC PO Cardinals 51.9 10.4 62.3 Brewers 17.1 8.5 25.7 Cubs 20.5 10.3 30.9 Reds 5.1 3.6 8.7 Astros 2.5 1.7 4.2 Pirates 2.5 1.9 4.4 We really didn’t need a computer to tell us the Reds’ chances but there it is, simple and ugly, despite the Reds being only four games from the lead. No one should be getting in line for playoff tickets yet, nor should they be making bets on the Reds in Vegas. Reds Draft Recap: Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, the publication has offered its thumbnail looks at each team’s recent draft. Here’s what they had to say about the Reds and their top picks: Selections–Round 1: (8) Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State (photo, above); (43) Brad Boxberger, RHP, Southern California. Round 2: (57) Bill Hamilton, SS, Taylorsville HS (MS). Round 3: (88) Donnie Joseph, LHP, Houston. Quick Take–There is some debate in the industry as to whether Leake was a signability pick or not since the Reds were kicking the tires on some of the high-priced high school arms before settling on Leake. Those that like him think he’s the next Tim Hudson, while those that don’t think he’s no more than a back-of-the-rotation type. Another Pac-10 star, Boxberger, was the Trojans’ Friday starter and he showed plus-stuff during most of the spring while struggling at times to throw strikes. Hamilton was one of the draft’s best athletes, but he’s probably going to move to the outfield, and his power will always be a on the light side. Joseph excelled as a closer this year, with an above-average fastball/slider combination, but also some control issues. Notable Later Picks–Righty Daniel Tuttle (5th) showed some surprising velocity this spring, but at this point he’s far more of a thrower than a pitcher. Catcher Tucker Burnhart (10th) will be a difficult sign, but he’s got solid skills both at the plate and behind it. Mark Fleury (4th) is another catcher who is far more likely to sign, and he drew one A.J. Pierzynski comparison. Final Summary–Leake could move quickly through the minors, while Hamilton and some others provide upside. It’s neither an especially impressive nor disappointing group. Bud’s Stimulus Handout: Joel Sherman of the New York Post had an interesting (yet absurd) column the other day, suggesting the Commissioner’s Office should eat one contract from each of the 30 teams to help them balance their books after this season. That would cost MLB around $396 million for the stupidity of ownership. Uh, no. The Reds player whose contract should be eaten, according to Sherman: Coco Cordero ($25 mil)? Brandon Phillips ($18.75 mil)? Aaron Harang ($14.5 mil)? Edwin Encarnacion ($4.75 mil)? Nope. Willy Taveras at $4 million. Another Giveaway Heyday: There’s a bit of an uproar about how fast the giveaway Frank Robinson throwback jerseys (above) disappeared Saturday night at GABP. The first 20,000 fans in the park received the attractive mesh freebie but they were gone by 6 p.m. for a 7:40 p.m. start. Not surprisingly, by 8 p.m., they were listed on eBay. You know there’s a problem when one seller has sold 10 of the jerseys by Sunday night and has another six listed. Bobbleheads have been a dead market since 2005, but there are still a lot of Reds fans who buy a cheap ticket, grab the giveaways and immediately leave the park to sell the items on eBay. I’m no expert on Reds giveaway items, but it seems the most popular items in recent years have been the Marty and Joe bobbleheads from 2003, the straw sun hat from 2008 and these Robinson jerseys. What do you think? The Jenkinses Evolution: Sally Jenkins of the Washington Post has “grown up” to be one of the best sports writers in America, something many of us in the field didn’t envision 20 years ago. She was so guilty of overwriting and underreporting that a fairly wide group believed she was 1.) a lesser-talented Lesley Visser wanna-be and 2.) getting by on the nepotism coattail of her famous, more talented father. Her dad, of course, is the great Dan Jenkins, the long-time Sports Illustrated scribe known for writing the classic football novel “Semi-Tough” but more popularly known as perhaps the best golf writer of all time. Dan and his self-deprecating Texan humor never fails to entertain, and on Father’s Day this year Sally wrote a terrific story about the evolution of her dad to the world of Twittering. It’s the kind of piece in the past 10 years that will garner Sally yet another national sportswriting award . . . all well-deserved. Like her dad, Sally has greatly evolved. Her latest book, the true Civil War saga “The State of Jones,” is due out tomorrow and already headed to film. Things I Stole Off Other Sites: The Reds went 0-for-5 Sunday with runners in scoring position, making them 27-for-136 (.199) in their last 17 games. . . . Attendance for the White Sox series and the Civil Rights festivities was a healthy 103,415. Good for Bob, who says the weekend was a prelude to getting the All-Star Game. . . . C Ryan Hanigan has now hit safely in 26 of his 32 starts. . . . The injury bug is spreading to the minors. 3b prospect Juan Francisco has a balky hamstring. . . . Hardball Times’ weekly rankings have the Reds at No. 18. The Dodgers are No. 1. . . . Hal McCoy poses the question to Baker: What about Dog Hernandez to third base when Votto returns, keeping Hanigan in the lineup? Baker says no. I agree. That’s a spring training move, not midseason. . . . EE went 0-for-2 in his first rehab performance at Louisville. Don’t be shocked if his rehab lasts the full 20 days. . . . Our old pals Wily Mo Pena and Javy Valentin were released today from the Mets’ Class AAA Buffalo team. ‘Studio 42 with Bob Costas’: Growing pangs were naturally expected in the new MLB Network’s first year on the air, but the one area where the channel has greatly succeeded is the excellent discussion series, “Studio 42 with Bob Costas.” A new episode premiers each Monday at 7 p.m. with repeats throughout the week. The show is conducted in discussion format that Costas has long done so well. In recent episodes, there was an awesome sit-down with Bob Gibson and Tim McCarver to discuss the great Cardinals teams of the 1960s, and another chat with Al Kaline and Willie Horton talking about the 1968 World Series in which the Tigers stunned the Cardinals in seven games. Monday’s show features former umpires Steve Palermo, Don Denkinger and Bruce Froemming–all a part of an interesting or controversial piece of baseball history. Will Denkinger admit he completely blew that call in Game 6 of the 1985 World Series? Froemming’s controversial moment came in the 1977 NL Playoffs between the Phillies and Dodgers but he was also a Reds good luck charm–being part of the crew for the ’76 and ’90 World Series sweeps. Palermo was the third-base umpire who waved Bucky Dent’s home run “fair” in the 1978 one-game regular-season playoff between the Red Sox and Yankees. But his career was ended when he interceded in a mugging of two women in Dallas, was shot and suffered paraplegia. So if you love baseball history, you should watch “Studio 42″ or set your DVR for the series. –30– 
to and Encarnacion:
Off-Day Notes: Bruce, Uncle Walt and May Flowers
On this off-day before the Reds open a weekend series at Etlanner, we take a look at a few things of the past, present and very near future for this ballclub: Shaddup! Bruce Ain’t Ready. . . . As for the eternal cries and screams for No. 1 prospect Jay Bruce . . . there’s not a single person in the Reds’ front office who thinks Bruce is ready. Terry Reynolds, director of player development, spent a week doing evaluations at Louisville and his report pointed out things Bruce needs to do for getting called up. “He needs to improve nuances,” said Louisville manager Rick Sweet. “He still throws to the wrong base, still makes baserunning mistakes, still misses cutoff men. Those little things make all the difference in winning and losing ballgames. It’s not that he’s bad at them; he’s learning them at a higher level.” Bruce is batting .316-5-19 with an OPS of .901. More bothersome are the 24 strikeouts in 98 at-bats with just five walks. That’s fanning almost 25 percent of his ABs? In the minors. There’s zero reason to rush Bruce, and while he’s antsy, he agrees. “Absolutely. When I get up there I don’t ever want to come back to the minors,” he said. “When I get there I want to do well and help the Reds win and have a good time doing it. I have no intentions of going back and forth.” The feeling here has been the Reds would like to see Bruce get about 400 ABs in Louisville over 2007-08 before making a move. Otherwise, the kid’s talent will tell us organically when he’s ready. Chhhh-changes. . . . Is Uncle Walt Jocketty closer to making a few changes with the current roster? There may not be anything huge, but sources are whispering a few stirrings are in the works. He has some people scouting specific players for need, and they’re working on some things that ousted GM Wayne Krivsky was eyeballing. The Reds have two off days–today and May 8–but nothing would probably be done before they return home to play the Cubs on Monday. Uncle Walt conducted his pow-wow with Reds brass during the Cardinals series and the rest of the field operations people were expecting to be apprised today and Friday. Here’s what we know (sorta): The Reds remain interested in Texas catcher Gerald Laird as a full-time option behind the plate. Now that the Rangers have recalled top prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia and want him playing every day, there’s a feeling the Rangers might lower their price for Laird. But the Reds would also like to shed David Ross’s salary, and he would be a natural fit as part of a package for Laird so he can mentor and backup Salty. Again, it comes down to contracts. As part of a work in progress, moves I’d expect in May: A couple of Krivsky’s lieutenants to be fired; Javier Valentin released; Norris Hopper traded or sent to Louisville; Scott Hatteberg traded; right-handed 1b/OF bat added; another righty in the bullpen; No. 5 starter changed again. Krivsky had his bungles, as you expect from first-time GMs, but the irony is Uncle Walt finds himself in remarkably similar straits with the big league club as his two most recent predecessors. The Reds need to get younger (average age: 30), more athletic, more consistent and more flexible on payroll. If Uncle Walt has a provision in his contract that he can suddenly spend the extra $30 million a year the Cardinals have over the Reds in payroll, great! Your dog (or k.a.t.) can do the job. But since the payroll is sitting at around $75 million with some dead money on the boards, the chances are there’s no magic button to suddenly make the Reds contenders this year. The blogosphere has been ripe with silly notions that Adam Dunn has market, that Junior Griffey has market, that spare parts such as Hatteberg, Todd Coffey, Hopper, Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel have The Reds are stuck in the middle for 2008. We knew this back to 2006. Former GM Dan O’Brien recognized the issues, Krivsky certainly recognized, and now Uncle Walt has the entire scrapbook unfolded before him. Competing in 2008 was never quite realistic as long as the team has two outfield positions limiting payroll, youth advancement and lineup construction. Uh, Oh, Cueto? . . . I pick on the fantasy-leaguers because, well, it’s so easy. They overreact to each day’s lineup and each day’s performance of a player as though it’s Game 7 of the World Series. “DFA Patterson!” “Griffey Has to Go!” “Trade Dunn NOW!” Nevermind that Dunn has a strict no-trade clause until June 15 with serious limitations even after that date. Or that Griffey has strict 5-and-10 rights that dictate where he wants to be traded. Have you forgotten the ill-fated (and idiotic) Griffey-for-Phil Nevin deal? If Bailey is truly ready, we might see him soon. His 7-inning, 10-strikeout performance Wednesday against Toledo had Bats manager Rick Sweet cooing. By some measures it was Bailey’s best-pitched game at Triple-A. Will Jocketty be as deliberate as Krivsky would have been on recalling Bailey? “His stuff has just been electric coming out of his hands,” Sweet told the Courier-Journal. “All of his stuff is coming out of his hands better. Fastball, slider, curveball, change-up. All of his pitches are better. . . he’s in much more control of what he’s trying to do.” As young starters Cueto and Voltron are gonna hit the wall in their first season of starting in the majors. They’re not used to the workload or the pressure. They’re also not used to the MLB umpires and their smaller strike zones, the better hitters who foul off their best pitches and rock their mistakes, or the travel and wide time-zone differences that also affect young players. It’s a season of adjustment and experience for Cueto and Voltron, whose talents are advanced enough to keep them on the big league team through most struggles. Meanwhile, it’s smart to have experienced options on the roster for spot starting or filling in. The contending teams like to be 6-7 deep with starters just for this reason. It also appears Baker is doing a good job of handling this pitching staff thus far. I really like how he’s shuffled some things around off-days, giving guys an extra day here and there. It’s the first month of the season and Baker’s idea of giving the regulars like Griffey and Dunn more time off early rather than burning them down by July makes sense. That applies to Cueto and Voltron. There’s nothing wrong with pacing them along. Hey, Corey! Booooo, You Bum! . . . Corey Patterson will never win over Reds fans. They think he’s one of Dusty Baker’s guys, as if managers don’t have “their guys,” and the Bill James Stat Geek Society of Nimrods and Pocket Protectors can’t get off the subject of Patterson batting leadoff because of his lousy career OBP. The Reds don’t have a prototypical leadoff hitter, and Baker is right about Keppinger in the 2-hole. While the BJSGSNPP can’t see any other stat than OBP, Baker sees Keppinger’s bat-handling ability and the likelihood that the 2-hitter will see more opps to drive in runs than the leadoff. Besides, how many times a game does the leadoff guy actually bat leadoff? I’d like to see a study on that question. Meanwhile, Patterson plays for a very specific reason–he’s the Reds’ best defensive outfielder, he’s their fastest player, and he’s got statues on each side of him to cover for. Where he bats in the order? Almost by default because of the Reds’ styles of hitters. Is Patterson great? No. Is he a No. 4 outfielder? Yes. Is he the reason the Reds are 12-17? Absolutely not. Lineup Bickerings . . . . There’s no question Baker has brought some badly needed stability to the Reds’ batting order that was so grossly missing with Jerry Narron’s twitchiness. Now, a month into the season, we see that Baker’s insistence on batting Griffey-Phillips-Dunn in the middle needs adjustment. The surprising summation? Dusty’s lineup construction isn’t half bad. I know, I know . . . you’re saying look at the real results. I agree. But Justin’s study shows that Dusty isn’t a knee-jerk lineup-maker like Narron and Bob Boone, and that Baker figures some of the Reds’ underperformers now will eventually play up to the numbers–everybody all at once now–on the “back of their cards.” That said, for a number of years I’ve stated that Griffey has no entitlement to batting in the 3-hole. He’s not the Griffey of 1998, so why does he continue to get that privilege? To me, Phillips is the future No. 3, so put him there now. Move Dunn to No. 7 until he starts hitting. What about cleanup? I’m of the belief, for now, that Joey Votto’s ability to hit lefthanders and his ability to hit for a little power as well as the gaps makes him a cleanup hitter. Will this change as he goes through the league twice and scouting reports catch up with him? Probably. My lineup for now: 1. Patterson/Freel, 8 Oh, Great and Wise One. . . . Some of us who shall remain named (me) warned Reds fans near the end of spring training that this team had to survive April and May. The prediction here was 10 games under .500 by Memorial Weekend. You scoffed. Sure enough, the Reds are right on pace at 12-17. It sure rained on the boys in April–lousy hitting, shaky defense, GM gets fired, manager on the fans’ hot seat, blah-blah. Oh, sweet dalliance, will May flower upon us? Nah. You think last month’s trek was hard? May is a doozy: Braves, Cubs, Mets, Marlins, Indians, Dodgers, Padres, Pirates, Braves again. Is there more than one series the Reds can positively win in May? If not, the overhaul begins in June.
“It’s just small refinements everybody is looking for,” Reynolds told the Louisville Courier-Journal. “He’s had very little time in the minor leagues, especially in Triple-A. Everybody thought it would be to his advantage to get more time.”
We also know that Uncle Walt has been taking advice on leadoff options. The Reds are looking. Remember my earlier blog post about this subject? It appears one potential target was not mentioned among any of the names we bandied about. I don’t know the player the Reds are watching but was informed he’s someone below the radar.
big market. They don’t–at least, not yet. They also have contracts or talent levels that limit their return or movement. So aside from dealing one of the promising young players–Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Bruce, Daryl Thompson, Josh Roenicke, Adam Rosales, etc.–what players do the Reds have that other GMs are willing to offer quality replacements?
So we turn to the recent struggles of phenom Johnny Cueto. Guru Mario Soto has been summoned to the rescue, but a far larger point arises: Neither Cueto nor Voltron has ever pitched more than 161 innings in a season. But some fans are screaming,“Get Fogg Outta Here!” And just who is going to replace Cueto if they need to send him to Louisville? Belisle? Affeldt? Thompson from AA? C’mon.
A couple of weeks ago, the wacky mathematical genius of blogger Justin Inaz came up with a study on Dusty Baker’s lineups. He to
ok 14 different Reds lineup possibilities, plugged their 2008 stat projections into a spreadsheet, shook the bottle horizontally for 3 minutes, vertically for 2 minutes, and by wishing upon a star after inhaling a cheese Coney with one bite, came up with a fascinating and detailed analysis.
2. Keppinger, 6
3. Phillips, 4
4. Votto, 3
5. Griffey, 9
6. Encarnicion, 5
7. Dunn, 7
8. Bako/Ross, 2
Observations of Spring Training: Vol. 3
Wide Open Bullpen Race–With two weeks of spring games remaining, the competition for the bullpen spots is quickly intensifying. We all know Francisco Cordero and David Weathers have their roles secured, but the other four or five places? Rarely have we seen so many options for Reds bullpen vacancies. Many fans think 2007 second-half sensation Jared Burton is a lock–but not so fast. He’s looking eerily similar to the guy Jerry Narron was afraid to touch early last season. Since Burton was a Rule V pick this time a year ago and has minor-league options, he owns no entitlement under a new manager without a solid spring.
With the starting rotation quickly developing under Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Josh Fogg, Matt Belisle and Jeremy Affeldt find themselves pushed into the bullpen logjam. Who will survive? It’s easier to reveal who won’t: Jon Coutlangus (can’t retire lefties), Brad Salmon (wildness), Gary Majewski (command), Josh Roenicke (inexperience), Scott Sauerbeck (leaves best stuff in warm-ups) and, likely, recent Rule V waiver claim Jose Capellan, who probably doesn’t have time to make the squad after coming over from the Giants mid-spring. Perhaps the Reds will work out a deal to keep him in the minors.
You figure Mike Stanton stays because he’s due $3 mil even if he’s released (plus he’s having a good spring); you figure Kent Mercker has to be added to the 40-man roster, so perhaps he starts on the DL and goes to extended spring training or Louisville; and you figure Belisle sticks because he would be the only long reliever and a logical replacement in case of a problem in the rotation.
That leaves Burton, Billy Bray, Todd Coffey and Marcus McBeth for two spots. A healthy Bray makes the club. Given that hope, it’s worth watching Burton, Coffey and McBeth more closely this week. And remember: Coffey makes $925,000 this year, whether he’s with the Reds or Louisville.
Domo Arigato, Mr. Votto?–For all those wanting to hand rookie Joey Votto the first base job based on his September performance, this is why you don’t let go of a reliable, veteran fallback such as Scott Hatteberg, especially at a very friendly $1.85 million salary. Votto is having an awful spring. He’s batting .139 with just one RBI and one extra-base hit. He’s barely getting the ball out of the infield. Votto is traditionally a slow starter. But what he’s done in the minors and one month in the majors doesn’t provide him any benefit of the doubt just yet. Problem is, out of all the Reds’ young, unproven players, Votto is the only one truly with nothing to prove at Class AAA. But that’s where he’ll likely open the season until his bat heats up.
The Extra-Extra Man–Meanwhile, non-roster invitee Andy Phillips is having a good spring, providing a solid right-handed bat (with pop) at first, second and third bases, plus the outfield. With Jeff Keppinger indefinitely replacing the injured Alex Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips, who was a surprise release by the Yankees last winter and has three-plus years’ big-league experience, is playing his way onto the team as a platoon with Hatteberg instead of keeping a struggling Votto. At least, for now. Phillips’s natural ability to play first base gives him an edge over other non-roster invitees Andy Green and Jolbert Cabrera, who has 11 RBI.
You Do Understand . . . Corey Patterson is the Opening Day starter in center field, right?
See Ya, Sergio; Hello Guevara?–Rule V pick Sergio Valenzuela was one of the first cuts from the overbloated camp as the Reds returned him to the Braves for $25,000. The Braves promptly sold him to the Mexican League. This was easily the worst of GM Wayne Krivsky’s minor-league talent gambles and cost the team petty cash and a roster spot for either Jorge Cantu or Chattanooga reliever Jose Guevara, who went to the Padres via the Marlins in the Rule V draft a spot ahead of the Reds picking Valenzuela. The good news is Guevara is not getting much opportunity to pitch for the Padres because of an injury and could end up back in the Reds’ system.
Who could the Reds have selected other than Valenzuela? Brian Barton, a leadoff-type right-handed center fielder who is having a dynamite Cardinals camp, would have been an intriguing fit for the Reds. At 25 and coming off a shoulder injury in 2007 at AAA for the Indians, Barton has progressed through four levels in three years. He also has a career .417 on-base percentage in the minors. He was chosen four spots down from Valenzuela.
Hidden in Translation–A rep from the Hall of Fame was in Sarasota last week and asked Junior Griffey which cap, Seattle or Cincinnati, he wanted on his HOF plaque. “It won’t be red [Cincinnati],” Junior said. “It will be blue [Seattle].” That’s no huge surprise, but Cincinnatians are so sensitive about this sort of perceived slant against the city that it’s surprising there wasn’t even mild stirring on the typically bombastic Cincy radio talk shows.
Get Your Red-Hot Cuetos!–No sooner had Johnny Cueto lit up eyeballs and radar guns the past week did his choice rookie cards, the 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft issues, light up collectors. Cueto’s standard issue card (No. 145) reached about $5, but the money and market is on his refractor subsets, where the signed and numbered Cueto cards were leaping in interest and value throughout the week. The biggest? Cueto’s signed “red” refractor issue graded BGS 9.5 and numbered No. 3 out of just five cards made sold for $590 on eBay.
And, oh, for those seeking a Cueto autograph, there’s no telling what you might get–a hurried, sloshy “Johnny” script or printing his full name in all-caps block letters. Each of those Cueto sigs is a far cry from stardom-confident Tom Seaver practicing his autograph while at Southern Cal by wrapping onion-skinned typing paper around an orange.
Reds Spring Camp Sidebar: Questions in Sarasota, Part 2
Second in a Series
Even though spring training games are underway and many of the Reds’ question marks will be answered on the field, there are still lots of interesting twists, takes and turns about this team that we–the faithful–are pondering each day of camp. So we’ll address a few more of those questions in (fairly) short-answer format as a sidebar feature, “Questions in Sarasota,” between each installment of the five-part series “Reds Top 5 Storylines of Spring Training.” These questions and answers are not in any order of importance. Nor are they paralleling the mainbar series. They’re just interesting questions from fans to help all of Redlegs Nation enjoy watching the Nine prepare for the 2008 season:
The First Base Quandary
Q: Where does Scott Hatteberg fit in? –Charles Michels
Q2: Does Andy Phillips make the team? –Doug Smith, aka “The Bartender”
A: First base is increasingly a very interesting position to watch. While Votto has the inside nod on the starting job, what happens with the backup slot could affect several players and positions. Phillips appears to be roster-squeezed, especially since Jeff Keppinger is likely to get ABs as the right-handed first baseman and backup catcher Javier Valentin can slip into duty at first, as well. Plus, there’s quasi-incumbent Hatteberg’s situation.
Why the logjam? The only thing that figures is the Reds are waiting to see if Votto performs close to his September production this spring while also seeing if there’s a market for Hatteberg and/or Votto (in a bigger deal) as the season nears. Something must give. If the kid pitchers perform how do you justify demoting one of them in favor of a roster spot for three or four 1bs and/or three catchers? Because of Valentin’s role as a backup catcher and great pinch-hitter, the first-base backup will probably determine if Bako stays as a third catcher.
But Doc, It Only Hurts When I Throw
Q: What do you make of Bronson Arroyo’s health? I thought he was injured last year. –Jason Burwinkel, aka “AD05″
A: Lots of eyebrows raised about Arroyo’s health after throwing 129 pitches against San Diego May 16. He followed with a six-start binge of 0-4 with two no decisions, 10.78 ERA and 50 hits allowed in just 29.2 innings. Twelve of his 18 starts in the first half were more than 100 pitches, including a stretch from June to early July of five in a row with no less than 105 pitches.
Arroyo never confessed to injury and certainly he continued taking the mound. But later in the season he admitted to a tired arm. By Aug. 1, he was barely getting to the sixth inning . . . all of which raises an interesting point: For all the crap many fans give Dusty Baker about the way he rode Kerry Wood and Mark Prior in Chicago, especially during a pennant-winning season, why wasn’t there similar outcry when Jerry Narron and Pete Mackanin were mule-driving Aaron Harang and Arroyo the past two years?
Because, when you want to win games and you have a thin staff and even thinner bullpen, you go with your best guys as long as you can keep ‘em hitched to a bridle.
Temptation of Another (Retread)
Q: Can Reds management resist the temptation of signing Kenny Lofton to play in the outfield? –Eric Rodgers
A: Probably not. But it’s been oddly quiet on the Lofton front the past week to 10 days. The idea of a versatile lefty backup outfielder to slot opposite righty Norris Hopper makes a lot of sense. I still believe Jay Bruce spends at least 60 days in Louisville to start the season.
Sub-Prime Lesson: Don’t Spend Money You Don’t Have
Q: With the contracts of Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn and several others coming off the boards after this year, it seems the Reds could have $40 million freed for 2009. Will the Reds be big free-agent shoppers in 2009? –Brian Butler
A: Not so fast. Yes, with expiring contracts and expected buyouts the Reds are looking at just under $44 million in savings, but they have about $18 million in escalating salaries in long-term contracts, around $6 mil in potential buyouts, not to mention any arbitration cases and escalations on non-arb contracts. The real amount freed looks to be around $16 million to $18 million. Now, if the Reds decline Ross’s option and dump Freel’s salary, that’s an additional $6 million! You can see all the Reds’ contracts at Cot’s Baseball Clearinghouse.
But the Damn Ball Only Costs $12.99!
Q: You have mentioned the Reds’ “Great Eight” stars of the Big Red Machine will appear at a card and memorabilia show in Baltimore (March 8-9). I was thinking of getting a ball signed by all of them through mail order but the cost is $372. That seems high. What does a ball with the entire team of players and coaches cost? –Terry Hart
A: It depends on the condition of the ball and quality of signatures, but a ’75 team-signed official National League ball (Chub Feeney stamp) with all the key names–the “Great Eight,” the remaining reserves and pitchers, plus manager Sparky Anderson and batting coach Ted Kluszewski–is typically around $1,200; the ’76 ball is about $1,500. You can shop eBay and memorabilia dealers and sometimes find lesser-conditioned balls for $1,000 or a little less.
I’m a believer of vintage sports memorabilia being part of your investment portfolio. The Big Red Machine balls are a good example. I paid less than $650 each at Leland’s auctions in the ’90s and now some auction prices are tipping $2,000 for the ’76 ball. How do you argue with a 307 percent return?
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
–30-
mlblogsgoredlegs
Recent Comments