Results tagged ‘ Johnny Cueto ’
‘Bill James Handbook’ Projects 2010 Reds
The public relations people for the 2010 “Bill James Handbook 2010″ sent out team-specific excerpts Tuesday afternoon to the media in each baseball city. I received the one for the Nationals, which projects Adam Dunn to hit .251-40-103 with a .907 OPS. A buddy forwarded me the excerpt for the Reds and here’s what the book predicts: Key Reds Hitters (by OPS) Player At-bats R HR RBI SB Avg. OPS Joey Votto 502 80 27 90 7 .311 .947 Jay Bruce 574 92 38 95 10 .274 .877 Todd Frazier 507 61 17 69 9 .278 .807 Brandon Phillips 613 85 21 81 22 .269 .756 Drew Stubbs 544 76 11 51 51 .267 .726 Projecting stats for pitchers is very different from projecting offensive stats for hitters. “We used to believe that pitching performance was much, much less predictable than batter performance,” James says. “This is probably still true. . . due to injuries and other factors. Sometimes a pitcher gets hurt, and when that happens our projections for him are knocked into a cocked hat.” Here are three key Cincinnati pitchers for 2010: Key Reds Pitchers (by ERA) Player IP W L K SV ERA Bronson Arroyo 210 11 12 144 0 4.11 Aaron Harang 211 11 12 179 0 4.18 Johnny Cueto 174 9 10 155 0 4.40 What’s obvious here is James expects Todd Frazier to be a big part of the Reds next season. A lot of fans on the Reds blogosphere have debated the point of Frazier being moved to 2b late last season and this winter. I contend the Reds envision Frazier as the next Mark DeRosa and he plays all around the field because of his athleticism and major-league bat. But perhaps we shouldn’t rule out a Brandon Phillips trade, either. Offensively, the eye-popping numbers come from Jay Bruce. The 38 homers may not be a stretch in GABP, but 95 RBI? The .274 batting average seems realistic. But none of that will matter if James’s pitching predictions are anywhere close. Harang and Arroyo finishing under .500? And no forward progress by Cueto? That is bad, bad news for this team. I don’t have the book, which hit the shelves this week, but if anyone has $21.95 handy and grabs a copy, I’m sure everyone would be interested in knowing James’s projections for Scott Rolen, Paul Janish. Ryan Hanigan and Nick Masset, among others.
Price to Institute Systemwide Pitching Philosophy
Not mentioned in any of the articles about the Reds hiring Bryan Price as pitching coach is that he takes charge of the entire farm system’s pitching philosophy–instituting a clear and singular program from the big leagues to the lowest rung of the minors. I’m not sure the Reds have done this in the last 30 years but if they have, it has ef’n failed miserably. Price begins work immediately with the Reds’ instructional league and mapping out an offseason program for Reds pitchers. Just what is his philosophy? He’s big on conditioning, working quickly and proper mechanics. In fact, he’s a master at mechanical analysis and instruction. He likes for his pitchers to throw aggressively to their strengths and attack the strike zone. You’ll also see a big emphasis on learning and using the changeup. On the major league side, Price is a take-charge coordinator. The pitching staff is his domain, so the days of Coco Cordero pitching six straight days or Johnny Cueto throwing over 100 pitches after coming off the DL are probably over. Ode to Power, Soto: We told you here Oct. 9 that Price was at the top of the Reds’ wish list and we carried that theme pretty much throughout the process. Jocketty wanted to act fast, we also told you, and the reason was because of so much interest in Price. He turned down two other jobs. But inside the Reds blogosphere, the reaction to his hiring has been about 50 percent negative, 35 percent positive and 15 indifference. Why? Pining for in-house candidates Mario Soto and Ted Power. First, Soto was never getting the job. Never. He could have paid for the job and he still wasn’t going to be hired. Soto has done well in his brief appearances to work with Cueto and Voltron, and some of the kids in Florida, but the overall impression of him on the development side is not great. The word “lazy” keeps popping up as well as some difficulties in attitude. Plus, he just didn’t want the job. His candidacy was a figment of fans’ imagination. Power certainly was a viable candidate who deserved consideration. But the Reds hired the best available pitching coach out there, someone every team with a vacancy was trying to acquire. Power has no big league experience as a coach and in any other Reds situation he would have been given the job because of low salary. But Price has nine-plus years as a major league pitching coach and in seven of those years his staffs have been below league average in ERA. The Reds are rumored to have given him a multiyear (believed to be three years) contract worth more than $1 million. Here’s a case where the Reds didn’t go cheap, they didn’t go obscure. They hired the very best available coach and yet Reds fans aren’t happy. Go figure.
Voltron Has Tommy John Surgery, and Dick Pole on Hot Seat?
Who is to blame for Voltron’s elbow issues? Was it going to happen organically? Was it the way he was used at the end of last year, as the Verducci Effect might suggest? Was it his own fault for participating in winter ball and the WBC after last year’s workload?
What to Do Now? The trade of promising Zach Stewart, the Reds’ most MLB-ready minor league pitcher, seems especially ridiculous now as the Reds already have injury issues with Micah Owings, development issues with Homer Bailey, and financial issues with keeping Harang and/or Bronson Arroyo. Do the development people think LH Travis Wood and LH Ben Jukich are close? Would the trading of Harang or Arroyo net a close-to-ready pitcher, ala Stewart?
I’m not one who thinks Uncle Walt makes knee-jerk decisions–his extreme patience is legendary to us all by now–and I also don’t believe he made the Rolen deal as a one-shot object. The question is, how do they fill all these needs–shortstop, one or two outfielders, at least one more starting pitcher?
It’s getting very close to time for big-league tryouts for some of these minors pitchers at the top of the organization.
Pole on the Hot Seat? My pal the NL West scout says it’s no secret Dick Pole has lost the pitching staff and they have tuned him out. That tends to happen when your pitching approaches and game plans fail to produce results and players start “freelancing.” Plus, Reds starting pitchers are regressing. My pal the NL West scout has seen Harang a couple of starts the past month and he says all his cronies clearly see Harang isn’t “finishing off” his slider. Okay, if every scout in baseball can see this, why can’t the Reds? And why can’t Pole and Harang get it fixed?
When I emailed back to say if Harang is traded some pitching coach is going to fix him very quickly, my pal the NL West scout replied: “Absolutely . . . and make [Harang] lose a little weight too. I question the emphasis on in-seasoning conditioning with that team.”
Anyway, the point is Dick Pole is Dusty’s guy. He would have been Dusty’s pitching coach even if he wasn’t already on staff when Baker was hired. Now managers have long been allowed to select their coaching staffs–that’s proper. Jocketty has never been one to interfere too much with the manager and his people doing their job. But the Reds need to make coaching staff changes. Question is, with all the other issues with Baker–including some growing discontent among the younger players–is Dick Pole a fight Baker is willing to be fired for?
Fixing Johnny Cueto: We have all noticed that since Johnny Cueto was ticked off for not making the NL All-Star squad, he is 0-4 with a 10.32 ERA. Part of that is surely typical midseason fatigue. Part of that is gross immaturity on Cueto’s behalf (he should have been yanked for the look he gave EE when he failed to turn a double play last week against San Diego). But it’s also something we saw last year–his pitch selection. Why in the world is Cueto throwing so many sliders? Why has he gotten away from his bread-n-butter, the fastball and changeup?
Yeah, yeah, a real pitching coach would have fixed this problem. But if the pitcher is tuning you out, he’s shaking off the catcher time and again and he’s battling everyone, including himself, what are you going to do?
Batphone to Mario Soto, that’s what.
–30–
Off-Day Notes: Bruce, Uncle Walt and May Flowers
On this off-day before the Reds open a weekend series at Etlanner, we take a look at a few things of the past, present and very near future for this ballclub: Shaddup! Bruce Ain’t Ready. . . . As for the eternal cries and screams for No. 1 prospect Jay Bruce . . . there’s not a single person in the Reds’ front office who thinks Bruce is ready. Terry Reynolds, director of player development, spent a week doing evaluations at Louisville and his report pointed out things Bruce needs to do for getting called up. “He needs to improve nuances,” said Louisville manager Rick Sweet. “He still throws to the wrong base, still makes baserunning mistakes, still misses cutoff men. Those little things make all the difference in winning and losing ballgames. It’s not that he’s bad at them; he’s learning them at a higher level.” Bruce is batting .316-5-19 with an OPS of .901. More bothersome are the 24 strikeouts in 98 at-bats with just five walks. That’s fanning almost 25 percent of his ABs? In the minors. There’s zero reason to rush Bruce, and while he’s antsy, he agrees. “Absolutely. When I get up there I don’t ever want to come back to the minors,” he said. “When I get there I want to do well and help the Reds win and have a good time doing it. I have no intentions of going back and forth.” The feeling here has been the Reds would like to see Bruce get about 400 ABs in Louisville over 2007-08 before making a move. Otherwise, the kid’s talent will tell us organically when he’s ready. Chhhh-changes. . . . Is Uncle Walt Jocketty closer to making a few changes with the current roster? There may not be anything huge, but sources are whispering a few stirrings are in the works. He has some people scouting specific players for need, and they’re working on some things that ousted GM Wayne Krivsky was eyeballing. The Reds have two off days–today and May 8–but nothing would probably be done before they return home to play the Cubs on Monday. Uncle Walt conducted his pow-wow with Reds brass during the Cardinals series and the rest of the field operations people were expecting to be apprised today and Friday. Here’s what we know (sorta): The Reds remain interested in Texas catcher Gerald Laird as a full-time option behind the plate. Now that the Rangers have recalled top prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia and want him playing every day, there’s a feeling the Rangers might lower their price for Laird. But the Reds would also like to shed David Ross’s salary, and he would be a natural fit as part of a package for Laird so he can mentor and backup Salty. Again, it comes down to contracts. As part of a work in progress, moves I’d expect in May: A couple of Krivsky’s lieutenants to be fired; Javier Valentin released; Norris Hopper traded or sent to Louisville; Scott Hatteberg traded; right-handed 1b/OF bat added; another righty in the bullpen; No. 5 starter changed again. Krivsky had his bungles, as you expect from first-time GMs, but the irony is Uncle Walt finds himself in remarkably similar straits with the big league club as his two most recent predecessors. The Reds need to get younger (average age: 30), more athletic, more consistent and more flexible on payroll. If Uncle Walt has a provision in his contract that he can suddenly spend the extra $30 million a year the Cardinals have over the Reds in payroll, great! Your dog (or k.a.t.) can do the job. But since the payroll is sitting at around $75 million with some dead money on the boards, the chances are there’s no magic button to suddenly make the Reds contenders this year. The blogosphere has been ripe with silly notions that Adam Dunn has market, that Junior Griffey has market, that spare parts such as Hatteberg, Todd Coffey, Hopper, Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel have The Reds are stuck in the middle for 2008. We knew this back to 2006. Former GM Dan O’Brien recognized the issues, Krivsky certainly recognized, and now Uncle Walt has the entire scrapbook unfolded before him. Competing in 2008 was never quite realistic as long as the team has two outfield positions limiting payroll, youth advancement and lineup construction. Uh, Oh, Cueto? . . . I pick on the fantasy-leaguers because, well, it’s so easy. They overreact to each day’s lineup and each day’s performance of a player as though it’s Game 7 of the World Series. “DFA Patterson!” “Griffey Has to Go!” “Trade Dunn NOW!” Nevermind that Dunn has a strict no-trade clause until June 15 with serious limitations even after that date. Or that Griffey has strict 5-and-10 rights that dictate where he wants to be traded. Have you forgotten the ill-fated (and idiotic) Griffey-for-Phil Nevin deal? If Bailey is truly ready, we might see him soon. His 7-inning, 10-strikeout performance Wednesday against Toledo had Bats manager Rick Sweet cooing. By some measures it was Bailey’s best-pitched game at Triple-A. Will Jocketty be as deliberate as Krivsky would have been on recalling Bailey? “His stuff has just been electric coming out of his hands,” Sweet told the Courier-Journal. “All of his stuff is coming out of his hands better. Fastball, slider, curveball, change-up. All of his pitches are better. . . he’s in much more control of what he’s trying to do.” As young starters Cueto and Voltron are gonna hit the wall in their first season of starting in the majors. They’re not used to the workload or the pressure. They’re also not used to the MLB umpires and their smaller strike zones, the better hitters who foul off their best pitches and rock their mistakes, or the travel and wide time-zone differences that also affect young players. It’s a season of adjustment and experience for Cueto and Voltron, whose talents are advanced enough to keep them on the big league team through most struggles. Meanwhile, it’s smart to have experienced options on the roster for spot starting or filling in. The contending teams like to be 6-7 deep with starters just for this reason. It also appears Baker is doing a good job of handling this pitching staff thus far. I really like how he’s shuffled some things around off-days, giving guys an extra day here and there. It’s the first month of the season and Baker’s idea of giving the regulars like Griffey and Dunn more time off early rather than burning them down by July makes sense. That applies to Cueto and Voltron. There’s nothing wrong with pacing them along. Hey, Corey! Booooo, You Bum! . . . Corey Patterson will never win over Reds fans. They think he’s one of Dusty Baker’s guys, as if managers don’t have “their guys,” and the Bill James Stat Geek Society of Nimrods and Pocket Protectors can’t get off the subject of Patterson batting leadoff because of his lousy career OBP. The Reds don’t have a prototypical leadoff hitter, and Baker is right about Keppinger in the 2-hole. While the BJSGSNPP can’t see any other stat than OBP, Baker sees Keppinger’s bat-handling ability and the likelihood that the 2-hitter will see more opps to drive in runs than the leadoff. Besides, how many times a game does the leadoff guy actually bat leadoff? I’d like to see a study on that question. Meanwhile, Patterson plays for a very specific reason–he’s the Reds’ best defensive outfielder, he’s their fastest player, and he’s got statues on each side of him to cover for. Where he bats in the order? Almost by default because of the Reds’ styles of hitters. Is Patterson great? No. Is he a No. 4 outfielder? Yes. Is he the reason the Reds are 12-17? Absolutely not. Lineup Bickerings . . . . There’s no question Baker has brought some badly needed stability to the Reds’ batting order that was so grossly missing with Jerry Narron’s twitchiness. Now, a month into the season, we see that Baker’s insistence on batting Griffey-Phillips-Dunn in the middle needs adjustment. The surprising summation? Dusty’s lineup construction isn’t half bad. I know, I know . . . you’re saying look at the real results. I agree. But Justin’s study shows that Dusty isn’t a knee-jerk lineup-maker like Narron and Bob Boone, and that Baker figures some of the Reds’ underperformers now will eventually play up to the numbers–everybody all at once now–on the “back of their cards.” That said, for a number of years I’ve stated that Griffey has no entitlement to batting in the 3-hole. He’s not the Griffey of 1998, so why does he continue to get that privilege? To me, Phillips is the future No. 3, so put him there now. Move Dunn to No. 7 until he starts hitting. What about cleanup? I’m of the belief, for now, that Joey Votto’s ability to hit lefthanders and his ability to hit for a little power as well as the gaps makes him a cleanup hitter. Will this change as he goes through the league twice and scouting reports catch up with him? Probably. My lineup for now: 1. Patterson/Freel, 8 Oh, Great and Wise One. . . . Some of us who shall remain named (me) warned Reds fans near the end of spring training that this team had to survive April and May. The prediction here was 10 games under .500 by Memorial Weekend. You scoffed. Sure enough, the Reds are right on pace at 12-17. It sure rained on the boys in April–lousy hitting, shaky defense, GM gets fired, manager on the fans’ hot seat, blah-blah. Oh, sweet dalliance, will May flower upon us? Nah. You think last month’s trek was hard? May is a doozy: Braves, Cubs, Mets, Marlins, Indians, Dodgers, Padres, Pirates, Braves again. Is there more than one series the Reds can positively win in May? If not, the overhaul begins in June.
“It’s just small refinements everybody is looking for,” Reynolds told the Louisville Courier-Journal. “He’s had very little time in the minor leagues, especially in Triple-A. Everybody thought it would be to his advantage to get more time.”
We also know that Uncle Walt has been taking advice on leadoff options. The Reds are looking. Remember my earlier blog post about this subject? It appears one potential target was not mentioned among any of the names we bandied about. I don’t know the player the Reds are watching but was informed he’s someone below the radar.
big market. They don’t–at least, not yet. They also have contracts or talent levels that limit their return or movement. So aside from dealing one of the promising young players–Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Bruce, Daryl Thompson, Josh Roenicke, Adam Rosales, etc.–what players do the Reds have that other GMs are willing to offer quality replacements?
So we turn to the recent struggles of phenom Johnny Cueto. Guru Mario Soto has been summoned to the rescue, but a far larger point arises: Neither Cueto nor Voltron has ever pitched more than 161 innings in a season. But some fans are screaming,“Get Fogg Outta Here!” And just who is going to replace Cueto if they need to send him to Louisville? Belisle? Affeldt? Thompson from AA? C’mon.
A couple of weeks ago, the wacky mathematical genius of blogger Justin Inaz came up with a study on Dusty Baker’s lineups. He to
ok 14 different Reds lineup possibilities, plugged their 2008 stat projections into a spreadsheet, shook the bottle horizontally for 3 minutes, vertically for 2 minutes, and by wishing upon a star after inhaling a cheese Coney with one bite, came up with a fascinating and detailed analysis.
2. Keppinger, 6
3. Phillips, 4
4. Votto, 3
5. Griffey, 9
6. Encarnicion, 5
7. Dunn, 7
8. Bako/Ross, 2
Questions in Sarasota: Part 4
Even though spring training is almost complete and there’s still several question marks to be answered on the field, many Reds fans have turned their attention to the season ahead. A look at some of the recent queries:
Don’t Look, But . . .
Q: Has anyone looked at the Reds’ schedule in April and May? It’s really tough. With so many young pitchers can they survive this schedule? — Dale Lavritch
A: This is a great question because the Reds get screwed on the schedule–some way, somehow–almost every year. And Dale is right: It’s a brutal April-May schedule against non-division teams. The season opens with five games against playoff teams Arizona and Philadelphia, then a nine-game divisional roadtrip to Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Chicago. To compound, the Reds have yet another nine-game trip, to San Fran, St. Louis and Atlanta, that slops into May, followed by one home series against the Cubs and then a trip to the Mets. There’s also the first interleague series, against Cleveland, in May, and nine games against the Dodgers and Padres over the first two months. This is just ridiculous.
Oh, the Yankees play Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Kansas City and White Sox 14 times in April.
For all the promise of the young pitching staff and hope for the season, the Reds’ early-season schedule is a killer and could bury this team before Memorial Day. If they can get to June in some semblance of .500 things could get very interesting over the last two-thirds of the season. But if the Reds are 10-12 games under and the young pitchers are struggling. . . . Katie, bar the door.
Readiness
Q: How “ready” for the big leagues are these Class AAA pitchers?–Mary Gerstner
A: As the season approaches and Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez appear to have rotation slots won, this is the absolute biggest question of the Reds’ season. The Reds came to camp extremely thin in the rotation with a third-place finish in the woeful NL Central being hopeful. Now, they open the season with any playoff hopes riding on the coattails of Voltron and Cueto.
Spring training numbers don’t mean so much for pitchers; it’s about the stuff they have and the way big league hitters react and respond. In that regard, Voltron and Cueto have been the talk of all camps. On one side of the fence Reds fans are discussing the number of wins Voltron, Cueto and veteran Josh Fogg can bring to the back of the rotation. But on the other side, almost no one is talking about the number of losses this team will suffer if Voltron and Cueto are not ready for the big leagues.
Hither Bailey
Q: I see no purpose of sending Bailey to AAA. Why not let him work out of the bullpen with the Reds and gain the experience like they used to do with young pitchers in the old days? — Steve Brookes
A: We’ve heard more than a few times that Bailey has nothing to prove in the minors. Oh, yes he does. There, he can prove that he has command of all his pitches (which he doesn’t), that he can get past the fifth inning (which he can’t) and that he can be efficient in pitch counts (which he’s terrible).
Bailey is only 21 and what he’s shown last year and in spring training this year is he makes very few adjustments of how to work hitters from start to start. The best way to pitch, and pitch efficiently, is to attack, attack, attack the strike zone. Voltron and Cueto are making the team because of the way they get ahead in counts, putting the batter on the defensive for their “out” pitches. Bailey piddles and nibbles and shakes off signs, and seems to get lost with his mechanics from one batter to the next. Twice this spring he’s walked the opposing pitcher.
The bullpen, where he would get spot duty and come into games with runners on base, is not the way for him to learn. Especially since he’s awful at holding runners with that long stride. His workload would be erratic with off days and the use of a No. 5 starter, which is why you don’t see more young pitchers brought up in the bullpen these days. It was easier to find consistent work for these kids when everyone used a four-man rotation. Besides, the team behind you gets really, really pissed when a pitcher continually goes out there and struggles with command. You put up some runs, go out on defense and the pitcher needs 27 pitches to get through his half of an inning. Aargh!
No, Bailey needs to go to Louisville and work on the multitude of issues he has to be ready to beat Major League batters. His career is not over. He’s still fine tuning.
Baker’s Dozen
Q: If the Reds would win 12 more games with new manager Dusty Baker than they did last year they would have finished one game behind the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Can Dusty make up this ground? — Brian Rahe
A: Several e-mails after my “Baker’s Impact” article in Storyline No. 4 asked a similar question: How many more wins does Baker bring? Brian’s estimate of 12 would make the Reds 84-78. Improvement? Yes, but enough to win the division this year? That seems a pinch low. I’ll say at least 87 wins are needed to snag the berth and don’t believe the Reds will win that many unless this pitching staff (i.e., Cueto and Volquez combine for 27 wins) completely surprises.
Catchy Situation
Q: Once healthy, will David Ross improve his offensive stats? Is it more important to be a good defensive catcher and mediocre batter? If Ross cannot improve, will Javier Valentin fill the bill or do the Reds look elsewhere? –Larry Hampton
A: Avid reader Larry sums up the catching situation quickly and thoroughly, and you get the feeling the Reds’ braintrust would like to have a better all-around catcher. The problem is Baker hasn’t really seen Ross, who is battling back spasms, and the qualities that make him so valuable to the pitching staff. If Ross hits .240 he does enough defensively to hold the starting job. But there’s no doubt this team is not going far into the season with either Bako or Valentin starting. They’ll be forced into making a deal if that occurs.
In-Between at In-Between
Q: So do you drop Juan Castro from the roster after Alex Gonzalez is ready? –Dennis Kuhn
A: Odd as it seems, shortstop is one of the more interesting issues of the last positional spot on the 25-man roster. The chances were not great for Castro to make the team as a utility infielder out of spring training until Gonzo suffered his knee fracture. Then, Baker started making not-so-veiled references to his preferred defensive qualities of the shortstop. Obviously, Jeff Keppinger doesn’t fit all these measures; Castro does. Now, the Reds have about 18 players who are capable of playing backup in the infield. And a lot hinges on whether they keep Bako as a backup catcher (and third on the roster) when Ross is healthy. Barring an injury to one of the other starting infielders I don’t see how Castro sticks when Gonzo comes off the DL.
The Junior Equation
Q: Will Ken Griffey Jr. return to the Reds in 2009? –David Boddy
A: That’s the $4 million question. The Reds hold a $16.5 million option on Griffey for next season and there’s almost no chance he will be offered that contract. But what if he thrives under Baker and has a monster season? What if he puts up “only” 30 homers and 100 RBI? Do you let him walk? Here’s what could happen:
1.) Junior walks. There’s a wide feeling he will bookend his career by finishing in Seattle for a season or two, especially if the Mariners, as expected, are contenders.
2.) Junior has a solid first half, is traded midseason to a contender and hot prospect Jay Bruce comes up from Louisville to replace him in right field for the next 10-12 years.
3.) Bruce suffers an injury, setback or doesn’t hav
e a very good season at Louisville and the Reds can’t afford to hand him a position going into next year. They need Griffey as insurance.
4.) The Reds have to pay Griffey $4 million if they decline the option. They can always re-sign him for one year at a lower salary, if he’s willing, that includes the option money.
Here’s the catch-all: for the Reds to be contenders this year, they probably need a big year from Griffey. So if Junior has the big year, what do the Reds do? They can’t trade him midseason if he’s a key element of a playoff push. Then, perhaps, the Reds are backed into a corner on Junior’s contract for next year.
This is an interesting storyline to watch for the first half of the season, especially on the development of Bruce.
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
Observations of Spring Training: Vol. 3
Wide Open Bullpen Race–With two weeks of spring games remaining, the competition for the bullpen spots is quickly intensifying. We all know Francisco Cordero and David Weathers have their roles secured, but the other four or five places? Rarely have we seen so many options for Reds bullpen vacancies. Many fans think 2007 second-half sensation Jared Burton is a lock–but not so fast. He’s looking eerily similar to the guy Jerry Narron was afraid to touch early last season. Since Burton was a Rule V pick this time a year ago and has minor-league options, he owns no entitlement under a new manager without a solid spring.
With the starting rotation quickly developing under Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Josh Fogg, Matt Belisle and Jeremy Affeldt find themselves pushed into the bullpen logjam. Who will survive? It’s easier to reveal who won’t: Jon Coutlangus (can’t retire lefties), Brad Salmon (wildness), Gary Majewski (command), Josh Roenicke (inexperience), Scott Sauerbeck (leaves best stuff in warm-ups) and, likely, recent Rule V waiver claim Jose Capellan, who probably doesn’t have time to make the squad after coming over from the Giants mid-spring. Perhaps the Reds will work out a deal to keep him in the minors.
You figure Mike Stanton stays because he’s due $3 mil even if he’s released (plus he’s having a good spring); you figure Kent Mercker has to be added to the 40-man roster, so perhaps he starts on the DL and goes to extended spring training or Louisville; and you figure Belisle sticks because he would be the only long reliever and a logical replacement in case of a problem in the rotation.
That leaves Burton, Billy Bray, Todd Coffey and Marcus McBeth for two spots. A healthy Bray makes the club. Given that hope, it’s worth watching Burton, Coffey and McBeth more closely this week. And remember: Coffey makes $925,000 this year, whether he’s with the Reds or Louisville.
Domo Arigato, Mr. Votto?–For all those wanting to hand rookie Joey Votto the first base job based on his September performance, this is why you don’t let go of a reliable, veteran fallback such as Scott Hatteberg, especially at a very friendly $1.85 million salary. Votto is having an awful spring. He’s batting .139 with just one RBI and one extra-base hit. He’s barely getting the ball out of the infield. Votto is traditionally a slow starter. But what he’s done in the minors and one month in the majors doesn’t provide him any benefit of the doubt just yet. Problem is, out of all the Reds’ young, unproven players, Votto is the only one truly with nothing to prove at Class AAA. But that’s where he’ll likely open the season until his bat heats up.
The Extra-Extra Man–Meanwhile, non-roster invitee Andy Phillips is having a good spring, providing a solid right-handed bat (with pop) at first, second and third bases, plus the outfield. With Jeff Keppinger indefinitely replacing the injured Alex Gonzalez at shortstop, Phillips, who was a surprise release by the Yankees last winter and has three-plus years’ big-league experience, is playing his way onto the team as a platoon with Hatteberg instead of keeping a struggling Votto. At least, for now. Phillips’s natural ability to play first base gives him an edge over other non-roster invitees Andy Green and Jolbert Cabrera, who has 11 RBI.
You Do Understand . . . Corey Patterson is the Opening Day starter in center field, right?
See Ya, Sergio; Hello Guevara?–Rule V pick Sergio Valenzuela was one of the first cuts from the overbloated camp as the Reds returned him to the Braves for $25,000. The Braves promptly sold him to the Mexican League. This was easily the worst of GM Wayne Krivsky’s minor-league talent gambles and cost the team petty cash and a roster spot for either Jorge Cantu or Chattanooga reliever Jose Guevara, who went to the Padres via the Marlins in the Rule V draft a spot ahead of the Reds picking Valenzuela. The good news is Guevara is not getting much opportunity to pitch for the Padres because of an injury and could end up back in the Reds’ system.
Who could the Reds have selected other than Valenzuela? Brian Barton, a leadoff-type right-handed center fielder who is having a dynamite Cardinals camp, would have been an intriguing fit for the Reds. At 25 and coming off a shoulder injury in 2007 at AAA for the Indians, Barton has progressed through four levels in three years. He also has a career .417 on-base percentage in the minors. He was chosen four spots down from Valenzuela.
Hidden in Translation–A rep from the Hall of Fame was in Sarasota last week and asked Junior Griffey which cap, Seattle or Cincinnati, he wanted on his HOF plaque. “It won’t be red [Cincinnati],” Junior said. “It will be blue [Seattle].” That’s no huge surprise, but Cincinnatians are so sensitive about this sort of perceived slant against the city that it’s surprising there wasn’t even mild stirring on the typically bombastic Cincy radio talk shows.
Get Your Red-Hot Cuetos!–No sooner had Johnny Cueto lit up eyeballs and radar guns the past week did his choice rookie cards, the 2007 Bowman Chrome Draft issues, light up collectors. Cueto’s standard issue card (No. 145) reached about $5, but the money and market is on his refractor subsets, where the signed and numbered Cueto cards were leaping in interest and value throughout the week. The biggest? Cueto’s signed “red” refractor issue graded BGS 9.5 and numbered No. 3 out of just five cards made sold for $590 on eBay.
And, oh, for those seeking a Cueto autograph, there’s no telling what you might get–a hurried, sloshy “Johnny” script or printing his full name in all-caps block letters. Each of those Cueto sigs is a far cry from stardom-confident Tom Seaver practicing his autograph while at Southern Cal by wrapping onion-skinned typing paper around an orange.
mlblogsgoredlegs
Recent Comments