On this off-day before the Reds open a weekend series at Etlanner, we take a look at a few things of the past, present and very near future for this ballclub:

Shaddup! Bruce Ain’t Ready. . . . As for the eternal cries and screams for No. 1 prospect Jay Bruce . . . there’s not a single person in the Reds’ front office who thinks Bruce is ready. Terry Reynolds, director of player development, spent a week doing evaluations at Louisville and his report pointed out things Bruce needs to do for getting called up.

“It’s just small refinements everybody is looking for,” Reynolds told the Louisville Courier-Journal. “He’s had very little time in the minor leagues, especially in Triple-A. Everybody thought it would be to his advantage to get more time.”

“He needs to improve nuances,” said Louisville manager Rick Sweet. “He still throws to the wrong base, still makes baserunning mistakes, still misses cutoff men. Those little things make all the difference in winning and losing ballgames. It’s not that he’s bad at them; he’s learning them at a higher level.”

Bruce is batting .316-5-19 with an OPS of .901. More bothersome are the 24 strikeouts in 98 at-bats with just five walks. That’s fanning almost 25 percent of his ABs? In the minors.

There’s zero reason to rush Bruce, and while he’s antsy, he agrees.  

“Absolutely. When I get up there I don’t ever want to come back to the minors,” he said. “When I get there I want to do well and help the Reds win and have a good time doing it. I have no intentions of going back and forth.”

The feeling here has been the Reds would like to see Bruce get about 400 ABs in Louisville over 2007-08 before making a move. Otherwise, the kid’s talent will tell us organically when he’s ready.

Chhhh-changes. . . . Is Uncle Walt Jocketty closer to making a few changes with the current roster? There may not be anything huge, but sources are whispering a few stirrings are in the works. He has some people scouting specific players for need, and they’re working on some things that ousted GM Wayne Krivsky was eyeballing.

The Reds have two off days–today and May 8–but nothing would probably be done before they return home to play the Cubs on Monday. Uncle Walt conducted his pow-wow with Reds brass during the Cardinals series and the rest of the field operations people were expecting to be apprised today and Friday. Here’s what we know (sorta):

The Reds remain interested in Texas catcher Gerald Laird as a full-time option behind the plate. Now that the Rangers have recalled top prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia and want him playing every day, there’s a feeling the Rangers might lower their price for Laird. But the Reds would also like to shed David Ross’s salary, and he would be a natural fit as part of a package for Laird so he can mentor and backup Salty. Again, it comes down to contracts.

We also know that Uncle Walt has been taking advice on leadoff options. The Reds are looking. Remember my earlier blog post about this subject? It appears one potential target was not mentioned among any of the names we bandied about. I don’t know the player the Reds are watching but was informed he’s someone below the radar.

As part of a work in progress, moves I’d expect in May: A couple of Krivsky’s lieutenants to be fired; Javier Valentin released; Norris Hopper traded or sent to Louisville; Scott Hatteberg traded; right-handed 1b/OF bat added; another righty in the bullpen; No. 5 starter changed again.

Krivsky had his bungles, as you expect from first-time GMs, but the irony is Uncle Walt finds himself in remarkably similar straits with the big league club as his two most recent predecessors. The Reds need to get younger (average age: 30), more athletic, more consistent and more flexible on payroll. If Uncle Walt has a provision in his contract that he can suddenly spend the extra $30 million a year the Cardinals have over the Reds in payroll, great! Your dog (or k.a.t.) can do the job. But since the payroll is sitting at around $75 million with some dead money on the boards, the chances are there’s no magic button to suddenly make the Reds contenders this year.

The blogosphere has been ripe with silly notions that Adam Dunn has market, that Junior Griffey has market, that spare parts such as Hatteberg, Todd Coffey, Hopper, Corey Patterson and Ryan Freel have
big market. They don’t–at least, not yet. They also have contracts or talent levels that limit their return or movement. So aside from dealing one of the promising young players–Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Bruce, Daryl Thompson, Josh Roenicke, Adam Rosales, etc.–what players do the Reds have that other GMs are willing to offer quality replacements?

The Reds are stuck in the middle for 2008. We knew this back to 2006. Former GM Dan O’Brien recognized the issues, Krivsky certainly recognized, and now Uncle Walt has the entire scrapbook unfolded before him. Competing in 2008 was never quite realistic as long as the team has two outfield positions limiting payroll, youth advancement and lineup construction.

Uh, Oh, Cueto? . . . I pick on the fantasy-leaguers because, well, it’s so easy. They overreact to each day’s lineup and each day’s performance of a player as though it’s Game 7 of the World Series. “DFA Patterson!” “Griffey Has to Go!” “Trade Dunn NOW!” Nevermind that Dunn has a strict no-trade clause until June 15 with serious limitations even after that date. Or that Griffey has strict 5-and-10 rights that dictate where he wants to be traded. Have you forgotten the ill-fated (and idiotic) Griffey-for-Phil Nevin deal?

So we turn to the recent struggles of phenom Johnny Cueto. Guru Mario Soto has been summoned to the rescue, but a far larger point arises: Neither Cueto nor Voltron has ever pitched more than 161 innings in a season. But some fans are screaming,“Get Fogg Outta Here!” And just who is going to replace Cueto if they need to send him to Louisville? Belisle? Affeldt? Thompson from AA? C’mon.

If Bailey is truly ready, we might see him soon. His 7-inning, 10-strikeout performance Wednesday against Toledo had Bats manager Rick Sweet cooing. By some measures it was Bailey’s best-pitched game at Triple-A. Will Jocketty be as deliberate as Krivsky would have been on recalling Bailey?

“His stuff has just been electric coming out of his hands,” Sweet told the Courier-Journal. “All of his stuff is coming out of his hands better. Fastball, slider, curveball, change-up. All of his pitches are better. . . he’s in much more control of what he’s trying to do.”

As young starters Cueto and Voltron are gonna hit the wall in their first season of starting in the majors. They’re not used to the workload or the pressure. They’re also not used to the MLB umpires and their smaller strike zones, the better hitters who foul off their best pitches and rock their mistakes, or the travel and wide time-zone differences that also affect young players. It’s a season of adjustment and experience for Cueto and Voltron, whose talents are advanced enough to keep them on the big league team through most struggles.

Meanwhile, it’s smart to have experienced options on the roster for spot starting or filling in. The contending teams like to be 6-7 deep with starters just for this reason. It also appears Baker is doing a good job of handling this pitching staff thus far. I really like how he’s shuffled some things around off-days, giving guys an extra day here and there. It’s the first month of the season and Baker’s idea of giving the regulars like Griffey and Dunn more time off early rather than burning them down by July makes sense. That applies to Cueto and Voltron. There’s nothing wrong with pacing them along.

Hey, Corey! Booooo, You Bum! . . . Corey Patterson will never win over Reds fans. They think he’s one of Dusty Baker’s guys, as if managers don’t have “their guys,” and the Bill James Stat Geek Society of Nimrods and Pocket Protectors can’t get off the subject of Patterson batting leadoff because of his lousy career OBP.

The Reds don’t have a prototypical leadoff hitter, and Baker is right about Keppinger in the 2-hole. While the BJSGSNPP can’t see any other stat than OBP, Baker sees Keppinger’s bat-handling ability and the likelihood that the 2-hitter will see more opps to drive in runs than the leadoff. Besides, how many times a game does the leadoff guy actually bat leadoff? I’d like to see a study on that question.

Meanwhile, Patterson plays for a very specific reason–he’s the Reds’ best defensive outfielder, he’s their fastest player, and he’s got statues on each side of him to cover for. Where he bats in the order? Almost by default because of the Reds’ styles of hitters. Is Patterson great? No. Is he a No. 4 outfielder? Yes. Is he the reason the Reds are 12-17? Absolutely not.

Lineup Bickerings . . . . There’s no question Baker has brought some badly needed stability to the Reds’ batting order that was so grossly missing with Jerry Narron’s twitchiness. Now, a month into the season, we see that Baker’s insistence on batting Griffey-Phillips-Dunn in the middle needs adjustment.

A couple of weeks ago, the wacky mathematical genius of blogger Justin Inaz came up with a study on Dusty Baker’s lineups. He to
ok 14 different Reds lineup possibilities, plugged their 2008 stat projections into a spreadsheet, shook the bottle horizontally for 3 minutes, vertically for 2 minutes, and by wishing upon a star after inhaling a cheese Coney with one bite, came up with a fascinating and detailed analysis.

The surprising summation? Dusty’s lineup construction isn’t half bad.

I know, I know . . . you’re saying look at the real results. I agree. But Justin’s study shows that Dusty isn’t a knee-jerk lineup-maker like Narron and Bob Boone, and that Baker figures some of the Reds’ underperformers now will eventually play up to the numbers–everybody all at once now–on the “back of their cards.”

That said, for a number of years I’ve stated that Griffey has no entitlement to batting in the 3-hole. He’s not the Griffey of 1998, so why does he continue to get that privilege? To me, Phillips is the future No. 3, so put him there now. Move Dunn to No. 7 until he starts hitting.

What about cleanup? I’m of the belief, for now, that Joey Votto’s ability to hit lefthanders and his ability to hit for a little power as well as the gaps makes him a cleanup hitter. Will this change as he goes through the league twice and scouting reports catch up with him? Probably. My lineup for now:

1. Patterson/Freel, 8
2. Keppinger, 6
3. Phillips, 4
4. Votto, 3
5. Griffey, 9
6. Encarnicion, 5
7. Dunn, 7
8. Bako/Ross, 2

Oh, Great and Wise One. . . . Some of us who shall remain named (me) warned Reds fans near the end of spring training that this team had to survive April and May. The prediction here was 10 games under .500 by Memorial Weekend. You scoffed. Sure enough, the Reds are right on pace at 12-17. It sure rained on the boys in April–lousy hitting, shaky defense, GM gets fired, manager on the fans’ hot seat, blah-blah. Oh, sweet dalliance, will May flower upon us?

Nah.

You think last month’s trek was hard? May is a doozy: Braves, Cubs, Mets, Marlins, Indians, Dodgers, Padres, Pirates, Braves again. Is there more than one series the Reds can positively win in May? If not, the overhaul begins in June.