Red Letter Daze Updates on Twitter!

Follow along at twitter.com/MisterRedlegs   

 

Well, it’s not exactly what I had in mind. It’s not exactly what I spent all night/morning working on. It’s not exactly what you expected, either, I’m sure. Yeah, me neither.

Through most of last week I began compiling all sorts of information and statistics to throw at you for this Midseason Redlegs Report. In the end I tossed most of it in the trash.

That’s because after their (predicted?) 2-5 roadtrip through Philly and New York, the Reds’ season is officially on the brink and, no, I’m not giving one @#$&*! dime to John Feinstein. We can look at the NL Central standings and see the Reds are 42-45 but only five games behind the Cardinals. Yay! We can also look at the NL Central standings and see the Reds are in fifth place and closer to the cellar, only 4.5 games ahead of the Pirates. Boo!

This “Stuck in the Middle With You” groundswell, as Stealers Wheel sang back in the early ’70s, leaves us decidedly split on what direction the Reds should take in the second half: buy players for a playoff run, or sell off parts to build for 2010? The interesting thing about this position is there seems to be hope–hope for immediate improvement after eight straight losing seasons and hope for sustained success in the near future.

Personally, I never believed this roster was playoff material, or even .500 material, coming out of spring training. But many of you are believers, owning that hope (and prayer) that five games can be overcome. It’s not impossible. I want to believe you for believing. I really do. Deep down so do lots of skeptical, cynical Reds fans.

That’s where you are asked to answer: “What should Uncle Walt and the Reds do for the second half?” Buy parts that help for a run now, or sell off assets to build toward next year and beyond? Or, maybe a little of both.

Even though the Reds backslid into the All-Star Game break and did so in pretty ugly fashion, the position of the team is perhaps its best in 10 years. We see the young pitching developing and the farm system sprouting, and only the farsighted can scream for “winning now,” regardless of the cost. In the past couple of weeks, more of the fan base has come around to the notion this roster needs more than one or two established new players to make a playoff run. We’re not talking World Series run or NLCS run. We’re talking about just getting past “Go” and collecting the $200.

So as the first half closed and second half beckons, we’ll take a look at some of the things looking back, forward and in the now. 

NEWS! NEWS! NEWS! Bruce Out 6-8 Weeks: The good news of the day is Reds RF Jay Bruce will not require surgery on his broken right wrist suffered Saturday night in New York. He will be out 6-8 weeks, which raises a couple of interesting points:

1.) Can the Reds place him on the 60-day DL so they don’t have to make a 40-man roster removal if they intend to call up Drew Stubbs or Chris Heisey from Class AAA Louisville? With healing, physical therapy and baseball rehab, eight weeks seems about right, especially since the minors season will be concluded by the 60-day activation date of Sept. 12;

2.) What to do about right field now? Call up one of the youngsters or make a deal? Uncle Walt was already looking for an outfield bat–like, since last winter–but now there is a sense of roster urgency;

3.) Or is there a sense of urgency? SS Alex Gonzalez is due back from the DL in two weeks and Jerry Hairston could then become the extra outfielder, perhaps the starter in left field. It appears Chris Dickerson will take Bruce’s place in right field–at least, for now;

4.) Is the Reds’ season officially over without Bruce? He was hitting just .207/.283/.471 but he has 18 taters with 41 RBI and he was at least a “threat” to do something with the bat. I mean, if they were offensively challenged without Bruce, what are they now? Offensively ravaged?

5.) We know for a fact Uncle Walt was eyeballing 3b Scott Rolen of the Blue Jays. With Bruce’s injury, how does the front office’s plan down the stretch to the trading deadline change their thinking and approach? 

First Half Biggest Surprise: Contrary to the Reds’ blogosophere, there have been several positives in the first half. For one, if someone told us on Opening Day the Reds were only five games out at the All-Star break, would we have been happy? Oh hell yes. So why aren’t we happy?

Glancing over some notes I have taken along the way, it’s actually a terrific debate (and toss-up) on what is the team’s biggest surprise of the first half. I would make the argument for the effectiveness of reliever Nick Massett, acquired in the Junior Griffey deal with the White Sox last summer and a player many Reds fans wanted released in spring training. Who would have guessed he would supplant Jared Burton, if not made him available for trade? Massett’s line: 4-0, 2.29 ERA, 19 hits allowed, 30 strikeouts in 35 innings.

But there are compelling arguments elsewhere. Like, Ryan Hanigan’s performance behind the plate as a 28-year-old rookie. Who expected him to bat .338/.428 and throw out 44 percent of would-be base stealers? What about Coco Cordero earning his $12 million salary by saving 21 of 22 games without all the nail-biting drama of last year? He has posted a 1.75 ERA in 36 appearances and going to the All-Star Game. His performance at the back has shortened the game by an inning.

And let’s not forget reliever Arthur Lee Rhodes, older than dirt, carrying a terrific 1.055 WHIP with opponents hitting just .178 against him. Uncle Walt was heavily chastised for this two-year signing, which has not only worked out great for the Reds but also makes Rhodes an attractive trade possibility.

You can even make a case for the biggest surprise being the effective 1-2 punch of non-roster invitees Laynce Nix and Jonny Gomes in left field. Yeah, it’s not ideal and certainly a vulnerable position, especially with Gomes’ defense and Nix’s inability to hit lefties or anything that isn’t straight. But together they have combined for .266-13-39 with 141 total bases. Not great, not awful, but certainly a surprise.

First Half Biggest Disappointment: You can point a finger at all sorts of things when you have a losing record at the break. But what’s the biggest problem with this team? Lack of execution, fundamental play, inexperience, talent . . . what?

An argument can be made for manager Dusty Baker’s lineup choices and construction. We all know he’s a “player’s manager” and that’s certainly a huge benefit, especially when you are strategy-challenged like Baker. The most ludicrous thing I’ve seen on any Reds blog this year was on Redleg Nation, where someone punched some numbers and determined (with serious conviction) that Baker’s lineups had cost the Reds 11.5 games. In half a season. A 23-game turnaround. Now you know that’s stupid, right?

But Baker’s insistence on playing on-base allergic Willy Taveras at leadoff and center field each night has played a role in this team’s offensive problems. How much? Hard to quantify because you cannot guarantee results of hypothetical replacements because game situations, the opposing pitcher or his approach, and defensive alignments switch from batter to batter. So while Baker has done a remarkable job with a t
eam suffering from so many injuries, how much of the blame does he deserve for the team’s record?

We have to be fair; Baker had been throwing together patchwork lineups since spring training, when he warned about the small margin of error with the Reds’ thin roster depth. He was right. 1b Joey Votto, SS Alex Gonzalez, 3b Edwin Encarnacion and last year’s best pitcher, Voltron, have missed huge chunks of the first half. In fact, the Reds have lost 223 games to injuries. Look at that figure again. Two hundred and twenty-three. Heading into the second half with Bruce sidelined and Voltron’s return unknown, that number is going to skyrocket. 

That leads us to the front office, where Uncle Walt has done zero to fill holes and keep the roster full and fresh in times of need. They played shorthanded for ridiculous spells from late May to mid-June because they didn’t want to put someone on the DL or make a roster move that would force a move on the 40-man roster. Worse, when the team was gasping for air and needing positive energy from the front office, nothing happened. Silence. The lack of any move, like the failed attempt at acquiring Mark DeRosa from the Indians, crippled the team’s resolve and hurt the Reds with the fan base. 

So to me, the biggest disappointment of the first half was the do-nothing approach of Jocketty.

Stats That Tell a Meaningful Story: A look at random first-half numbers. . . .

* Runs are next-to-last in the NL and 26th in MLB in runs scored at 4.09 per game;

* The Reds trail only the Giants in MLB with an OPS of 84, or 32 points lower than No. 1 Yankees;

* The pitching staff ranks No. 13 in MLB and No. 7 in the NL with an ERA of 4.26, just ahead of the average of 4.32. The problem? Walks. Reds have given up 335, ranking No. 3 in the NL and No. 26 in MLB;

* Reds have allowed 35 percent of inherited runners to score, ranking No. 4 in the NL and No. 20 in MLB. Surprising.

The Second Half Storylines: Most everyone knows I’m a “storyline” kind of fan, and as the second half unfolds on Thursday, what will make us follow them if they officially fall out of contention? Finding the storyline is harder than it appears:

* Buy or sell?

* Either way, how do the replacements fit into the future plans?

* Can the Reds have their first winning season since 2000?

* Will this team get healthy and what happens if/when it does?  

* Getting Voltron healthy, Harang consistent and Arroyo traded; 

* The progression of Homer Bailey;

* The progression of the young guys, especially if some of the top minors prospects are promoted;  

* Can Joey Votto win the batting title?

* Will this team play better fundamental ball against a more challenging second-half schedule? 

* Is Baker sitting on a hot seat? 

In Other Things Redlegs Related, or Not . . . 

* Team MVP to this point, Brandon Phillips, Coco Cordero or Joey Votto?

* In the first inning, opponents have outscored the Reds 72-44. Would have guessed the margin to be even wider;

* The Reds were in New York this past weekend and MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann, a sensational baseball historian even if doesn’t know it’s Heisey, not Halsey, gave the Reds a lot of words on his baseball blog. You will probably enjoy his rip job of Dusty Baker, too. Read down, Olbermann has several Reds items from the weekend.

btw: I wonder what Olbermann thinks of Ken Burns deciding to update his PBS documentary “Baseball” from 1994? At the time of the airing, Oldermann found so many factual errors, misrepresentations and misidentified photos in the series that he held a nightly count of the miscues. Plus, according to Burns’s documentary, the entire modern era of baseball revolves around Red Sox vs. Yankees. Geez, who woulda guessed?

* Is the fastball still an effective pitch? Bleacher Report takes a look. And FWIW, I wrote this story almost 25 years ago.

* And did you see this story in the Cincinnati Enquirer last week? Marge Schott’s mansion, Ambleside, is for sale. A cool $3.95 mil. Be sure to check out the photo slideshow tour. Seriously, if I had the cake I’d buy it. May not be able to afford heat or air-conditioning, but I’d buy it and hold croquet tournaments on the lawn and barbecue festivals on the grounds. Maybe even a Civil War reenactment, or perhaps a reenactment of the 1990 World Series. Yeah, quick: someone dial up Glenn Braggs, Billy Bates and Ron Robinson, the true creature.

What a nice daydream.

–30–