Results tagged ‘ pitching ’
Mike Lincoln, the Belly Itcher?
In perhaps the greatest one-post diatribe in the short history of RedLetterDaze.com, blogger RPA responded in disgust, anger, frustration, drunken stupor–you name it!–at the latest lousy performance this year by Reds reliever Mike Lincoln. When StLRedsFan queried, “Is Lincoln a pitcher or a belly itcher,” RPA spewed forth: “It depends. If there is a class ‘pitcher’ which consists of people who throw a baseball off the mound with the intent of recording outs for his team, and if all those who are not pitchers are in fact belly itchers, then since Mike Lincoln is not a pitcher he must, by definition, be a belly itcher. “The real question is if all non-pitchers are belly itchers. I don’t know the answer to this, but based on various chants I have heard at Little League games, I would infer that the answer is that all non-pitchers are, in fact, belly itchers. The subject really deserves more study–and another government grant to conduct said study.” Now, this is where the story gets a little wacky. Apparently RPA is not the first to get into a tizzy about belly-itcher pitchers. The timeless chant of “We want a pitcher, not a belly itcher,” has been an impetus for youth sports programs to instill sportsmanship and conduct clauses against parents in order for their kids to participate. Naturally, these clauses have been contested in courts (and failed). There are t-shirts about Belly-Itcher pitchers. There was a kickball team named “The Belly Itchers” that was once ranked No. 1 in the country. In the video game MLB ’09, gamers can use a microphone to heckle players. Yep, the “belly itcher” mantra is fairly popular. In 2002, a student at Penn University actually wrote a paper looking at a pitcher’s abilities compared to his success. In his summary for “We Want a Pitcher, Not a Belly-Itcher,” Sumit Jay Darji reasons, “Belly-itching on the mound while waiting for run support proved an ineffective method for achieving success.” Hysterical. According to the website grants.gov, there is no current study being conducted on belly-itcher pitchers, or belly itching, for that matter. But my friend Melanie, who moonlights as a grant writer, says a study for belly itching is certainly viable. “If the federal government can spend $19 million studying the gas emissions of cow farts, a grant for belly-itcher pitchers has a shot.” So, RPA is onto something. And for those more interested in the immediate removal of Mike Lincoln from the Reds’ pitching staff, Nachos Grande shares your disdain. –30–
Poor Adam Harnag, No Respect at All!
Eric at RedlegNation.com does a very nice review of Reds pitchers for April, showing that for once in a lifetime pitching isn’t the team’s problem. Say what?!?! Yeah, no kiddin’. The pleasant surprise, as Eric notes, is relievers Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Lincoln, Jared Burton and Kent Mercker are combining for a 2.84 ERA while allowing just 7 of 26 runners to score. They’re also only costing $5 million as a group. As badly as the bullpen has struggled the past few years, the concept of the bullpen actually being effective is like punching a Bobo blow-up clown and the damn thing doesn’t punch back. But anytime I hear about “luck” and starting pitchers I immediately want to know: Who was that pitcher’s opponent on the mound? Were these winnable matchups against beatable teams? What did his offense and defense do (or not do) for him? We all know Harang is the Reds’ No. 1 starter, so we can surmise that he’s matched up with his opponent’s best couple of twirlers, right? Not so fast. In his seven starts, Harang pitched against his opponent’s No. 1 only once–Opening Day against Arizona’s Brandon Webb. He hasn’t faced any of his opponent’s No. 2 starters. That means he’s missed top-of-the-rotation starters in Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ben Sheets, Jeff Suppan, Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Adam Wainwright. Through it all, Harang is 1-4 with a 2.98 ERA with two no-decisions. The Reds won both of Harang’s no-decision games and, realistically, they should have won just one of his losses (to St. Louis, leaving 18 on base). The Reds were outpitched by Webb and San Francisco’s Jonathan Sanchez. Harang’s worst start was a 9-5 loss to the Cubs, but again a game where the Reds left 18 stranded. Obviously, as suggested several times over the past week, manager Dusty Baker needs to do some batting order shuffling to rejuvenate the 3-4-5 slots, which has produced a .143 batting average (10-for-70) in Harang’s starts with just 6 RBI while leaving 22 men on base. Overall, the Reds have left a ******** 81 on base in Harang’s starts for an 11.6 per game average. Here’s a closer look at Harang’s starts and his opponents: Notes: Reds 3-4-5 indicates the ABs, Hits and RBI the 3-4-5 slots of the batting order produced in that start; Run support is for the innings by which Harang was in the game; The Reds’ overall run support for Harang’s starts is 3.1 per game; Team LOBs are for the full game of Harang’s starts.
Anyway, Eric touches on Aaron Harang’s pitiful luck, going 1-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. In today’s “5 Ways to Fix the Reds”article, Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News has a good line when he writes that Harang could go 6-24 at this pace and win the ERA title. The Reds have provided him with just 15 runs of support in the innings Harang has been on the mound for a whoop-dee-do per-start average of 2.1.
Pitcher
Rotation
3-4-5
Support
LOB
#4
Reds Spring Camp Sidebar: Questions in Sarasota, Part 2
Second in a Series
Even though spring training games are underway and many of the Reds’ question marks will be answered on the field, there are still lots of interesting twists, takes and turns about this team that we–the faithful–are pondering each day of camp. So we’ll address a few more of those questions in (fairly) short-answer format as a sidebar feature, “Questions in Sarasota,” between each installment of the five-part series “Reds Top 5 Storylines of Spring Training.” These questions and answers are not in any order of importance. Nor are they paralleling the mainbar series. They’re just interesting questions from fans to help all of Redlegs Nation enjoy watching the Nine prepare for the 2008 season:
The First Base Quandary
Q: Where does Scott Hatteberg fit in? –Charles Michels
Q2: Does Andy Phillips make the team? –Doug Smith, aka “The Bartender”
A: First base is increasingly a very interesting position to watch. While Votto has the inside nod on the starting job, what happens with the backup slot could affect several players and positions. Phillips appears to be roster-squeezed, especially since Jeff Keppinger is likely to get ABs as the right-handed first baseman and backup catcher Javier Valentin can slip into duty at first, as well. Plus, there’s quasi-incumbent Hatteberg’s situation.
Why the logjam? The only thing that figures is the Reds are waiting to see if Votto performs close to his September production this spring while also seeing if there’s a market for Hatteberg and/or Votto (in a bigger deal) as the season nears. Something must give. If the kid pitchers perform how do you justify demoting one of them in favor of a roster spot for three or four 1bs and/or three catchers? Because of Valentin’s role as a backup catcher and great pinch-hitter, the first-base backup will probably determine if Bako stays as a third catcher.
But Doc, It Only Hurts When I Throw
Q: What do you make of Bronson Arroyo’s health? I thought he was injured last year. –Jason Burwinkel, aka “AD05″
A: Lots of eyebrows raised about Arroyo’s health after throwing 129 pitches against San Diego May 16. He followed with a six-start binge of 0-4 with two no decisions, 10.78 ERA and 50 hits allowed in just 29.2 innings. Twelve of his 18 starts in the first half were more than 100 pitches, including a stretch from June to early July of five in a row with no less than 105 pitches.
Arroyo never confessed to injury and certainly he continued taking the mound. But later in the season he admitted to a tired arm. By Aug. 1, he was barely getting to the sixth inning . . . all of which raises an interesting point: For all the crap many fans give Dusty Baker about the way he rode Kerry Wood and Mark Prior in Chicago, especially during a pennant-winning season, why wasn’t there similar outcry when Jerry Narron and Pete Mackanin were mule-driving Aaron Harang and Arroyo the past two years?
Because, when you want to win games and you have a thin staff and even thinner bullpen, you go with your best guys as long as you can keep ‘em hitched to a bridle.
Temptation of Another (Retread)
Q: Can Reds management resist the temptation of signing Kenny Lofton to play in the outfield? –Eric Rodgers
A: Probably not. But it’s been oddly quiet on the Lofton front the past week to 10 days. The idea of a versatile lefty backup outfielder to slot opposite righty Norris Hopper makes a lot of sense. I still believe Jay Bruce spends at least 60 days in Louisville to start the season.
Sub-Prime Lesson: Don’t Spend Money You Don’t Have
Q: With the contracts of Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn and several others coming off the boards after this year, it seems the Reds could have $40 million freed for 2009. Will the Reds be big free-agent shoppers in 2009? –Brian Butler
A: Not so fast. Yes, with expiring contracts and expected buyouts the Reds are looking at just under $44 million in savings, but they have about $18 million in escalating salaries in long-term contracts, around $6 mil in potential buyouts, not to mention any arbitration cases and escalations on non-arb contracts. The real amount freed looks to be around $16 million to $18 million. Now, if the Reds decline Ross’s option and dump Freel’s salary, that’s an additional $6 million! You can see all the Reds’ contracts at Cot’s Baseball Clearinghouse.
But the Damn Ball Only Costs $12.99!
Q: You have mentioned the Reds’ “Great Eight” stars of the Big Red Machine will appear at a card and memorabilia show in Baltimore (March 8-9). I was thinking of getting a ball signed by all of them through mail order but the cost is $372. That seems high. What does a ball with the entire team of players and coaches cost? –Terry Hart
A: It depends on the condition of the ball and quality of signatures, but a ’75 team-signed official National League ball (Chub Feeney stamp) with all the key names–the “Great Eight,” the remaining reserves and pitchers, plus manager Sparky Anderson and batting coach Ted Kluszewski–is typically around $1,200; the ’76 ball is about $1,500. You can shop eBay and memorabilia dealers and sometimes find lesser-conditioned balls for $1,000 or a little less.
I’m a believer of vintage sports memorabilia being part of your investment portfolio. The Big Red Machine balls are a good example. I paid less than $650 each at Leland’s auctions in the ’90s and now some auction prices are tipping $2,000 for the ’76 ball. How do you argue with a 307 percent return?
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
–30-
Signing Josh Fogg: Things That Make You Go Hmmm
The Reds signed Colorado’s middling Josh Fogg to be one of their starting pitchers, raising the ire and eyebrows of way too many fans. Much of Redlegs Nation is upset the team didn’t add another frontline starter to make a run at the division this year. The discontent also spreads to the obvious squeezing of the kid pitchers from the rotation competitions and what appears to be another stepping-stone year, as if the last seven seasons weren’t already.
The Fogg signing could be good, bad or indifferent. Who knows? But on the acrylic surface he gives the Reds a piece of badly needed security in case Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Matt Maloney prove in spring training they need more minors time. Fogg has at least 26 starts each of the past six seasons, and at a paltry $1 million, his salary is $1.7 million below the Major League average.
With nary a game pitch thrown in Sarasota, smart and (hopefully) contending teams do not enter the season with two slots of the rotation dependent upon unproven rookies, especially since only Bailey (45) and Volquez (80) have major league innings. Maloney and Cueto have a combined 39 innings at AAA. Therein rests the perceptual problem with the Fogg deal–Reds fans want to keep all their young, raw talent and toss them into the rotation while also sipping Methode Champenois in October.
While legitimate arguments against Fogg center on baserunners allowed, career ERA, help from the great Colorado defense and moving to the GABP bandbox, what’s necessary is a much deeper look at his stats and the importance of No. 5 starters as a whole. One blogger repeatedly points out that Fogg is below major-league average in so many aspects. True, but his standard is for his peer group, No. 5 starters, and in that role he is one of the best.
Fogg was 10-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 29 starts last year for the National League champion Rockies, who would not have reached the World Series without him. Fogg had 12 quality starts for the year and in his final seven starts pitched against his opponents’ No. 1 or No. 2 starter each game, going 3-0 with four no decisions and 3.87 ERA. In that stretch Fogg beat Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks, Chris Young of the Padres and Derek Lowe of the Dodgers while receiving a draw against Barry Zito of the Giants, Dontrelle Willis of the Marlins, Brad Penny of the Dodgers and Jake Peavy of the Padres. Note that Zito, Webb and Peavy are Cy Young Award winners. In fact, 13 of Fogg’s starts were against his opponents’ No. 1 or No. 2 starters, against whom Fogg was 4-3 with six no-decisions for the season.
The role of the No. 5 starter is hugely important, especially for contenders. Days off, injuries, rainouts and rotation changes often mean the No. 5 matches up against an opponent’s best pitchers. In 2007, No. 5 starters in MLB averaged a fat 6.09 ERA with just a .354 winning percentage, revealing the expected talent discrepancy of a No. 1 vs. No. 5 starter. The Reds’ No. 5 starters were 7-13 with a ******** 7.35 ERA.
Before you go yapping about statistical splits and stadium differences, Fogg has always been a pitch-to-contact thrower who gives up a lot of hits and walks. He definitely keeps everyone antsy by nibbling and picking around the plate and piling up about 91 pitches per outing. But he has a nasty out-pitch slider and a decent sinking fastball. He tends to get a lot of groundballs early in the game, tire from so many pitches by the middle innings and leave pitches up and over the plate. He’s averaged 5 2/3 innings per start the past three years. As one scouting report reads, “he is what he is,” nothing more or less.
As for stadium comparison, humidor or no, Colorado is the biggest park in baseball and permits about a one-run greater handicap than any other park. The outfield is a wide-open cow pasture of 347 feet in left, 350 in right, 415 to center and a vast 390 in left-center. While the Rockies play really good defense, there’s no defense for singles that easily turn to doubles and doubles flipping to triples because of that massive field. The Coors Field outfield dimensions are impossible to defend. Don’t look at Fogg’s home splits. You’ll go blind. But 16 of his starts were on the road, where he posted a 4.15 ERA and allowed just a .269 batting average. Really, not bad.
(Sidebar! Sidebar! Rosecrans has Fogg slotted at No. 3, Fay says No. 4 and McCoy isn’t sure he’ll make the rotation or roster, but as C. Trent writes, “all anyone has at this point is a guess.” Shouldn’t a lefty break up the righties and push Fogg to the back, where he would give the Reds a better chance to win against opponents’ No. 1 or No. 2 starters? More about the rotation in the “5 Top Storylines” Series.)
So the real issue here is not the greatness of Josh Fogg, per se, but stopgapping the back of their rotation with a proven veteran. The Reds also signed Fogg without parting with any of the prized youngsters or spending very much money. Fogg can be traded or released if the kids prove they are ready. He has no worth to them as a reliever. But most of all, Fogg doesn’t force the team to carry one of the kid pitchers on the 25-man roster if they are not ready and, thusly, starting their arbitration clocks, which is no small consideration for young arms.
Before screaming about the young pitchers getting their chops by trial and failure in the majors, realize that a young player is gauged by major-league readiness, not minor-league stats. Until they see how the young players perform in at least 3-4 weeks of spring games, the Reds’ management needs a piece of Linus’s security blanket. Fogg is there if necessary and easily dispensable if not. It’s a low-risk move that isn’t as dumb in precaution as it appears in practicality.
–30–
Reds Spring Camp Sidebar: Questions in Sarasota, Part 1
First in a Series
When I asked readers and bloggers last week to submit their five top “Reds Spring Camp Storylines” of 2008, the inevitable happened: they sent questions. Lots of questions. Eighty-two questions, in fact.
As Eric Bell, aka “Champ Summers,” blogged at C. Trent’s personal site, “looking at many of the interesting storylines, they seem to be questions. Going into the spring the Reds have a number of things that are just up in the air, lots of unknowns. To me that is the interesting stuff in the spring.”
So, after outlining the five in-depth storylines we’ll be covering here over the next couple of weeks, I leafed through the responses again and came up with more than a dozen legitimate spring questions that we–the fans–would like to see answered in Sarasota.
Starting here, we’ll address a few of those questions in (fairly) short-answer format as a sidebar feature, “Questions in Sarasota,” between each of the five-part mainbar series. These questions and answers are not in any order of importance. Nor are they paralleling the mainbar series.
They’re just relevant or interesting questions to help you enjoy watching the Redlegs prepare for the 2008 season:
Trade Winds
Q: Are the Reds willing to pull the trigger on a trade in spring training if a glaring need is seen, or will they wait until the trading deadline and hope for something there? –Larry Hampton
A: The Reds are in a waiting period for deals on several levels. They need to get a feel on their competition for the center field job, see how the kids pitch the first couple of weeks of spring games, evaluate their platoon at first base and address any health issues. Then, they can react.
If the kid pitchers are getting battered around, don’t be surprised at a push for Oakland’s Joe Blanton or another mid-rotation starter. Even so, there’s more free agents unsigned at this time than most baseball people can recall. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a couple of low-risk veteran moves, like Kenny Lofton for a leadoff and center field platoon, or perhaps a veteran pitcher (Kyle Lohse?) signed on a low-risk, one-year contract.
Most of all, the Reds need some games to gauge whether they are builders or contenders in 2008. If the Reds feel they are one or two parts from making a playoff run, expect activity. If the kids perform, they’ll probably stand still for a while.
While Krivsky’s stealthiness on personnel moves incites the curious fan base, his secrecy is usually grounded in layered logic. But remember, he has yet to concede the present, regardless of standings deficit, by playing for the future. Baseball Prospectus picks the Reds third in the NL Central. That sounds right. I think the Reds are buyers this spring.
Dissin’ the Donkey?
Q: Will Adam Dunn get a long-term contract or will there be speculation of his pending trade all . . . season . . . long once again? –Eric Davis (no, not 44!)
A: Dunn makes $13.5 million this year, the final of his contract, and he can’t be traded until June 15. The owner and player seem to want each other long term, but at what cost for a guy who routinely hits 40 homers, drives in 100, walks 100 times and strikes out enough to wind-power the Delmarva peninsula?
With Brandon Phillips extended and seen as the face of the Reds’ future, what does that mean for Dunn? Some believe he could draw $18 million a year on the open market, but there’s serious question to what a DH-type with poor defensive skills and a reluctance to play first base can objectively bring on the deflated landscape. If nothing else, Dunn’s options for such a payday are probably limited to American League teams. Perhaps his home-state Texas Rangers would pay that kind of cake.
Dunn’s future in Cincinnati will likely be decided by the June 15 deadline and dictated by the Reds’ place in the standings, Dunn’s performance, the readiness of Jay Bruce, and so forth. You can reason the end of Griffey’s contract after this season means the Reds are in financial shape to make a sizable offer to Dunn.
Question is, where does Dunn fit into the Reds’ short-term plans for long-term contending? Do the Reds even know themselves?
You can also reason that at age 28 Dunn is at the midpoint of his career. He is what he is–pros and cons, nothing more or less. Or is he?
Dunn had a very good August and September (.275 average, 13 HRs, 39 RBI), when he finally started driving the ball the opposite way, cutting down on his strikeouts (only 39 the final two months), putting the ball in play, forcing the defense from the extreme shift to the right side and making pitchers re-think throwing him away and down. It was as if there was an all-new Donkey dissin’ his long-time critics while tipping his cap to conventional wisdom.
What will the Reds do? There’s no middle ground among the fan base on Dunn; they love him or hate him. But how would the Reds replace his offense? On the other hand, does Dunn’s defense and spotty performance with runners in scoring position make him expendable for younger, cheaper and more balance from other batting slots?
These are all questions without answers–for now.
Valenzuela–Sergio, Not Fernando
Q: Will the unheralded and unknown Rule V pick Sergio Valenzuela from Atlanta cost someone else a spot on the 25-man roster like he already did on the 40-man? –Ron Adamczyk
A: It was a shock when the Reds released Jorge Cantu, an even bigger shock they replaced him via the Rule V Draft with a 23-year-old Class A pitcher who gives up as many hits as innings pitched and as many walks as strikeouts.
As you likely know, a player drafted in the Rule V must remain on the 25-man roster for a season after he’s selected or be offered back to his original team for a pocket of cash and three buckets of catfish (farm raised, please). Does Valenzuela stick? Not likely, evidenced by the number of pitchers the Reds keep strolling into camp. But in fairness to Krivsky, he plucked Oakland’s Jared Burton from AA-ball last year and made a trade that brought the troubled outcast Josh Hamilton. Seems Krivsky’s eye for hidden talent has worked out pretty well, eh?
But Valenzuela? How does this move make sense on the 25-man? He’s never mentioned in the equation of young pitchers trying to make the team. Nor does there seem to be room for him to get many spring innings. Could the Reds already have a deal in place with the Braves to keep the kid and drop him to the minors, building even more pitching depth?
Probably. Keep an eye on the Reds’ roster squeeze and keep an additional eye on the Braves for potential moves and injuries that might deliver them a major league-ready body from the Reds’ glut of training camp bodies. Perhaps Coffey or Coutlangus? What about Stanton going home to finish his career?
Now we have your attention. . . .
The Ugly Lid
Q: Are the Reds again wearing that terrible-looking spring training cap from last year–the one with the giant red wishbone “C” clashing with the red cap and sporting the stupid black ear trim? –Mr. Redlegs
A: Yes and no. The big red “C” is gone in favor of the traditional white “C” but the mud-flap ear trim is back. This lid is more tolerable although it’s not distinct enough to be immediately recognized as the team’s “spring training cap.”
Teams like the Reds don’t get the attention, creativity or wealth of merchandise MLB Properties affords the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs and Cardinals, all of whom sell much more garb than the Reds. The last real national bump the Reds had on their merchandise was when Griffey arrived in 2000.
Basically, we get what MLB Properties offers, with no
questions asked.
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
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