Results tagged ‘ spring training ’
5 Things to Watch Down the Stretch of Spring Training
At the halfway point of spring training games, the Reds are in an odd position of having a fairly set roster with several things still in flux. This has been caused by some shaky performances, defections to the WBC, and sudden competitions we didn’t expect. Dusty Baker is no different from most managers–they will usually excuse a poor spring and give the nod to a proven veteran. But the Reds find themselves with a few growing decisions that might exceed the normal ST slump or surprise showing by a youngster.
Here are 5 Things to Watch the final two-plus weeks of spring training:
1.) The Race for the No. 5 Starter
It’s over, it’s been over and it was never really a competition. RH Micah Owings was already the more experienced pitcher, the big arm, and the key to the Adam Dunn deal with Arizona. He’s also put up the Reds’ best spring pitching numbers against far better lineups than his next closest competitor, RH Homer Bailey. There’s a reason the Reds shut down Owings from pitching with a strained shoulder after acquiring him last summer: he could be the best No. 5 starter in MLB.
2.) The Real Race–Long Reliever
Attention turns almost immediately to the one available slot in the bullpen, long reliever. A wide opinion is to keep Bailey on the Reds and let him mature out of the bullpen. I don’t share that belief; maybe you do. But he’s going to face far better batters the rest of the way than he has thus far. We’ll see how Bailey reacts. Anyway, RH Nick Masset did a solid job in the role after coming from the White Sox in the Junior Griffey deal, but his career inconsistency has carried over to spring training. Plus, he’s out of options. Thing is, if not Bailey or Masset, who? Could LH Pedro Viola slip into the race, especially if LH Billy Bray isn’t fully ready from shoulder and hamstring issues? How dumb is it now that RH Ramon Ramirez, 26, nine years in pro ball, left for the WBC?
3.) Logjam for Bench Roles
It appears Chris Dickerson and Jonny Gomes will platoon in left field, leaving a tough competition for two, maybe three, bench roles. With Jerry Hairston Jr. available for outfield or middle infield duty, does that make Norris Hopper and Jeff Keppinger (see No. 4) redundant? The competition for left-handed bat off the bench has come down too 1b Daryl Ward, OF Laynce Nix and OF Jacque Jones. Nix is younger and offers a little more versatility. The struggling Jones could be a roster cut by the end of the week even though ideally he fits the role of versatile, veteran lefty off the bench better than anyone. Meanwhile, the versatility of 2b-C-OF Wilkin Castillo can’t be overlooked. But he doesn’t hit for power and he hasn’t hit anything this spring. To this point, Ward is winning a slot almost by default and he’s the least versatile.
4.) The Growing Keppinger Question
Baker insists utility infielder Jeff Keppinger’s roster spot isn’t in jeopardy but you really have to wonder. Keppinger has not hit since breaking his knee cap last May. With SS Alex Gonzalez looking good so far in his return from a broken knee, is Keppinger expendable? Couldn’t Hairston serve as insurance and backup to Gonzalez, 2b Brandon Phillips and 3b Edwin Encarnacion? It’s a growing question unless Keppinger’s bat heats up.
5.) Who Gets Cut From the 40-Man Roster?
There’s already very little fat with 12 possibilities being under age 26. Hopper is the most likely at this point and I’ll say 2b Danny Richar, who is 26, position limited and would likely clear waivers. Perhaps you disagree and see Masset or one of the young but aging minors relievers (Manuel?) as candidates. Either way, it appears the Reds will have to clear two off the 40-man to open the season.
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Reds Gift Guide 2008: Junket to Spring Training
Last in a Series
By Amy
Staff Mom and Blog Goddess
March in Ohio: Cold, cold, really freaking cold.
March in Florida? Warm gulf breezes, sunshine on your shoulders, fresh grouper sandwiches . . . oh, and baseball!
After a long, baseball-free winter, who isn’t jonesing to see our Cincinnati Reds? Whether you slip this into your own Christmas stocking or share the trip with a friend or loved one, don’t miss this last season of Redlegs spring training in Sarasota.
“Tired old Ed Smith Stadium,” as Marty Brennaman frequently calls the assuredly tired old joint, is admittedly a little–shall we say, rustic? But hey, I’m willing to overlook the sporadically functional plumbing for a few days in the sun with other diehard baseball fans. The crowd at The Ed is great–everyone is chatty and happy to be there, the grounds crew does a little routine to YMCA and the feeling of baseball hopefulness permeates the air.
A few days on the west coast of Florida watching the Reds get ready for a new season is a great time. The players are relaxed and friendly, and it’s the best time of the season to get autographs and pictures. After their own winter’s respite, the players seem happy to be around fans and the game. You’ll also see them in the local restaurants and bars at night in a far more casual appearance than we are accustomed.
With all this information in hand, here is your guide for a junket to Sarasota:
The Games
For simplicity’s sake, we’ll base the trip in Sarasota, even though there aren’t a lot of consecutive home games in this season’s schedule. Last March I spent two nights in Sarasota and saw three games at The Ed; as the 2009 Reds schedule stands, there aren’t more than two home games on consecutive days.
But the Reds play close roadtrips against the Pirates in Bradenton, Phillies in Clearwater and Blue Jays in Dunedin. You can still fit in a round of golf or relaxing time on the beach before heading out to the games, most of which begin about 1 p.m. However, remember that home or away games against the Yankees and Red Sox tend to sell out fast so you definitely want to buy your tickets in advance.
Single-game tickets go on sale Jan. 24. The highest ticket price at The Ed is $18 for a box seat at a premium game. The lowest is $9 general admission and there is absolutely nothing wrong with sprawling in the bleachers, having a beer and working on your tan with the rest of the crowd.
You can also buy tickets as part of a bundle package. This is a good deal and by having your tickets in advance you can better schedule your trip for airfare, hotel and other activities.
Advice from veteran spring training goers: You’ll have far better ticket selection and up-close access to players, coaches and legendary Reds such as Dave Concepcion (photo, above) early in camp. But for warmer weather, time on the beach and other outdoor activities, wait until the last two weeks of March.
Ballpark (heh) Figures for Flights:
Travel websites are your friend and many times you can get a terrific discount on airfare, hotel and rental car by bundling the package. Flying into a regional airport such as Sarasota/Bradenton (SRQ) tends to be little more expensive and might require a stop or two along the way. You can usually save money and perhaps time by flying into Tampa (TPA) or Orlando (MCO) and driving that ragtop rental down the coast to Sarasota and blowing away the wintertime blues.
But shop around (now!) and be thinking at least three weeks in advance of departure for booking. Veteran spring training travelers know the best fares can go long before pitchers and catchers report in February. Airfarewatchdog.com shows USAirways round-trip flights from CVG to Tampa for $256, and to Sarasota for $305, with a 21-day advance purchase. The site also gives you tips on where to book your flight if your dates are flexible or inflexible.
Our pals on the West Coast can do even better: $225 from LAX to Tampa, and $245 to Sarasota. Check various travel sites and the airlines’ own sites, and hey, if you have some frequent-flyer miles just lying around, this is the perfect reason to cash them in.
Because CVG is the most expensive departure city in the country–thanks, Delta–more people in the Cincinnati area are flying out of Dayton. Good idea. Web specials from Dayton to Sarasota on AirTran.com start at about $123 one-way. If you can fly Southwest Airlines, the discount airliner usually has terrific fares for Florida destinations during the winter. For example, flying out of Columbus, Ohio, Louisville, Ky., or Indianapolis to Tampa can be as cheap as $69 non-stop one-way to Tampa.
Remember: Many airlines are now charging $15 per check-in bag each way. You will need to figure in that outrageous extra cost of fare gouging. And Florida has tourism taxes on hotels and rental cars that can also add up.
Where to Stay
Well, it depends. What’s your priority? Sarasota is considered a resort city so you’ll be pressed to find anything–anything at all–for less than $120 a night. The Sarasota beaches are gorgeous but the cost of a decent room near the waterfront hits $200-plus a night. This is where the idea of bundling your trip itinerary through one of the big travel websites might save you substantial money, especially for a stay of five or more nights.
There are many hotel websites such as hotels.com and cheaprooms.com for price and location comparisons. Personally, I like first-hand experience or recommendations from friends, so I won’t pretend to make broad suggestions here.
Are you indifferent about the thread count on your hotel sheets? Go the economy route and stay at the Days Inn Sarasota/Bradenton Airport, suggests LotD’s own DocProc. He’s a regular spring training traveler and says the Days Inn is a good, basic hotel. Rooms range from $85 to $110 per night and come with free breakfast at Chef Paul’s, where “the food is both cheap and good, and the waitresses call you ‘hon’,” says our source. There’s also free wireless internet.
Looking for a little more luxury? The Hotel Indigo (photo, above) in downtown Sarasota might be your choice. A boutique hotel, it’s crisp and clean, has its own bistro and lounge, and is extremely convenient to the stadium, although a bit pricier at $265-$300 per night.
Mr. R says the Helmsley Sandcastle ($209 per night) has been a frequent choice because of a gorgeous pool area and its own private beach (photo, right). I have a feeling that bug-eyed mascot isn’t talking about the landscape when he says he loves the optical workout scenery at the Helmsley.
Another recommendation is the Homewood Suites by Hilton ($177-$209 per night). Not only does this place have a very nice pool but many of the rooms have kitchenettes–not that anybody is thinking of cooking while on vacation. Nope. Just forget that idea. But still, a refrigerator and microwave can come in handy for late-night snacking and early-morning drinking.
The Alternative
Like most of Florida, Sarasota is suffering a real estate meltdown and there are many opportunities to rent a condo at a great price. Check out rental listings from local Realtors, whose license gives you substantial consumer protection against fraud and deceptive rental practices. Avoid dealing with an individual owner unless you know the person or know someone who has dealt with the owner in prior rental agreements. A weekly rental on or near a beach can usually be found for around $800.
Oh, the Food!
Florida Gulf Coast fare is fairly spectacular because of the mixture of foods and cultures. Yes, you can get some absolutely great seafood but there is also an awesome selection of Mexican, Cuban, Asian and Key West-style restaurants, along with some local mom-and-pop favorites.
Take in the shops and sights of St. Armand’s Circle and dine at the Columbia (photo, right), a Cuban and Spanish restaurant that comes highly recommended by LotD’s own C. Trent Rosecrans, who says the white chocolate bread pudding, among other menu favorites, may be the best thing he’s ever had.
Ophelia’s on Siesta Key is known for its excellent seafood dishes and awesome wine list. Da Ru Ma is a unique Japanese/Teppen-style place with tableside cooking and fresh meat and seafood combinations. Try the seaweed salad. Moore’s Stone Crab on Longboat Key specializes in locally caught oysters, great prices and has a terrific view of the mangrove islands.
The Bijou Café on 1st Street is a local favorite where the grouper sandwich draws rave reviews, but don’t overlook the varied Continental selection such as homemade ravioli and filet mignon Parisienne, plus a vast South African wine selection. Spectacular outdoor seating atmosphere.
If you’re looking for dining options closer to The Ed, walk across the street to Gus’ 12th Street Cafe. A favorite haunt of visiting media and locals, especially for breakfast (photo, right), Gus offers inexpensive but good-quality fare. The soup changes daily, but Trent says you can hope to be there on split-pea soup day. Also down the Street from the ballpark is Morel, which has great smoked Atlantic salmon, but has an even better $17 early-bird menu from 4:30-5:30 p.m.
DocProc recommends grabbing a pizza and shooting some pool at local favorite Rico’s across the street from his hotel. Take a bit of a drive for a burger at local fave the Hob Nob Drive-In, or head out to the much-discussed Five Guys chain for burgers and fries, only about 15 minutes from The Ed. I can’t believe I didn’t do that when I was there last March.
Things to Do
While most Reds fans consider ballgames the centerpiece of their spring training trip, Sarasota has a lot to offer a tourist beyond spring training. The beaches are gorgeous, the golf, water sports and fishing excellent, and the element of palm trees, sunshine and outdoor dining are sooooooo relaxing after a winter of cold, snow and blustering misery.
My favorite part of Sarasota (other than the games, of course) is the drive up Longboat Key–a scenic, relaxing atmosphere with lots of interesting-looking places to shop and dine. I visited the Beach House (which is actually in Bradenton Beach), and I can’t find enough good things to say about the beautiful view . . . great place to watch the sunset and high-quality food and drink at a good price.
The key to a great spring training trip is to make plans around the before-and-after of the game. Consider an early morning trip to the beaches such as Venice, Lido, Siesta, Manasota or Casey keys. Or, take a day and explore the islands for nature hikes, kayaking, Mayakka River tours and great Dixieland music at Snook Haven (photo, right) and Jelks Preserve. And be sure to sample the bites of fried alligator tail at the breezy Snook Haven Restaurant and enjoy the lore of Johnny Weismuller and the killer turtles.
There’s also the Marie Selby Botanical Gardens, John and Mable Ringling Museum of Art, Sarasota Classic Car Museum and Sarasota Jungle Gardens–all worthy stops for half-day or rainy-day attractions. DocProc says another fun and cheap attraction is the dog races at the Sarasota Kennel Club, where a certain grumpy mascot claims trying to handicap the “poodles” is no different than lighting a torch to very good money.
Spring training starts Feb. 26 and ends April 2. Go ahead, treat yourself to a great destination site before the Reds more to Arizona in 2010. Merry Christmas!
(Editor’s Note: Another awesome job by blog goddess Amy Ryan, and an immense thank-you to her, Donkey Dizzle Riley, Va.RedsFan Everett and all the emails and commentators who made suggestions and contributions for this long, in-depth series. Rest assured, we’ll never do this again!)
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Questions in Sarasota: Part 4
Even though spring training is almost complete and there’s still several question marks to be answered on the field, many Reds fans have turned their attention to the season ahead. A look at some of the recent queries:
Don’t Look, But . . .
Q: Has anyone looked at the Reds’ schedule in April and May? It’s really tough. With so many young pitchers can they survive this schedule? — Dale Lavritch
A: This is a great question because the Reds get screwed on the schedule–some way, somehow–almost every year. And Dale is right: It’s a brutal April-May schedule against non-division teams. The season opens with five games against playoff teams Arizona and Philadelphia, then a nine-game divisional roadtrip to Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and Chicago. To compound, the Reds have yet another nine-game trip, to San Fran, St. Louis and Atlanta, that slops into May, followed by one home series against the Cubs and then a trip to the Mets. There’s also the first interleague series, against Cleveland, in May, and nine games against the Dodgers and Padres over the first two months. This is just ridiculous.
Oh, the Yankees play Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Kansas City and White Sox 14 times in April.
For all the promise of the young pitching staff and hope for the season, the Reds’ early-season schedule is a killer and could bury this team before Memorial Day. If they can get to June in some semblance of .500 things could get very interesting over the last two-thirds of the season. But if the Reds are 10-12 games under and the young pitchers are struggling. . . . Katie, bar the door.
Readiness
Q: How “ready” for the big leagues are these Class AAA pitchers?–Mary Gerstner
A: As the season approaches and Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez appear to have rotation slots won, this is the absolute biggest question of the Reds’ season. The Reds came to camp extremely thin in the rotation with a third-place finish in the woeful NL Central being hopeful. Now, they open the season with any playoff hopes riding on the coattails of Voltron and Cueto.
Spring training numbers don’t mean so much for pitchers; it’s about the stuff they have and the way big league hitters react and respond. In that regard, Voltron and Cueto have been the talk of all camps. On one side of the fence Reds fans are discussing the number of wins Voltron, Cueto and veteran Josh Fogg can bring to the back of the rotation. But on the other side, almost no one is talking about the number of losses this team will suffer if Voltron and Cueto are not ready for the big leagues.
Hither Bailey
Q: I see no purpose of sending Bailey to AAA. Why not let him work out of the bullpen with the Reds and gain the experience like they used to do with young pitchers in the old days? — Steve Brookes
A: We’ve heard more than a few times that Bailey has nothing to prove in the minors. Oh, yes he does. There, he can prove that he has command of all his pitches (which he doesn’t), that he can get past the fifth inning (which he can’t) and that he can be efficient in pitch counts (which he’s terrible).
Bailey is only 21 and what he’s shown last year and in spring training this year is he makes very few adjustments of how to work hitters from start to start. The best way to pitch, and pitch efficiently, is to attack, attack, attack the strike zone. Voltron and Cueto are making the team because of the way they get ahead in counts, putting the batter on the defensive for their “out” pitches. Bailey piddles and nibbles and shakes off signs, and seems to get lost with his mechanics from one batter to the next. Twice this spring he’s walked the opposing pitcher.
The bullpen, where he would get spot duty and come into games with runners on base, is not the way for him to learn. Especially since he’s awful at holding runners with that long stride. His workload would be erratic with off days and the use of a No. 5 starter, which is why you don’t see more young pitchers brought up in the bullpen these days. It was easier to find consistent work for these kids when everyone used a four-man rotation. Besides, the team behind you gets really, really pissed when a pitcher continually goes out there and struggles with command. You put up some runs, go out on defense and the pitcher needs 27 pitches to get through his half of an inning. Aargh!
No, Bailey needs to go to Louisville and work on the multitude of issues he has to be ready to beat Major League batters. His career is not over. He’s still fine tuning.
Baker’s Dozen
Q: If the Reds would win 12 more games with new manager Dusty Baker than they did last year they would have finished one game behind the Cubs for first place in the NL Central. Can Dusty make up this ground? — Brian Rahe
A: Several e-mails after my “Baker’s Impact” article in Storyline No. 4 asked a similar question: How many more wins does Baker bring? Brian’s estimate of 12 would make the Reds 84-78. Improvement? Yes, but enough to win the division this year? That seems a pinch low. I’ll say at least 87 wins are needed to snag the berth and don’t believe the Reds will win that many unless this pitching staff (i.e., Cueto and Volquez combine for 27 wins) completely surprises.
Catchy Situation
Q: Once healthy, will David Ross improve his offensive stats? Is it more important to be a good defensive catcher and mediocre batter? If Ross cannot improve, will Javier Valentin fill the bill or do the Reds look elsewhere? –Larry Hampton
A: Avid reader Larry sums up the catching situation quickly and thoroughly, and you get the feeling the Reds’ braintrust would like to have a better all-around catcher. The problem is Baker hasn’t really seen Ross, who is battling back spasms, and the qualities that make him so valuable to the pitching staff. If Ross hits .240 he does enough defensively to hold the starting job. But there’s no doubt this team is not going far into the season with either Bako or Valentin starting. They’ll be forced into making a deal if that occurs.
In-Between at In-Between
Q: So do you drop Juan Castro from the roster after Alex Gonzalez is ready? –Dennis Kuhn
A: Odd as it seems, shortstop is one of the more interesting issues of the last positional spot on the 25-man roster. The chances were not great for Castro to make the team as a utility infielder out of spring training until Gonzo suffered his knee fracture. Then, Baker started making not-so-veiled references to his preferred defensive qualities of the shortstop. Obviously, Jeff Keppinger doesn’t fit all these measures; Castro does. Now, the Reds have about 18 players who are capable of playing backup in the infield. And a lot hinges on whether they keep Bako as a backup catcher (and third on the roster) when Ross is healthy. Barring an injury to one of the other starting infielders I don’t see how Castro sticks when Gonzo comes off the DL.
The Junior Equation
Q: Will Ken Griffey Jr. return to the Reds in 2009? –David Boddy
A: That’s the $4 million question. The Reds hold a $16.5 million option on Griffey for next season and there’s almost no chance he will be offered that contract. But what if he thrives under Baker and has a monster season? What if he puts up “only” 30 homers and 100 RBI? Do you let him walk? Here’s what could happen:
1.) Junior walks. There’s a wide feeling he will bookend his career by finishing in Seattle for a season or two, especially if the Mariners, as expected, are contenders.
2.) Junior has a solid first half, is traded midseason to a contender and hot prospect Jay Bruce comes up from Louisville to replace him in right field for the next 10-12 years.
3.) Bruce suffers an injury, setback or doesn’t hav
e a very good season at Louisville and the Reds can’t afford to hand him a position going into next year. They need Griffey as insurance.
4.) The Reds have to pay Griffey $4 million if they decline the option. They can always re-sign him for one year at a lower salary, if he’s willing, that includes the option money.
Here’s the catch-all: for the Reds to be contenders this year, they probably need a big year from Griffey. So if Junior has the big year, what do the Reds do? They can’t trade him midseason if he’s a key element of a playoff push. Then, perhaps, the Reds are backed into a corner on Junior’s contract for next year.
This is an interesting storyline to watch for the first half of the season, especially on the development of Bruce.
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
Observations of Spring Training: Vol. 2
E-6?–The loss of starting shortstop Alex Gonzalez to a fracture of the knee means there’s an open competition for the position. Most people assume Jeff Keppinger will step into the slot based on his terrific second-half performance of last year. But that is not apparently true (yet) as manager Dusty Baker has not given Keppinger an endorsement defensively. Instead, Baker has heaped praise upon Paul Janish’s major league-ready glovework, Adam Rosales’ athleticism, Jerry Gil’s versatility and Juan Castro’s recovery from elbow surgery. If Neifi Perez suddenly appears in camp, oh brother. . . .
Point is, it appears Dusty is saying now is a good time to look closer at the minors kids and see if a starting shortstop for 2010 and beyond is among them. Or, more likely, as Dusty is wont to do, he’s using a little psychological rhetoric to ***-kick everyone to step up and grab the job. Obviously, Keppinger is not going to be handed the position, nor should he be. He’s not earned it yet. Three months is not a career like Gonzalez’s. But the minors kids have an opportunity to earn the job and Keppinger has to play himself out of the job–if that makes much sense. Tie goes to Keppinger.
BREAKING NEWS!–This just in! Scott Hatteberg plays, trade speculation begins! MLBTradeRumors.com says the Yankees, Royals, Giants and A’s are possible matches. If the Giants want to part with Dan Ortmeier or the Royals part with Joey Gathright . . . waitaminute, I may have 108 red stitches in my head but this ain’t fantasy baseball. Sheeez.
Majik Man–After Gary Wayne Majewski’s disastrous first outing of the spring (1/3 IP, 6 hits, 6 runs), almost all of Redlegs Nation was screaming bloody hell for him to be released. Oddly, no one asked for an exorcism. But the lunatic thinking was all over the map–this is the Majik Man’s last chance to save his career; he has the name of a serial killer; and the dumbest (but prevailing) mindset: GM Wayne Krivsky won’t cut the Majik Man because Krivsky will look bad for making “The Trade” with the Nationals two years ago. Here’s a thought: The performances and contracts ($9.9 million combined) of Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns in Washington have already made it look like a good trade for the Reds, regardless of the oft-injured Majewski and Bill Bray (combined for just under $1 mil).
Majewski is not getting released so save your rant. He’d be claimed on waivers in about 8 minutes. There’s this little shortage of pitching going around. It’s also the first week of spring games. He’s only 28, he’s got minor league options, he’s cheap, he’s been successful in the big leagues, and when healthy, his fastball has a lot pop, movement and sink–perfect for GABP. His problem has been strike-zone command, which is very common for pitchers coming off shoulder problems. He can always go back to Louisville and continue to find himself. But for now, it’s a good thing the Majik Man had a stellar inning his second outing. His ERA dropped from 162.0 to 40.50.
Pole Vaults–Anyone else notice that pitching coach Dick Pole, who seemed to have almost no impact or visibility last year under Jerry Narron and Pete Mackanin, seems to have received a shot of B-12 (the illegal stuff) with Dusty’s hiring? Remember, many thought the Reds should have brought in a younger pitching coach for the young arms when a new manager was hired. But Pole, who was Baker’s pitching coach with the Giants and bench coach with the Cubs, has now vaulted (har) to the forefront with the kid pitchers, being very proactive in workouts, mid-inning mound sessions and a meeting of the minds with Baker on a game plan for the pitching staff. Maybe it’s an illusion, or elusion, but me thinks with Narron being a former catcher, perhaps he and Pole had differences on handling the pitching staff. Just guessing. . . .
Ross For Less–David Ross, who is coming off a terrible offensive year (.203-17-39) but is one of the best defensive and play-calling catchers in the bigs, is missing time with a balky back. Obviously you want more offense from your catcher, so this could be a pivotal spring, a pivotal year for him and the position. Ross and backup Javier Valentin are free agents after this season and there’s no heir apparent ready in the system. Ross is making $2.52 mil this year and there’s a $3.5 mil option for 2009 with a $375,000 buyout. Needless to ponder, Ross needs to get on the field, have a better offensive season or he’ll be playing for a lot less in 2009.
Quip Master–The Reds’ media is having a grand ol’ time in their daily meetings with Baker. Mackanin brought great humor and broke the tension long fostered by know-it-all Bob Boone, puppet Dave Miley and tightly wound Narron. Yes, some of you think Dusty is illiterate. Yes, some of you think he’s a fool. Yes, some of you think he hates young players, OBP, runners on the base path, modern music and wine in a box. But you have to go back to Trader Jack McKeon in 2000 for a better Reds manager for quotes, quips, honesty and keeping everyone informed, including the readers/fans. Dusty is very refreshing, even if you take the interpretation of his round-about musings way, way too literal.
Today, Dusty has this laugher, talking about injured pitchers having a better chance nowadays of reviving their careers: “With so many teams in need of quality arms, guys are able to come back more than before. They’re giving their body a natural chance to recover, in addition to rehab. In the old days, there were some guys I knew who were in better shape and were better players in the beer league after they got hurt. They just couldn’t get a chance [to make a comeback]. But they got all the beer.”
The Eye Seez. . . . Ron’s kid, reliever Josh Roenicke making his second appearance of the spring against the Hated Yankees Thursday. Josh blew away the Pirates Saturday with 2 strikeouts in an inning. He had teammates buzzing about his fastball in a batting practice session last week, and he gave up an unearned run with a strikeout in the intrasquad game. John Fay of the Enquirer has mentioned twice in 10 days that Roenicke is the surprise of camp and believes he’ll make the team. And there’s this Dusty quote:
“I hunted with his dad this winter. We talked about [Josh], his background and where he came from. I’ve been following him since he was in high school, as a football player.”
Signing Josh Fogg: Things That Make You Go Hmmm
The Reds signed Colorado’s middling Josh Fogg to be one of their starting pitchers, raising the ire and eyebrows of way too many fans. Much of Redlegs Nation is upset the team didn’t add another frontline starter to make a run at the division this year. The discontent also spreads to the obvious squeezing of the kid pitchers from the rotation competitions and what appears to be another stepping-stone year, as if the last seven seasons weren’t already.
The Fogg signing could be good, bad or indifferent. Who knows? But on the acrylic surface he gives the Reds a piece of badly needed security in case Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez and Matt Maloney prove in spring training they need more minors time. Fogg has at least 26 starts each of the past six seasons, and at a paltry $1 million, his salary is $1.7 million below the Major League average.
With nary a game pitch thrown in Sarasota, smart and (hopefully) contending teams do not enter the season with two slots of the rotation dependent upon unproven rookies, especially since only Bailey (45) and Volquez (80) have major league innings. Maloney and Cueto have a combined 39 innings at AAA. Therein rests the perceptual problem with the Fogg deal–Reds fans want to keep all their young, raw talent and toss them into the rotation while also sipping Methode Champenois in October.
While legitimate arguments against Fogg center on baserunners allowed, career ERA, help from the great Colorado defense and moving to the GABP bandbox, what’s necessary is a much deeper look at his stats and the importance of No. 5 starters as a whole. One blogger repeatedly points out that Fogg is below major-league average in so many aspects. True, but his standard is for his peer group, No. 5 starters, and in that role he is one of the best.
Fogg was 10-9 with a 4.93 ERA in 29 starts last year for the National League champion Rockies, who would not have reached the World Series without him. Fogg had 12 quality starts for the year and in his final seven starts pitched against his opponents’ No. 1 or No. 2 starter each game, going 3-0 with four no decisions and 3.87 ERA. In that stretch Fogg beat Brandon Webb of the Diamondbacks, Chris Young of the Padres and Derek Lowe of the Dodgers while receiving a draw against Barry Zito of the Giants, Dontrelle Willis of the Marlins, Brad Penny of the Dodgers and Jake Peavy of the Padres. Note that Zito, Webb and Peavy are Cy Young Award winners. In fact, 13 of Fogg’s starts were against his opponents’ No. 1 or No. 2 starters, against whom Fogg was 4-3 with six no-decisions for the season.
The role of the No. 5 starter is hugely important, especially for contenders. Days off, injuries, rainouts and rotation changes often mean the No. 5 matches up against an opponent’s best pitchers. In 2007, No. 5 starters in MLB averaged a fat 6.09 ERA with just a .354 winning percentage, revealing the expected talent discrepancy of a No. 1 vs. No. 5 starter. The Reds’ No. 5 starters were 7-13 with a ******** 7.35 ERA.
Before you go yapping about statistical splits and stadium differences, Fogg has always been a pitch-to-contact thrower who gives up a lot of hits and walks. He definitely keeps everyone antsy by nibbling and picking around the plate and piling up about 91 pitches per outing. But he has a nasty out-pitch slider and a decent sinking fastball. He tends to get a lot of groundballs early in the game, tire from so many pitches by the middle innings and leave pitches up and over the plate. He’s averaged 5 2/3 innings per start the past three years. As one scouting report reads, “he is what he is,” nothing more or less.
As for stadium comparison, humidor or no, Colorado is the biggest park in baseball and permits about a one-run greater handicap than any other park. The outfield is a wide-open cow pasture of 347 feet in left, 350 in right, 415 to center and a vast 390 in left-center. While the Rockies play really good defense, there’s no defense for singles that easily turn to doubles and doubles flipping to triples because of that massive field. The Coors Field outfield dimensions are impossible to defend. Don’t look at Fogg’s home splits. You’ll go blind. But 16 of his starts were on the road, where he posted a 4.15 ERA and allowed just a .269 batting average. Really, not bad.
(Sidebar! Sidebar! Rosecrans has Fogg slotted at No. 3, Fay says No. 4 and McCoy isn’t sure he’ll make the rotation or roster, but as C. Trent writes, “all anyone has at this point is a guess.” Shouldn’t a lefty break up the righties and push Fogg to the back, where he would give the Reds a better chance to win against opponents’ No. 1 or No. 2 starters? More about the rotation in the “5 Top Storylines” Series.)
So the real issue here is not the greatness of Josh Fogg, per se, but stopgapping the back of their rotation with a proven veteran. The Reds also signed Fogg without parting with any of the prized youngsters or spending very much money. Fogg can be traded or released if the kids prove they are ready. He has no worth to them as a reliever. But most of all, Fogg doesn’t force the team to carry one of the kid pitchers on the 25-man roster if they are not ready and, thusly, starting their arbitration clocks, which is no small consideration for young arms.
Before screaming about the young pitchers getting their chops by trial and failure in the majors, realize that a young player is gauged by major-league readiness, not minor-league stats. Until they see how the young players perform in at least 3-4 weeks of spring games, the Reds’ management needs a piece of Linus’s security blanket. Fogg is there if necessary and easily dispensable if not. It’s a low-risk move that isn’t as dumb in precaution as it appears in practicality.
–30–
Observations on Reds Spring Training, Feb. 20, 2008
* An omen? John Fay writes about Adam Dunn in the Cincinnati Enquirer and there was this ominous little passage:
Dunn said he feels great. He had arthroscopic surgery Sept. 26. He had been playing with bulky knee for over a year.
“It’s good,” he said. “I haven’t done a lot of agility stuff. But it’s better than it’s been in a long time. It should make it easier to play.”
Okay, you had knee surgery in September. It’s February. And you’ve not done a lot of agility? WTF have you been doing all winter? Even with the most severe knee injuries, physical therapists want you moving the leg almost immediately. They’re not waiting 5 months to start agility.
A lot of you have raised questions over the years about Doc Hollywood and the Reds’ training staff. I blame the front office. Doc is fairly well regarded, but he’s only the slicer and dicer. It’s up to the teams to enforce the rehab. It’s also up to the player to do the work.
* On Hal McCoy’s blog at the Dayton Daily News, Hal says Krivsky remains attentive toward adding a pitcher and said, “If there is one out there we can get, if the price is right …”
Among the unsigned free agent pitchers are Josh Fogg, Kyle Lohse and Jeff Weaver.
“For this time of year, that’s a lot of talent still out there,” said Krivsky. “I’ve never seen it quite like this.”
Dunno about you, but this certainly sounds like the Reds are going to add someone from the free agent list.
* Must be something insidious in the Sarasota water. Now Dusty, ala Narron, is talking about carrying three catchers. If this is, in fact, reality, an already crunched roster crunches out who for Paul Bako?
* Predictably, John Erardi wrote the Enquirer piece about Bob Howsam’s passing. Predictably, he inserted himself into the story as “a reporter” within the first couple of graphs. But he talked with Sparky, whose quotes were great. But overall the coverage from the DDN and Enquirer was lazy, reactive, disappointing, unprepared. Howsam was almost 90. Smart, intuitive sports editors have these packages for aging legends prepared long in advance, updating every once a while as time goes along. Howsam deserved better. I would have liked to read a Lonnie Wheeler perspective today.
* In the Reds’ logjam of lefties (mostly relievers), Fay points out that Scott Sauerbeck has caught Baker’s eye. Could Sauerbeck win a slot in the rotation with Affeldt pushed to the pen? Seems like the best fit for each pitcher’s abilities/qualities. Sauerbeck’s career numbers are better as a starter; Affeldt’s best success has come as a reliever.
Sauerbeck making the team would not bode well for Coutlangus, who I’ve said a few times around the boards doesn’t stick. He’s not that good.
–30–
Reds Spring Camp Sidebar: Questions in Sarasota, Part 1
First in a Series
When I asked readers and bloggers last week to submit their five top “Reds Spring Camp Storylines” of 2008, the inevitable happened: they sent questions. Lots of questions. Eighty-two questions, in fact.
As Eric Bell, aka “Champ Summers,” blogged at C. Trent’s personal site, “looking at many of the interesting storylines, they seem to be questions. Going into the spring the Reds have a number of things that are just up in the air, lots of unknowns. To me that is the interesting stuff in the spring.”
So, after outlining the five in-depth storylines we’ll be covering here over the next couple of weeks, I leafed through the responses again and came up with more than a dozen legitimate spring questions that we–the fans–would like to see answered in Sarasota.
Starting here, we’ll address a few of those questions in (fairly) short-answer format as a sidebar feature, “Questions in Sarasota,” between each of the five-part mainbar series. These questions and answers are not in any order of importance. Nor are they paralleling the mainbar series.
They’re just relevant or interesting questions to help you enjoy watching the Redlegs prepare for the 2008 season:
Trade Winds
Q: Are the Reds willing to pull the trigger on a trade in spring training if a glaring need is seen, or will they wait until the trading deadline and hope for something there? –Larry Hampton
A: The Reds are in a waiting period for deals on several levels. They need to get a feel on their competition for the center field job, see how the kids pitch the first couple of weeks of spring games, evaluate their platoon at first base and address any health issues. Then, they can react.
If the kid pitchers are getting battered around, don’t be surprised at a push for Oakland’s Joe Blanton or another mid-rotation starter. Even so, there’s more free agents unsigned at this time than most baseball people can recall. It wouldn’t be a shock to see a couple of low-risk veteran moves, like Kenny Lofton for a leadoff and center field platoon, or perhaps a veteran pitcher (Kyle Lohse?) signed on a low-risk, one-year contract.
Most of all, the Reds need some games to gauge whether they are builders or contenders in 2008. If the Reds feel they are one or two parts from making a playoff run, expect activity. If the kids perform, they’ll probably stand still for a while.
While Krivsky’s stealthiness on personnel moves incites the curious fan base, his secrecy is usually grounded in layered logic. But remember, he has yet to concede the present, regardless of standings deficit, by playing for the future. Baseball Prospectus picks the Reds third in the NL Central. That sounds right. I think the Reds are buyers this spring.
Dissin’ the Donkey?
Q: Will Adam Dunn get a long-term contract or will there be speculation of his pending trade all . . . season . . . long once again? –Eric Davis (no, not 44!)
A: Dunn makes $13.5 million this year, the final of his contract, and he can’t be traded until June 15. The owner and player seem to want each other long term, but at what cost for a guy who routinely hits 40 homers, drives in 100, walks 100 times and strikes out enough to wind-power the Delmarva peninsula?
With Brandon Phillips extended and seen as the face of the Reds’ future, what does that mean for Dunn? Some believe he could draw $18 million a year on the open market, but there’s serious question to what a DH-type with poor defensive skills and a reluctance to play first base can objectively bring on the deflated landscape. If nothing else, Dunn’s options for such a payday are probably limited to American League teams. Perhaps his home-state Texas Rangers would pay that kind of cake.
Dunn’s future in Cincinnati will likely be decided by the June 15 deadline and dictated by the Reds’ place in the standings, Dunn’s performance, the readiness of Jay Bruce, and so forth. You can reason the end of Griffey’s contract after this season means the Reds are in financial shape to make a sizable offer to Dunn.
Question is, where does Dunn fit into the Reds’ short-term plans for long-term contending? Do the Reds even know themselves?
You can also reason that at age 28 Dunn is at the midpoint of his career. He is what he is–pros and cons, nothing more or less. Or is he?
Dunn had a very good August and September (.275 average, 13 HRs, 39 RBI), when he finally started driving the ball the opposite way, cutting down on his strikeouts (only 39 the final two months), putting the ball in play, forcing the defense from the extreme shift to the right side and making pitchers re-think throwing him away and down. It was as if there was an all-new Donkey dissin’ his long-time critics while tipping his cap to conventional wisdom.
What will the Reds do? There’s no middle ground among the fan base on Dunn; they love him or hate him. But how would the Reds replace his offense? On the other hand, does Dunn’s defense and spotty performance with runners in scoring position make him expendable for younger, cheaper and more balance from other batting slots?
These are all questions without answers–for now.
Valenzuela–Sergio, Not Fernando
Q: Will the unheralded and unknown Rule V pick Sergio Valenzuela from Atlanta cost someone else a spot on the 25-man roster like he already did on the 40-man? –Ron Adamczyk
A: It was a shock when the Reds released Jorge Cantu, an even bigger shock they replaced him via the Rule V Draft with a 23-year-old Class A pitcher who gives up as many hits as innings pitched and as many walks as strikeouts.
As you likely know, a player drafted in the Rule V must remain on the 25-man roster for a season after he’s selected or be offered back to his original team for a pocket of cash and three buckets of catfish (farm raised, please). Does Valenzuela stick? Not likely, evidenced by the number of pitchers the Reds keep strolling into camp. But in fairness to Krivsky, he plucked Oakland’s Jared Burton from AA-ball last year and made a trade that brought the troubled outcast Josh Hamilton. Seems Krivsky’s eye for hidden talent has worked out pretty well, eh?
But Valenzuela? How does this move make sense on the 25-man? He’s never mentioned in the equation of young pitchers trying to make the team. Nor does there seem to be room for him to get many spring innings. Could the Reds already have a deal in place with the Braves to keep the kid and drop him to the minors, building even more pitching depth?
Probably. Keep an eye on the Reds’ roster squeeze and keep an additional eye on the Braves for potential moves and injuries that might deliver them a major league-ready body from the Reds’ glut of training camp bodies. Perhaps Coffey or Coutlangus? What about Stanton going home to finish his career?
Now we have your attention. . . .
The Ugly Lid
Q: Are the Reds again wearing that terrible-looking spring training cap from last year–the one with the giant red wishbone “C” clashing with the red cap and sporting the stupid black ear trim? –Mr. Redlegs
A: Yes and no. The big red “C” is gone in favor of the traditional white “C” but the mud-flap ear trim is back. This lid is more tolerable although it’s not distinct enough to be immediately recognized as the team’s “spring training cap.”
Teams like the Reds don’t get the attention, creativity or wealth of merchandise MLB Properties affords the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs and Cardinals, all of whom sell much more garb than the Reds. The last real national bump the Reds had on their merchandise was when Griffey arrived in 2000.
Basically, we get what MLB Properties offers, with no
questions asked.
(Editor’s Prerogative: Some questions are edited for clarity to pertain to the specific subject.)
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